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Threads 1831 to 1860

Mayor, a question?
Posted by Greasy John on 14-Jul-2005 16:22:41 (#13521)

Regarding blackjack, I recently saw a post that spoke of a situation that I hope you can clarify. It is where a casino might have the rule that you can only double down on 8,9,10 or 11. (I believe the Golden Nugget, L.V. had the 9,10,11 rule when they had their single-deck 3:2 BJ game.) The question is, do you know of any casinos in Nevada where if you had a A,8 and doubled, and drew a 2 that you're A,8 would be treated as a "9" in this circumstance and your final total would be 11 instead of 21? I can see this possibly being the interpretation if the sinage were to state that you could only DD on "Hard" 8,9,10. One could still argue that the sign doesn't state that "if doubling with an ace, the ace loses it's future ability to be counted as an 11."

Greasy John

NONE - when restricted to ...
Posted by zengrifter on 14-Jul-2005 17:52:24 (#13524)

... double 8-11 only and you double on A7, it is still 'soft 18' as well. zg

No...
Posted by The Mayor on 14-Jul-2005 18:04:42 (#13525)

>The question is, do you know of any casinos in Nevada where if you had a A,8 and doubled, and drew a 2 that you're A,8 would be treated as a "9" in this circumstance and your final total would be 11 instead of 21?

I have never heard of this. I can't imagine it.

Thanks for your responses...
Posted by Greasy John on 14-Jul-2005 18:16:27 (#13526)

Over on BJ21, Chi-Riverboat brought up the question and bigplayer responded. Apparently, it is different in Europe. To be honest, it wasn't until about 4 years ago that it would have dawned on me to DD on A,8 if one were limited to DD on 9-11.

Greasy John

Mayor and zengrifter...
Posted by Greasy John on 16-Jul-2005 19:25:15 (#13539)

I know I saw it somewhere else! If you'll read the post by Dog Hand (about five threads down) "Question about house rules" you'll see that at least some casino's differ with your opinions. Mabye I should ask the dealer what would happen if I were to DD with A,8 and catch a 2 (where DD on 8-11 only, and this situation arises).

Is there a problem, Mayor
Posted by Greasy John on 15-Jul-2005 18:30:22 (#13535)

I opened the thread that starts,"Sonny's Comment" and a thread from 7-04 opens. Huh? Just wanted to give you a heads-up. Wonder if I have a virus?

No problem
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Jul-2005 18:44:34 (#13536)

You are just seeing the last 60 days of posts listed here. "Sonny's comment" responded to a very old thread, so you only see the newest part of it. But when you click on the post, the old thread is exposed in its entirety.

Oooooooh. Thanks! *NM*
Posted by Greasy John on 15-Jul-2005 18:54:05 (#13537)

Free 3-month trial Blackjack Insider subscription *LINK*
Posted by Barfarkel on 15-Jul-2005 19:56:45 (#13538)

Henry Tamburin is offering Cardcounter.com members a free three-month membership to his Blackjack Insider Newsletter. The newsletter features advice for blackjack players at all skill levels, playing and betting strategy advice for tournaments from tournament experts, detailed trip reports by Barfarkel and others, and much more. The newsletter is distributed electronically each month and your free membership allows you to read all the current articles and back issues of the newsletter. Start your free three-month membership by clicking the link below.

Cheers,

Barfarkel

Strong endorsement of "Blackjack Insider"
Posted by The Mayor on 17-Jul-2005 15:29:27 (#13542)

I can hardly believe that Henry Tamburin is giving this away for free. Get it! This is the best monthly periodical currently being published that supports advantage gaming. It is the best to come along in a long time. This magazine is a great deal at $19.95 / year. But, for the next three months, it's free!!! Even better.

--Mayor

Great letter to the editor by Bob Nersesian
Posted by The Mayor on 17-Jul-2005 15:06:24 (#13541)

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2005/Jul-17-Sun-2005/opinion/2370081.html

Risk-Averse Indices
Posted by Rickj on 17-Jul-2005 23:14:45 (#13544)

Mayor, I read "An Introduction to Risk" and am now intrigued. Does anyone know where I can find this information? I'd definitely love to compare the Hi-Lo Illus. 18 that I use with a risk-averse style indice.

Every game in my area is 6D, H17, DAS, re-split x3 except Aces, no surrender. Found one place with an extremely simple shuffle and hammered it until they went to shuffle machines.

Risk
Posted by Myooligan on 18-Jul-2005 23:37:10 (#13546)

You can find a good discussion of Risk-Averse Index numbers in Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack III(available at the online catalog at advantageplayer.com, among other places). There are several good discussions of other risk-related aspects of blackjack in it as well, notably the SCORE chapter.

The 'extra' value of 'risk-averse' indices...
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Jul-2005 13:57:11 (#13547)

... versus the tradtional EV-type indices is negligible, though the RA variety is now the preferred standard. zg

The one dramatic difference between RA and non-RA indices
Posted by Theef on 20-Jul-2005 14:03:27 (#13556)

is 10 vs 10. If I recall correctly the RA Hi-Lo index for doubling is very high, like 8; the other RA Hi-Lo indices are no more than 1 away from their corresponding non-RA indices. (As always, correct me if I'm mistaken.)

Yes, correct, and...
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Jul-2005 14:24:56 (#13557)

... 2/3rds of the ENTIRE 'EXTRA' GAIN available from RA indices is derived from this single index adjustment. zg

There's another one
Posted by bfbagain on 20-Jul-2005 18:12:37 (#13560)

although I don't know what it is for Hi Lo, but for AOII, and depending on the game, the index for A6 vs 2 is +8. There are others, but not with the dramatic change that a TC of 6 points gives.

cheers
bfb

9 vs. 7 ?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 20-Jul-2005 19:18:28 (#13561)

That's one that sounds kind of risky, just off the top of my head.

AOII indeces
Posted by BJforBooze on 28-Jul-2005 06:53:02 (#13632)

As far as I know, the indeces for AOII in BJfB are RA and the index for A6 vs 2 is +2 not +8. Where did you get your index?

:-) Understandable. However,
Posted by bfbagain on 28-Jul-2005 11:45:00 (#13635)

They have these things today known as high speed computer chips. And along with two really, really good index generator applications known as SBA and CVDATA, you can produce your very own RA indices that are, in fact, superior to Bryce's.

There's not a great deal of differences, but they're there. You'll find that most of the high stakes BJ players use their own indices. and more specifically, tailored to their specific games.

For clarification's sake, Blackjack for Blood, both the betting ramps, and Advanced Omega II with an ace side count, were targeted for Single and Double Deck. I've been an AOII user since 1992. And if anyone picked up the book today, learned this incredible count system, with the published indices, they would be very happy, and not notice a great deal of difference for moderate stakes.

It just so happens, that A6 vs 2 falls into that category of very high risk play variations, that high stakes players would just as soon avoid, or should I say, should avoid, at the published index of +2. The same type of effect is present with 10 vs 10. The published index is +9, and the correct RA indice is +13.

Hope this helps
bfb

Thanks *NM*
Posted by BJforBooze on 28-Jul-2005 12:15:52 (#13636)

Blackjack in the Czech Republic
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Jul-2005 15:36:53 (#13548)

THE TRAVELING GAMBLER: PRAGUE SPRING
By BJ Traveller (with Mark Dace)
(From Blackjack Forum XXIV #3, Summer 2005)
© Blackjack Forum 2005

excerpt -

"When I arrived in Prague late in August, many advantage players, including ChanceKing and some others from the UK and Greece, were already playing the game regularly. Except for two local counters, most AP's played hit and run for several days. I used to play like that on good games but with much regret as many good games deteriorated while I gave them a rest, playing other not so good games. I started playing a torch burn style for the Prague game, and decided that I would stop only after being barred or having the game deteriorate. The rules of the game were 6D, S17, early surrender, ENHC (however, the dealer did NOT take players' doubles or splits when the dealer had a blackjack, only their original wager), DoA, DAS, no RSA, and re-split to a total of 4 hands. The edge for the player was about 0.2% off the top. The maximum wager was $400. I jumped my bets without disguise, following along with the local card counters who had befriended the casino staff. I was half-shoed very fast while playing heads up at the higher limit table, while the local counters at smaller maximum tables with crowded playing conditions enjoyed 75% penetration. I made about $200 an hour in 2004 playing 4 to 5 hours a day against a slightly trackable 50% penetration game. I played it for two and half months, leaving only because of visa restrictions. A Malaysian card counter, who was winning about $400 a day playing long hours, and Mark Dace, who was tipped by me about the game, were barred during the period I was absent."

...complete article here - http://blackjackforumonline.com/content/Blackjack_And_Casinos_In_Prague.htm

COUNTING CARDS IN COMP CITY
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Jul-2005 15:41:16 (#13549)

COUNTING CARDS IN COMP CITY

By Max Rubin
(From Blackjack Forum Vol. XIV #2, June 1994)
© Blackjack Forum 1994

[The first part of this articleon Las Vegas casino comps is excerpted directly from the first edition of Max Rubin's Comp City. The second part of this article, subtitled Comp City Outtakes, is a Blackjack Forum exclusive.]
Comp Counters Who Count Cards

Do you know how to count cards and win? If the answer is yes, then you, my friend, have the absolute nuts from this day forward. Think about it. If the casino pit bosses ignore you all night long, you can combine comp counting with card counting and win the equivalent of two bets an hour (one in money, one in stuff). If there's heat, cut your bet spread down to a level that's breakeven, and you'll still earn great comps. If you want deep cover, how's this? You can pound booze and never look at anyone else's cards all night long and still be an overall favorite because of the comps. Meanwhile, no one on that shift will ever suspect you're a counter, and you'll be welcome forever. This book was written to show basic-strategy-level blackjack players how to crush casinos by earning comps valued at ten times their gambling losses. Every tactic portrayed in Comp City can also be used by an accomplished card counter, and you won't even have to fade the losses.

Although I've played my share of winning blackjack, I don't pretend to be a world-class blackjack player on a level with the legendary counters who earn hundreds of thousands a year. But based on my extensive experience on both sides of the table, I believe I have some insight worth discussing here. Some of these tips you'll be familiar with and some may be new to you. A few of them threw me off when I was working the floor. If they're not already in your repertoire, incorporating them might gain you years of card-counting longevity.
Laying Cover

You know all about cover, while most bosses don't even know what it means. But that's not to imply that you should underestimate the enemy. A few bosses in every casino have read the books and a handful of them can actually play a winning game. Although their numbers are few, you should assume that at least one sharp boss lurks in every joint.

This is paramount. Don't take your money back when the dealer shuffles. You're giving up a little, but pulling the money back confirms all of the boss's worst suspicions, especially if the shuffle was prompted by your big bet.
Watching the Pit Boss

If a boss catches you looking at him, smile and call him over. Ask him for something-a comp, directions, a recommendation for a show, anything, but don't ever let him see you divert your eyes away from his. It's a dead giveaway that you're up to something.
Tipping

Tip the dealers. You should budget at least 5% of your expected win for the dealers. If you're a big player with a high hourly return, it's almost imperative that you give the dealers at least 10% of your expectation. So what if your profit is reduced by a little blood money? I've had hundreds of conversations in pits about counters and 90% of the bosses believe that counters don't tip. Tipping will buy you years of playing time.

By the same token, if you're betting more than $100 a hand, tip the cocktail waitress $5, no matter what. The bosses will think you're a sport and they know that counters are anything but.
Cover Bets

If a boss is watching, you want to look like a sucker. When you win a hand and he's watching, bet it up no matter what. If you lose, you can go up or down. (If the count's good, bet it up. If it's bad, bet it down.) A boss only has to see you do this two or three times in a session to be convinced that you're a negative-progression or money-management player, not a counter. It will reduce your expected win by a few bucks. But I see it as a valid expense of doing business. Unless you're the type who plays till you're barred, it's the only way to go. There are people in this country who play solo, live in penthouse casino suites, and make half a million dollars a year because they're not afraid to tip and lay cover. Some of these guys lay $500 in cover during a $1,000 session. Guess what the net result is here? $500 an hour, after hour, after hour, after hour.
Sucker Plays That Work

If you want to get a boss thinking you're a stone sucker, slam that first shot of whiskey and bet a quarter for yourself and a quarter for the dealer on the first hand.

Take insurance when you have a natural. You might even insure your twenties when the boss is watching. Do it with conviction and without hesitation (you know you have to protect those good hands). It'll come up infrequently so it won't cost too much overall, but it leaves a lasting impression with the bosses. A move with similar value is not hitting a soft 18 against a nine, ten, or ace. The word is out on this play; hitting the 18 identifies you as a player in the know.

There are other plays. It's fun to use Stanford Wong's Blackjack Count Analyzer software program to discover those that cost you only a few dollars in expectation for hundreds of dollars worth of cover. If you're a comp counter first, and only use card counting to defray your over-the-table losses, these moves are inexpensive indeed.
Appearance

I never trusted a guy who looked like he woke up just to play blackjack. Don't come in on graveyard shift between 4:00 and 7:00 am rubbing the sleep out of your eyes. No true degenerate gambler (which is what you want them to think you are) ever had to set an alarm clock to tell him when it was time to play. Most graveyard bosses are on the lookout for the ghouls nesting upstairs who descend on the tables before sunrise. If you're playing the graveyard shift, stay up all night or make your plays later in the morning when you can wake up naturally.

Don't drink mineral water. Don't ask me why, but an inordinate number of counters drink mineral water. Get juice, coffee, tea, Dr. Pepper, but stay away from the bottled waters. As far as the bosses are concerned, anyone sitting in a casino drinking anything that smacks of health is not to be trusted.
Conduct

Introduce yourself to the boss and give him your VIP card. Talk to him. A lot. If you want to enlist a co-conspirator for the weekend, buy your favorite floorman a $25 three-teamer for Sunday's games (Monday if you're staying that long). The boss will be your buddy for the next couple of days. If you win big, yuck it up. Until you've established a pattern of winning (five or more sessions), if your cover is good enough, there's no way they'll throw you out of the casino for counting. When they like you, some bosses will even warn you if the heat is on upstairs.
Hiding Chips

As a pro, you know you're doing well if you win an average of one big bet an hour. All you have to do is hide one big bet an hour and you'll be doing great in terms of preserving your welcome. Unless you're playing head up, where the boss can determine exactly how many chips are missing from the rack, you can swing with up to two bets an hour and you'll look like a loser forever. Most places are reluctant to bar "losers," unless they're blatant scufflers.
Buying In

If you're a cash player, don't ever buy in with a lot of currency. Don't buy in for $500 and make $15 bets, for example; gamblers don't do it that way. If your eventual big bets will be $100, buy in for $100 and start by playing quarters. Win or lose, you'll be able to move your bets into your normal spread within a few minutes. If you're losing, it looks natural for you to come out of your pocket, especially when you want to bet big. If you're winning, it looks like you're making a parlay play, also very natural. If you bet $5 for the dealer and $25 for yourself early on, you'll look real easy!

When you come out of pocket, let the money play. I haven't seen five counters in my life who let money play (unless they were trying to get around Regulation 6-A).
Drinking

Buy an O'Douls or a Sharps at the bar. Pour it in a glass. Take it to the table with you. When the waitress comes by, ask for a shot of whiskey, making sure the boss hears you. Slug it down when the boss is watching. Then chug the O'Douls. The next time the waitress comes by, order a real beer and sip it slowly. Time for a break. Take the beer and get rid of it. Buy another fake beer, pour it into a glass, mosey back to the table, and chug it while you're talking to the boss. Order another real beer. Then you sip again. When it's a quarter gone (half an hour or so), order another cold one. By now you'll have to go to the bathroom again and, yep, go get some more fake stuff. In a two-hour session you'll consume the equivalent of a drink and a half and look like you're getting smashed. It works.
Wonging

Start your play with the best of it. Wong into a rich shoe and make those important big bets when you have a big edge. If you're good, you can back count the game next to you (make sure you're in a position to watch the other layout) and pop into that one when it gets juicy. Just let the boss know you're moving.
Getting Rid of Bosses

If a boss is hawking your game, get in his face. Be nice, but bombard him with requests. Ask him for reservations for the show. He'll have to do it, even if he doesn't want to. If he comes back to your game, ask him for reservations for dinner. If he comes back again, ask him for a comp for the coffee shop. Keep this up long enough and he'll stay as far away from your game as he can get. The problem is, he'll also get mad, which will probably have an adverse effect on your rating. If you are playing primarily for the comps, you'll have to tolerate a boss's scrutiny.

Comp City Outtakes: Beat the Heat

How can you tell when there's heat? It's pretty simple. If a floorman who's been gunning your game gets on the phone, and another boss comes over to watch your play (and they both talk while trying not to move their lips), it's getting warm. If either of them picks up the phone after that, you got heat!

Sometimes the second boss will go over to the computer terminal and pull up your "profile." The first thing he looks for is a history: how long you've played (lifetime!), how much they should have won, how much they have won, and the difference between the two.

It you're somewhere within the normal range, they'll surmise that you may not be that dangerous a blackjack player.
Theoretical Casino Win $10,000
Actual Casino Win $ 8,000
Difference $ 2,000

If they see that you're only losing about 10% of what is expected, their radar switches on and they'll surely tell the eye to watch what you're doing.
Theoretical Casino Win $10,000
Actual Casino Win $ 1,000
Difference $ 9,000

What you don't want them to see, although it's sometimes impossible not to if you book an extraordinary winner, is any kind of winner at all, especially if you have 100+ hours of play.
Theoretical Casino Win $10,000
Actual Casino Win ($ 1,000)
Difference ($11,000)

They know they should have won $10K, but they've lost $1K. What does that mean to them? Something's wrong, no doubt. What does that mean to you? If you want to play over a long period of time in one particular house for comps, monetary profit, or both you'd better learn to hide two units per hour. But the issue here is heat detection and what to do about it. Most card counters really sweat the boss's scrutiny, but they don't need to. If a floorman is standing over your game and watching every hand, he probably suspects that you're counting, but it's highly unlikely that you're already being watched from upstairs. You still have time to implement some damage control. If you keep moving your money, and he goes to the phone, it's time to go on red alert. (Floormen can't order a surveillance check. The order must come from a pit boss or higher.) Here's what happens in most places:
Floorman agitated, calls bigger boss ==>

Big boss watches you and/or pulls up your computer file ==>

Big boss notifies surveillance ==>

Floorman "gives you air." (Acts disinterested so the "eye" has time to evaluate your play.) ==>

Eye tries to match your face to mugs in Griffin Book. If no match, they do a "skills check" (30-60 minutes). Reports to management. ==>

If you are labeled as "counting," you will be barred and possibly photographed. If you are labeled as "not counting," your name is logged as such, and you have a free pass (until you win a lot of money).

So what do you do when you know you're under the microscope? At this point you have three options: leave, keep counting, or lay some cover.

Leave - If you beat a hasty retreat, every time a pit clerk calls up your computer file (marker, rating input, comp request, etc.), SKILLS CHECK! flashes on the screen. That means you'll be branded as a potential counter for at least the duration of this trip and maybe for a whole lot longer. Your counting life expectancy in that joint has just been reduced.

Keep Counting (and moving the money) - Sure, it takes anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour for a good surveillance expert to tag you properly. You should be able to win at least a piece of a big bet before they take your picture, post it in the security office, give it to Griffin, pass it around to other casinos, bar you for life and terminate your comps. Nice move.

Play Like a Chump - If not for the rest of the trip, at least for the next couple of hours. You'll still get your comps and you'll still be a slight favorite, but you can't move your money with the count, unless it's real, real natural. What you must do is keep moving your money randomly, with no consideration of the count. If all of a sudden you turn into a flat bettor, you're going to embarrass the boss who alerted surveillance, and he's going to follow you like a dog in heat forever.

I know this play's going to crumble your corks, but the heatiest play you can ever make is not insuring a natural. It'll cost you about eight bucks every time you do it (assuming a $100 bet), but if you have a snapper and don't insure, the other players will get bug-eyed, the dealer will stop the game and ask you why you didn't, and the boss will head straight to the phone and put Big Brother on your butt, especially if the dealer doesn't have the ten. You'll only get a natural against a dealer's ace once every four or five hours, so give up the two bucks an hour and you'll live to play another day (or swing).

If you choose to play like a chump, you can decide for yourself how to alter your play depending on how much you're willing to give up in expectation. Here are some examples. None of these plays will cost you more than $4. (The following were derived using Stanford Wong's Blackjack Count Analyzer, assuming a $100 bet on a six-deck shoe.)
Player Dealer Up-Card Cover Play Cost

14 4 hit $0.40
14 6 hit $1.80
12 3 stand $1.80
11 A double $3.10
A7 10 stand $3.50
10 10 double $3.60
12 2 stand $3.90
13 3 hit $4.00

Index Plays

The real savvy guys upstairs know the index plays. If you suspect you're being watched, don't use them. Either stick to basic with a few cover moves or vary from them on things that look natural, like standing on 16 vs. 10, etc. Do not hit stiffs against stiffs when you should. It's a dead giveaway.
Spotters

If you get spooked by someone on your game who appears to have a keen interest in what you're doing, remember this: spotters do not sit on blackjack games. Period. They stand behind or beside the game. They try to remain invisible, but they can't. If you want to spot one (or freak him out) stand up when you play. If you suspect he's trying to see your cards, move your body so he has to move his. Very few disinterested game watchers will contort themselves to watch your cards. If he's squirming like the snake that he is, he's a spotter. Gaming agents and coppers are a different matter (they will play on a game), but if you're just counting, you don't have to worry about them.
Counter Catchers

Most clubs have a designated "counter catcher" (who's called to confirm the suspicions of spotters, other bosses, etc.). They usually work in the pits or upstairs. The technology they use to catch counters is getting more sophisticated every day. Suffice it to say (and it's always been this way): It's much more important to have a world-class cover than a world-class card counting system. The only way they'll catch you is if they suspect something in the first place. Don't let them think that you're smart. Don't be a stiff. Don't be a nerd. And don't move your bets up and down precisely according to published guidelines (counter catchers read the same books). If you play with a casual and relaxed style, bosses aren't compelled to surveille you.
Comp Notes for Team Players

If you're calling plays for a BP, always get rated, but not necessarily with the same name every time. You'll be amazed how much money you'll save the team's bankroll if you keep expenses down by getting free rooms and food.

If you're calling plays and the BP scores a big gourmet room comp, you can't go. How would you like for your (un)favorite shift boss to saunter in to say hello to the BP and see you, a measly $25 bettor, swilling $100 wine with him? You wouldn't. If you want to feast together, do it with room service. The same goes for other members of your teams. If you want to party together, do it when you make bank. And do it in a joint other than where you went over the top.

For the same reasons, don't ever use a BP's gourmet comp for yourself in a Las Vegas casino. The shift bosses often cruise the big rooms at least once a night. They look at the maitre 'ds comp log and then exchange pleasantries with the RFB customers. You might wind up exchanging blows if you're the wrong guy in the wrong chair. �

Are you sure those numbers are right?
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Jul-2005 20:56:03 (#13553)

14 4 hit $0.40
14 6 hit $1.80
12 3 stand $1.80
11 A double $3.10
A7 10 stand $3.50
10 10 double $3.60
12 2 stand $3.90
13 3 hit $4.00

Seems like hit 14 vs. 4 and hit 14 vs. 6 should be way more expensive than hit 13 vs. 3.

some numbers
Posted by stainless steel rat on 20-Jul-2005 10:28:45 (#13555)

From wizard of odds.

13 vs 3 hitEV: -.29 standEV: -.25
14 vs 4 hitEV: -.33 standEV: -.21

So wrong play on 13 vs 3 costs you .04 in EV, wrong play on 14 vs 4 costs you .12, which should turn into 4 bucks for the first, 12 bucks for the latter, assuming a $100 bet...

The other factor is how often should one of those happen in an hour, to figure the hourly cost for the play. A play might be expensive, but if it rarely happens, it is less so...

Legends of Poker: Bobby "The Wizard" Hoff
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Jul-2005 15:46:54 (#13550)

Legends of Poker: Bobby "The Wizard" Hoff

July 12, 2005

By Al Moe | pokernews.com

Staying busy, and staying focused, is something I admire greatly. One of my college basketball coaches once told me, "Al, you've got to be mentally tough to excel at this game, you gotta focus, man." Alas, he may have been picking up on one of my weaknesses - staying "in the moment" long enough to make excellent decisions. Poker players learn to do this, or they learn to flip burgers.

In the 1970's, every one of the $10,000 World Series of Poker Champions came from the south, and most of those were from Texas. It must have been something in the water down there. Like Doyle Brunson, Sailor Roberts and Jack Straus, Bobby Hoff was a college athlete in the 1950's. Fresh out of Victoria, Texas, Bobby won a golf scholarship to play for the University of Texas in 1958, but like his fellow Texans, he found that poker was easy - and lucrative. And like so many other players, he was certain that he was a terrific poker player. Golf fell by the wayside.

Bobby realized he wasn't quite as good a poker player when he stepped foot off the University, and when his winnings were gone, he got a job as a dealer in a local casino. Each night when his shift ended, Hoff would find a poker game and play until he was exhausted, or his bankroll was.

After reading Edward O. Thorpe's book, Beat The Dealer, Bobby and a friend started playing blackjack. They learned the 10-count, and watched as their bankroll rose and fell at the whim of the cards. One night that bankroll reached $10,000, but by morning, Bobby was drunk, busted and disgusted. The same thing happened a few months later in Reno. Up, down, way up - busted.

It's a hard life, living on gambling winnings, especially if you have a compulsive nature. Bobby was able to save some serious money after he forming a blackjack team with a well-staked player from Corpus Christi, Texas. After nearly five years of play, the team found it all but impossible to get a decent game in Las Vegas (or even Reno or Lake Tahoe), without getting shuffled-up on or being barred.

The Horseshoe Casino in downtown Las Vegas had just put in a poker room, and Bobby began playing seriously again. He ran into some of the better players of the time, and eventually his six-figure bankroll was just a faded memory. Fortunately, his best friend, Sailor Roberts, staked him in other poker games, and Hoff began to beat the local pros.

The games were good, if you didn't mind sitting at the table with players like Doyle Brunson, Johnny Moss or Puggy Pearson. Since the early 1960's there had been an exodus of top pros to Las Vegas (ever since Felton "Corky" McCorquodale introduced the game of hold'em there), but W. C. Fields may have had a premonition about the games when he said, "Never give a sucker an even break," and there were plenty of suckers in those games.

Poker author and professional player Bob Ciaffone, calls Bobby Baldwin "brilliant, a pure player, very polished," and while Hoff says he learned a lot about poker from Doyle and Sailor, but he calls Bobby Baldwin the best no-limit player he ever saw. Baldwin was coming off a win in the championship of the 1978 World Series of Poker when the 1979 series started. After three days of play, the field was reduced to just eight players: former champions Johnny Moss and Bobby Baldwin; and challengers Crandall Addington, Hal Fowler, George Huber, Sam Moon, Sam Petrillo, and Bobby Hoff.

Hal Fowler was the short stack, but it was Baldwin who left the final table first when he flopped a set of eights only to be beaten on the river by trip aces held by Sam Moon. That hand set the mood for things to come.

A quiet public relations expert from Los Angeles, Hal Fowler, began accumulating chips at an alarming rate. His runner-runner flush draw took down a pot; his baby pocket pair tripped on the flop and won; his ace-10 held up for high hand. It was a rush that had started three days earlier.

By the time the play was heads-up, Fowler was taking Valiums like candy, and he was certainly relaxed. He and Bobby Hoff fought for over ten hours, the lead changing subtly every hour or so. Two hands stand out in Hoff's mind from the dogfight. The first saw him with a chip-lead of about $150,000 when he got Fowler all-in with a pair of jacks to Hoff's queens. However, a river king paired Fowler's kicker and won him the pot.

Later, Hoff made a preflop raise with pocket aces. Fowler called with 7-6 offsuit. The flop was jack-three-five, giving Hoff top pair, and he bet half his stack. It wasn't enough to scare off Fowler, however, and when a gut-shot four hit the turn, he took down the rest of Hoff's chips and won the championship.

Bobby found no solace in his prize money of $108,000, and his quest for a gold bracelet still haunts him. He finished 25th in the 1993 $10,000 WSOP final, sandwiched between Chip Reese and Mike Sexton, but his 1979 second-place finish remains his best WSOP performance.

There have been plenty good days since then, and The Wizard continues to play poker in Los Angles and at tournaments across the country. The next time I see him on television, I hope it is as the final player standing at his most recent tournament.

The above describes Hoff's beginnings as a COUNTER *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Jul-2005 15:16:01 (#13565)

Beating The Casinos in Play and in Court
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Jul-2005 17:57:50 (#13552)

Beating The Casinos in Play and in Court

By Marcus K. Dalton
Tribune Media Group | July 19, 2005

Eliot Jacobson compares the average casino customer with the Hispaniola islanders who were not able to see Christopher Columbus' ships when they arrived at the New World in 1492.

"The point is the islanders were familiar only with small boats and canoes. They had never seen anything like those large ships," Jacobson explains. "It was the shaman who knew how to think differently and could look out to sea and point out the ships."

Jacobson, a University of California Santa Barbara math and computer professor, gaming management consultant and a skilled blackjack card counter as well, compares "advantage players" - casino customers who have a strong chance of winning - with the 15th century shaman medicine man who knew how to think outside the box.

Author of The Blackjack Zone and proprietor of an advantage gambler website www.CardCounter.com, Jacobson has highly specialized casino skills. He excels at one game. But, Jacobson explains, there are other advantage players who are much more open-minded when it comes to beating the house.

An advantage gambler is someone who increases his or her chances of winning by taking advantage of a dealer's or casino's mistakes or by means such as card counting. Advantage players look for opportunities in a casino," Jacobson says. "Every game has the potential for opportunity. It might be that a roulette wheel is defective. A good advantage player will exploit these opportunities."

Consider, for example, Stanford Wong, one of the best advantage players who ever sat down at a 21 table. Author of Professional Blackjack, considered the card-counting Bible, Wong recently released book about scientifically beating... craps? Wong also runs an advantage gambler website a www.BJ21.com.

"Its called Wong on Dice," said Wong, who holds a Ph.D. in finance from Stanford University, and who made a very good living playing 21 in Las Vegas casinos in the 1960s.

Wong says he's been experimenting with craps for more than a year, and he's determined it is possible to "grip the dice properly and throw them properly to cause less-than-random outcomes."

For Wong, beating craps is a challenge, which makes the game preferable to 21.

Casinos Strike Back

Today, the major resorts no longer have direct ties to organized crime, and many are holdings of publicly traded corporations. They no longer use mechanics to cheat advantage players. But floor supervisors at many resorts still are very serious about trying to stop legal "advantage play," which they believe can skim as much as 3 percent of a casino's winnings.

Several Las Vegas lawyers, however, say there is an emerging pattern of intimidation and excessive force, with casino security, state gaming officers and the Metropolitan Police Department often working in concert to trample constitutional rights, civil liberties and gaming regulations to deter advantage gamblers from playing at local properties.

Casinos increasingly are refusing to tolerate certain kinds of behavior that damage their winnings, even when the courts have ruled that behavior is legal, the attorneys say.

The problem has been emerging from the backrooms of casinos into wider public view through a bevy of legal cases in Las Vegas in which advantage gamblers have sued casino-hotels, Gaming Control Board agents and police officers after they have had their winnings confiscated, been detained, roughed up by security and police officers and even charged with unrelated minor offenses.

Many people are reluctant to file suit against the casinos or police agencies, even in cases where criminal charges have been filed against them. Even when advantage gamblers have filed suits in the past, judges often upheld convictions or dismissed the plaintiffs' claims in favor of the casino and police versions of what happened.

One who understands this is Las Vegas attorney Bob Nersesian, who represents several advantage players who charge that their civil rights have been violated in casinos in recent years.

In a November 2004 article entitled "Bringing Down The House, Las Vegas Mercury author Bob Shemeligian quotes Nersesian and reviews some of the attorney's cases against casino abuse -

- "The casino is at war with everybody - every single player," Nersesian says. "Every day, the casino wins the war against the average casino patron. They do this by winning from the patron. But when it comes to their war against advantage players, I would suggest the casino uses tactics not approved by the Geneva Convention."

- Among advantage players who are Nersesian's clients:

• Steve Bernier, who in 1999 at the grand opening of the Resort at Summerlin noticed a bank of $1 slot machines mistakenly set for payouts for $100 machines. Bernier won $27,000 playing those machines, but left most of the money on his playing card. Two days later, when he returned to the casino, he was denied his winnings, taken to a back room, handcuffed and detained against his will. Bernier is suing the Nevada Gaming Control Board, since the owner of the hotel subsequently went bankrupt, and the property was sold. Bernier claims state agents interrogated him at the hotel, threatened to charge him with several felonies and partially strip-searched him.

• James Grosjean, author of Beyond Counting, a manual describing legal ways to beat three-card poker, craps, baccarat and even the big six wheel, recently won a $400,000 verdict against the Imperial Palace in a wrongful imprisonment suit. Grosjean also successfully sued Caesars Palace, two Gaming Control Board agents and the Griffin Agency, which maintains a dossier on advantage players. In the actions, Grosjean contends he was detained at Caesars Palace in April 2000 and at the Imperial Palace nearly a year later. Grosjean contends he was collared at Caesars and then held in custody at the Clark County Detention Center after a session at the 21 tables in which Grosjean won because of a sloppy dealer who was exposing the hole card. At the Imperial Palace, Grosjean was spotted simply walking through the casino and subsequently detained by security guards who, Grosjean contends, interrogated him and threatened "to smack his head against the wall."

• Ray Cagno, a personal fitness trainer who was convicted of disorderly conduct after he was led away in handcuffs from the El Cortez's gaming tables by security guards (as he yelled out to casino patrons to call police to help him). Cagno, who subsequently sued the casino and the casino and three Metro Police officers, appealing his conviction.

In the case of Ray Cagno, Judge Joseph Bonaventure tossed the case after finding Cagno's arrest was illegal and unauthorized under Nevada law.

Judge Bonaventure found the El Cortez, in essence, had cooked up charges against Cagno to justify its policy of treating advantage gamblers harshly, and that there had never been probable cause that any crime had been committed despite his arrest by Las Vegas police.

"The idea of someone in custody being arrested for complaining about the casino's improper actions is without merit and the judge's rule was proper," said Allen Lichtenstein, general counsel for the Nevada chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union.

"It's good to see the courts recognize that even if people are advantage gamblers, they still have constitutional rights," he said.

The Nevada Supreme Court has ruled there is nothing illegal about advantage gambling, which can include such techniques as card counting, shuffle tracking and playing slot machines that are paying out more than their fair share. Nevada's highest court, as well as courts in other gambling states, have ruled advantage gambling is legal since players don't manipulate any cards or machines. Rather, they do nothing more than use normal intelligence much as a bridge player would use watching other players.

Las Vegas attorney Bob Nersesian has handled about 30 advantage gambling cases, said he and his client "feel vindicated, to a degree."

"I'm elated the judge saw the city's failure. I'm heartened and disheartened at the same time that you have to go through the judicial process to have your rights recognized under the law when they should be clear as day," he said.

Ultimately Cagno's lawsuit for unspecified damages against the El Cortez, was settled.

Bonaventure ruled that the civil liberties issues involved in the federal case were moot in District Court because of the dismissal of what he ruled was an illegal arrest, but Cagno refiled his case against the three arresting Metro officers in federal court.

Nersesian said Bonaventure's ruling that Cagno's arrest by Las Vegas police had been illegal cut the legs out of the defense offered by the police in the civil action.

District Court Judge Michael Cherry last December handed down a similar ruling that found the Flamingo Laughlin liable for false imprisonment in the arrest of Tony Vincent, another advantage gambler. A host of other cases are said to be pending, although they are impossible to trace because there is no record advantage gambling is the root cause of a case until the trials proceed.

Many Las Vegas lawyers say there is an emerging pattern of intimidation and excessive force being used by casino security, state gaming and Las Vegas police officers, who often work in concert to trample constitutional rights, civil liberties and gaming regulations to deter advantage gamblers from playing at local properties.

Cagno had been convicted of disorderly conduct because of an advantage gambling incident at the El Cortez and appealed that conviction.

Cagno's disorderly conduct arrest stemmed from his yelling out to casino patrons to call police to help him as he was being led away in handcuffs by hotel security guards.

Video footage Nersesian obtained from the El Cortez shows Cagno hole carding -- meaning he was able to see the blackjack dealer's hole card because of the dealer's mistakes -- in October 2002. He is approached by two security officers who ask him to stop playing. The tapes show Cagno getting up and walking toward an exit.

As he approaches the door, however, he is blocked by two more guards and is forced to the floor, handcuffed and taken to a security holding cell.

Once in the security office, the tapes show Cagno demanding that police be called.

When police officers did arrive at the casino, however, Cagno's bad luck seemingly turned even worse.

Instead of getting help from the police, the officers charged Cagno with disorderly conduct for "yelling, screaming and struggling with a security officer," based on a citizen's complaint, according to motions filed in the case.

However, the complaining witness testified in court that she was told to file the complaint, which actually was written by a police officer, and that she had not even read the complaining document.

"Here he's trying to file a report because of his battery and false imprisonment by El Cortez, and he ends up in jail with the police claiming he's the perpetrator," Nersesian said.

"There's a pattern and practice where the police, both gaming agents and Metro, ignore any kind of complaint a patron makes against a casino about wrongs they commit distinguished from disputes they jump on, but when it comes to personal liberty issues and imprisonments by casinos, it is fundamentally impossible to have public agencies prosecute casinos," Nersesian said.

What makes the Cagno case stand out, Nersesian said, is that he "went the extra mile to make sure his rights were protected and when he did that, they ground him out like a dirty little cigarette butt."

'Cheats' Who Are Not

Steve Bernier, unlike most of Nersesian's clients, is suing the Gaming Control Board directly since the original owners of the Resort at Summerlin, Swiss Casinos of America Inc., subsequently went bankrupt. The resort has been taken over by Hotspur Resorts, which operates the hotel as a JW Marriott, and leased the property's Rampart Casino to Las Vegas-based Millennium Management.

While held in custody, which civil liberties attorneys say was unconstitutional, Bernier was interrogated by security guards without being read his rights and with state Gaming Control Board officers watching from behind a one-way mirror.

Take the case of James Grosjean, a doctoral candidate in economics at the University of Chicago and author of "Beyond Counting," a "how-to" gambling manual on beating the odds.

Grosjean, who was winning a card game thanks to a "sloppy" dealer and his own "hole carding," where a player tries to win an advantage by catching glimpses of a dealer's unturned cards, was handcuffed and detained by security guards at Caesars Palace on Good Friday in 2000 for cheating.

A spokesman for Park Place Entertainment, which owns Caesars Palace, while declining further comment on the case, said casino records indicated he was suspected of marking cards, but police spokesman Jose Montoya said there is no record Grosjeans ever was arrested or charged with any crime.

The police spokesman said it is not unusual for a player to be detained while an investigation is in progress and then released when there appears to be no probable cause.

"In the old days, if a boss spotted (hole carding), they'd fix the dealer. Sometimes, they'd even have a sense of humor," Grosjeans said.

That day, however, Grosjean and his friend were detained at Caesars Palace for five hours and then taken to the Clark County Detention Center. Grosjean's friend was released the next day, but Grosjeans was held in custody for 4 1/2 days.

The gambler admits he was never physically abused by law enforcement officers but calls the incident "very intimidating. (Jail) is a very stressful place. My greatest fear was from the other prisoners."

Still, Grosjean said, "We didn't do anything illegal, so (we thought) if we talked with them, we'd be out in time for dinner. That's where we underestimated the malice."

What Grosjean calls malice became apparent weeks later when he visited the Imperial Palace.

"I wasn't even playing. I noticed a guard watching me, so I left, but he followed and he did get physical. He put his hands on my chest and he blocked me from leaving," said Grosjean who is 5 feet 7 inches tall and weighs 124 pounds. The guard was about 6 feet 2 inches tall, he said.

Nersesian said a Gaming Control Board supervisor had contacted the Imperial Palace after the Caesars Palace incident, saying if Grosjean was seen, he was to be called.

Instead, two Gaming Control agents told Imperial Palace security not to let Grosjean leave the property.

Grosjean was handcuffed again and led to a security cell by six guards who emptied his pockets, interrogated him and threatened "to smack his head against the wall."

"That's the attitude. They like hurting people," Grosjean said.

In the meantime, the agents reached the Gaming Control Board supervisor who was "incredulous he was being held," Nersesian said.

"Here is a guy who is absolutely innocent of anything, yet he was held and incarcerated and, even once they figure out they're wrong, they continue to hold him," Nersesian said.

The Imperial Palace incident "is absolute proof that (security officers) who affirmatively acknowledge they have no reason to detain someone, still feel at liberty to detain an individual, and the system and judges back each other up," Nersesian said.

Grosjean said what "shocks me is there are people in authority who are complicit. I admit I am a problem for casinos. If I were them, I wouldn't want me playing either. But I'd kick them out."

Civil liberties attorneys, like many of the victims, are particularly critical of the role of the Police Department and the Gaming Control Board in these incidents.

"Too often, the police seem to act as if they are an adjunct of the casinos' private security forces rather than public servants whose job it is to protect everyone and treat everyone equally. We've had the opportunity to experience this firsthand far too many times," the ACLU's Peck said.

While Nersesian believes Nevada's casinos are slowly beginning to recognize the civil rights of advantage players--following court-ordered judgments against them or settlements paid to those illegally detained--it is still much more dangerous for an advantage player to count cards in Nevada than in other states, such as New Jersey, where the rights of players are recognized by the courts.

"Last December, in 30 minutes, I was thrown out of four places," said Professor Jacobsen.

"Being a card counter is akin to a cheat, but this is not cheating. There's no sign on the wall that says 'thou shalt not use thy brain.' It's not illegal to make a bet at blackjack, but when I make a bet, I get tossed. When others bet, they get comps," Jacobsen said.

As long as no devices are involved, card counting is not illegal. In fact, the notion that blackjack can be beaten by players who pay attention to the cards is the exact reason the game is so popular. Booklets that teach counting techniques are sold in every casino in the state. More advanced books, sold at places like the Gamblers Book Shop, have created a community of a few thousand advanced players who say the casino paranoia is getting ridiculous.

"They're tougher than ever before. If the casinos continue at this antagonistic level, they'll kill the game of blackjack, and people will be standing around the tables," said Howard Schwartz of Gamblers Book Shop.

In general, players say, casinos will either tell the counter to stop playing or will 86 them off the property. More recently, though, players say the ante has been upped. Players find themselves handcuffed, hauled into backrooms where they can be detained for hours, questioned, photographed, threatened and sometimes roughed up.

Growing ranks of players contend this isn't just an issue for card counters, but rather for anyone who loves blackjack. The casinos have gone to such lengths to defend against counters that the game itself has changed radically and may no longer be beatable. They compare it to a rigged slot machine.

No wonder many skilled 21 players have turned in their counting charts and decided to turn their attention to other lucrative casino action--such as the sports book.

Sports Books on the Defensive

The sports books are constantly on guard against advantage players. They don't allow the use of cell phones or pagers anywhere near the books, and they often scrutinize large bets, especially those that follow movements in the line. In other words, if a bettor puts a lot of money on a team that's drawing a lot of interest and wagers from the betting public, he obviously knows something--perhaps that the line is inaccurate and the team he's betting is a real bargain. This type of action worries sports book supervisors.

"If we noticed there's a pattern developing, we don't necessarily back them off. We might ask them to limit their action to one visit per day, and generally they're cool. They understand," says an executive of Station Casinos.

One of 'them,' a former professional Jai Lai player turned poker room manager known as 'Hounds' in advantage gambling circles, turned his talent toward beating the books at dog racing.

"I became very accomplished at analyzing and handicapping dog races to the point that I had a significant advantage over the casinos," Hounds reminisces. "That's when things began to get nasty." He remembers being yelled at and verbally abused, by the sports book managers of the Palms and the Mirage, simply for winning too often. He was ultimately denied the opportunity to bet on dog races at most of the books in town and was often wrongly slandered as belonging to "the syndicate" and other nonsense, he chuckles.

"Some places take all the action, and some book the faces. It's a term that's been around. In other words, it depends who's making the bet," says Harrah's race and sports book director Howard Greenbaum.

Greenbaum laughs when asked whether he can recognize an advantage player. "You mean the ones we call wise guys," he replies.

Some sports bettors question why a sports book manager should ever be concerned with a particular wager, since every game draws action from both sides, and the outcome should not concern the sports book. But Greenbaum said that's not the way it works.

"When a customer wins, he's winning from the casino," Greenbaum explains. "When a bet is made in the race and sports book, the person is betting against the house. It's much different in racing, which is parimutuel wagering, meaning the casino simply takes a certain amount off the top."

Griffin the Dinosaur

Grojean's suit against Caesars showed how exaggerated and sometimes outright false much of the Griffin Agency's information is. Griffin was once the primary source of intelligence on advantage gamblers for the casinos, but the detective agency's influence is waning.

After being influenced by the Griffin Book, Caesars wound up with an adverse jury verdict of $50,000, and then settled for an undisclosed amount before the jury could assess additional punitive damages. Legal defense for Caesars probably cost an additional $250,000 or more. Though Russo and Grosjean were not looking for a payday, future plaintiffs will obviously see that the casinos have deep pockets and that any lawsuits should be filed against the casinos involved, not just against Griffin.

Mathematically and legally its becomming clear that the odds are not always stacked in favor of the house.

Announcing CVCX Online
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 20-Jul-2005 07:22:06 (#13554)

CVCX Online is an experiment. The 150,000 two billion round canned CVCX sims have been placed on a server along with the CVCX Viewer and twelve calculators. This will allow you to instantly calculate optimal betting ramps and performance stats for AOII, Red7, KO, Omega II, HiLo, Halves, Uston APC, UstonSS, Expert, Silver Fox, Uston +-, HiLo-Lite, Zen, Hi-OptI and Hi Opt II for different rules, spreads, decks, risks, hands, penetrations by the card, etc. Also, the following 'what-if' questions can be answered:

<ul>

<li>What is my Risk given no goal and no time constraint </li><li>What is my Risk given no goal but a time constraint </li><li>What is my Risk given a goal and time constraint </li><li>What is my Risk given a goal and no time constraint </li><li>What is the Probability of reaching a goal before going bankrupt given a time constraint</li><li>What is the Probability of reaching a goal before going bankrupt with no time constraint</li><li>What is my Range of Probable Results</li><li>What results can I expect given time and probability of reaching goal without ruin</li><li>What is the Probability of your actual casino results</li><li>What is the required bankroll given a goal and time constraint</li><li>What is the required bankroll given a goal and no time constraint</li><li>How many Hands are required to reach a goal given desired probability</li>

</ul>

There is no need to download or install anything as this is a web-based application. It is only a small part of CVCX functionality; but I believe provides far more capability than any existing web-based Blackjack app.

For the next several days, this will be free to all. Frankly, because I want to test the impact on my server. After that, a subset of the functionality will be free to all. I will probably make the rest free for CVCX users - but that depends on the impact.

So if you don't have CVCX, here's your chance to answer a lot of questions at no cost. Feel free to bang away at it as hard as you can. Suggestions are always welcome. Enter the site below:

CVCX Online

Good online tool! *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Jul-2005 14:28:33 (#13558)

Just amazing!
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Jul-2005 22:51:09 (#13562)

You have single handedly answered most of the theoretical questions on these boards with this free tool. Great work and many thanks!

--Mayor

actually
Posted by stainless steel rat on 21-Jul-2005 10:30:46 (#13563)

he answered these questions a long time back when he started selling CVCX/CVData.

The Gaming Control Board - Clean it Up or Disband It!
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Jul-2005 15:49:12 (#13559)

The Gaming Control Board - Clean it Up or Disband It!

By L.V. Bear
Las Vegas Tribune | July 20, 2005

This week's Las Vegas Tribune highlights the current situation involving legal advantage gamblers and the excessive and illegal treatment that some have received from the casinos (see 'Beating The Casinos'). The entire community should thank James Grosjean and Michael Russo for their brave actions in pursuing their claims against the Nevada Gaming Control Board, Imperial Palace, Caesars Palace, and the Griffin agency.

Though there have been many lawsuits filed against casinos for wrongful treatment of skilled patrons, most are quietly settled and contain non-disclosure agreements. Mr. Grosjean and Mr. Russo chose to go public with their cases, at possible great sacrifice to themselves. Both are well-bankrolled professional players. They don't need the extra money that will eventually come to them vs. the private settlements they could have received from their assailants. But they stood on principle, and we are all better off for it.

Maintaining the action against Griffin was particularly important. The rapacious folks at Griffin have long preyed upon honest skilled casino patrons by misstating facts and publishing phony information labeling the skilled patrons as cheaters. Thanks to Mr. Grosjean, Mr. Russo and their attorneys Bob Nersesian and Thea Sankiewicz, Griffin will have to pay for its misconduct.

What should be frightening and infuriating to Nevadans is that the outrageous activity by casinos is tolerated by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. If there was to be a vote for least effective public agency, the Gaming Control Board would win easily. It appears to be corrupt from top to bottom, operating as a de facto arm of the casino industry, instead of protecting the public from casino wrongdoing.

The Gaming Control Board is little more than a training ground for future casino employees. The last two chairmen crossed the line and went to work for the casino industry after their "public service" ended. Will present Chairman Dennis Neilander be far behind? The current Board is a see-no-evil, hear-no-evil trio of two undistinguished career bureaucrats and a casino-industry attorney who cater to every whim of the casino bosses, and do little or nothing to protect the public.

Publicized cases of casino cheating underscore the mentality of the Board. The Venetian was caught rigging drawings. The Board fined it a million dollars, which is a petty slap on the wrist for the Venetian. The casino's license should have been suspended for at least thirty days, the casino closed during that time, and the Venetian ordered to pay its employees during the closure. The crooked employees should have been referred to the District Attorney's Office for criminal prosecution. Not only was that not done, the Board didn't even see fit to revoke the privileged licenses of the crooks. To its credit, the Venetian fired all four scoundrels involved in the sordid affair. But at least three subsequently went to work in executive positions at other casinos, one right here in Las Vegas.

In a more recent case, the Golden Nugget attempted to cheat a patron who won $48,600 on a sports bet. The Golden Nugget said it simply would not pay the winner, though it would refund the $2700 bet. The Gaming Control Board ordered the Golden Nugget to pay the victim, but assessed an absurdly small monetary penalty of less than $30,000. Again, no casino employee was prosecuted for trying to cheat a patron, and the fine, actually imposed for failure to notify the Board of a "patron dispute," was so small as to be ridiculous. It is comical to call an outright attempt to cheat a patron a "patron dispute."

It should have been called what it was, an attempt to cheat a patron.

There are many cases of corrupt Gaming Control Board agents threatening winning casino patrons with phony charges and arrests in attempts to extort the patrons to give back to the casino their honest, legal winnings. The Board has never publicly disclosed if these corrupt agents have been fired, prosecuted, or even disciplined.

The Board had to be sued before it agreed to take action to stop casino cheating at blackjack, through a computerized table that uses marked cards. Incredibly, the Board has permitted the continued use of the marked cards, but has made it less easy, though not impossible, for casinos to use the device to cheat patrons. The Board refuses to publicly disclose a copy of the anti-cheating orders it claims to have issued. Without the embarrassment of being sued for refusing to do its job, the Board would likely have continued to do nothing while the cheating went on unabated.

Unfortunately, the Board has the ability to operate largely in secret. A few ill-conceived statutes allow it more secrecy than a regular police department. Most of its files are not considered public records, and are not available for public inspection. Most of its business is conducted via secret deals with casino bosses. Of course, the secret sweetheart-deal making works to the advantage of the Board, its employees and the casino bosses, and to the detriment of the public.

The present Gaming Control Board is an out-of-control, corrupt government agency operating in virtual secrecy. Legislation is needed to force it to open its files and records to the sunshine of public scrutiny. If after public examination of its practices, it is determined to unsalvageable, it should be disbanded, its employees fired from the public payroll, and a new agency created.

Nevada does not need another cheating scandal or another abuse-of-patrons scandal in its casinos. There have been far too many already, with no meaningful action ever taken against the wrongdoers. Nevada is competing with many other gaming and vacation destinations. The other states take casino cheating and other wrongdoing seriously. Nevada needs to start doing the same, before it is too late. Once we get a national or worldwide reputation for not having legitimate, effective government oversight of casinos, many of the tourists -- the lifeblood of our economy -- will stop taking the risk of visiting Nevada.

----------
L.V. Bear is a professional casino patron who plays only the games in which he can legally gain an advantage over the casino. He is a frequent contributor to www.bj21.com, the popular website that features blackjack and other beatable casino games. The opinions and viewpoints expressed herein are his own. He can be reached at LVBear584@cox.net

Great letter!
Posted by The Mayor on 21-Jul-2005 11:48:33 (#13564)

Thanks, Bear. This letter, together with the letter by Bob Nersesian below, are the latest attempts to get the goons back on track. People who are just casual readers here may not realize this stuff is really going on right now. Things are getting worse, not better, as Vegas expands. Our civil rights are being routinely violated by casino goons and the governing body is turning the other way. Thank you for your work to bring these issues forward.

--Mayor

Book Review – Wong on Dice *PIC*
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Jul-2005 15:20:59 (#13566)

Book Review – Wong on Dice

By 'Barfarkel'
Las Vegas Tribune | July 21, 2005
------------------
Editor's Note: 'Barfarkel' is the pseudonym of a semi-pro card counter and the Author of 'You've Got Heat, The Continuing Card Counting Adventures of L.V. Pro." Barfarkel will be an a occasional gaming contributor to Las Vegas Tribune
------------------------

Most experienced gamblers know there's nothing as exciting as a hot craps table. Of all the table games, craps is the one in which you can win or lose a ton of cash very fast, while every player is rooting for the same result. Despite its apparent complexity, the game is easily understandable and as such, it's one of the most popular table games in the casino.

But there's a problem with craps. It's a negative expectation endeavor. The casino will exact its tax upon every craps bet you make. The overall house edge of 1.4% seems small, but it continually erodes your chip stacks with every bet you place. To that species of advantage player, such as card-counters who refuse to make a bet unless they have the best of it mathematically, this type of game is anathema. There's no way to structure your bets, or change your playing strategy to be able to get an overall edge at craps. "To hell with fun," the advantage player is saying. "We're here to make money."

So the conventional wisdom up until now has been that you can play a casino table game for fun and eventually and inevitably lose your money. Or you can play another game, such as blackjack, in which by counting cards, you can get the long-term mathematical advantage, and by doing so you can win money over the long haul. But counting cards is work. It takes a lot of practice and discipline – not exactly a recipe for a fun-seeking gambler.

But what if we wanted to do both? Have fun and make money? At craps? Is that even possible? Can one have a mathematically advantageous craps game? Make money long-term at the most exciting table game there is? Have your cake and eat it too?

In his new book Wong on Dice, Stanford Wong assures us that this is possible.

Wong has previously written Professional Blackjack - the definitive book on Hi-Lo – the count system considered the industry standard. He has written the authoritative Casino Tournament Strategy – the book every tournament player considers his Bible. In the research for Sharp Sports Betting, he turned himself from a novice punter into a savvy sports bettor. Stanford Wong's credentials are impeccable. He remains today one of the true gurus of the advantage player scene. So when Wong believes that you can get an edge at craps, many smart players, me included, tend to listen. As far as credibility, Stanford Wong is the E.F. Hutton of the advantage player community.

Gambling at a casino game that he cannot possibly beat would be abhorrent to Wong. He would not have dedicated the last eighteen months of his life to this endeavor unless he was certain he could find a way to beat the game.

Not that it's easy. Nothing worthwhile ever is. Just like card counting, there's a lot of practice and study involved. Wong taught himself the physical skill of throwing dice in such a way as to minimize the bad results, and maximize the good ones. Controlling dice requires skill, practice, camouflage, patience and deception. In this new book, Wong teaches you what he's learned over the past year-and-a-half of research. Wong on Dice, now in book form, is the completion of the previously published E-book report by the same name that originally sold for $199.

In these thirteen chapters, Wong explains how to get the edge at the craps table. He explains how to toss the dice so as to legally influence them, how to bet, how to act in the casino, practice tips, and money management. The section on tossing the dice is the meat of the book, describing everything from the grip, to the alignment, to the way the dice should act in flight. Included in Wong on Dice is never-before-published information about the game of craps: how skillful shooters get an edge, how to practice efficiently, how to test yourself to know when you're ready to take on a casino, the four-item checklist Wong uses on every toss of the dice, a logical way to choose which dice set to use, which bets to make, expected win rates, and the mathematics of craps.

Of course this is not the first book to claim that a dedicated player can get an advantage at craps. In Wong on Dice, he references concepts and material from other books written by "Yuri," Frank Scoblete and "Sharpshooter." He has absorbed, synthesized and reorganized some of the most important material and presents it in a simple and highly understandable manner.

You can't learn this stuff solely from books. In his trademark clean and compact writing style Stanford Wong states:

I recommend personal instruction from a pro. If you want to learn to hit a tennis or golf ball properly, the best plan of action is to get coaching from an expert; and the same is true if you want to learn how to throw dice to produce results that differ from random.

In Chapter Six, Wong instructs the reader how to estimate his "Seven-to-Rolls-Ratio" (SRR). An unskilled random dice shooter will throw an average of one seven in every six rolls. This random SRR is expressed as 1:6.0. Wong estimates that the minimum SRR a skilled shooter needs to get an edge is 1:6.4. If the shooter can keep the dice spinning on one axis of rotation (backspin), parallel to the felt and choose dice tables which allow the dice to settle down quickly after lightly hitting the back wall, he should be able to achieve an SRR of 1:6.5. This is the point at which the student can start to take his game to the casinos.

In this chapter, he concludes that there are two ways to get an edge tossing dice: correlation, and dice-stopping-on-axis. Correlation is simply having the dice rotate together on the proper left-right axis as they leave your hand. Dice-stopping-on-axis means each die is more likely to stop on one of its rotating faces than on one of its side faces. Throwing the dice on axis (correlation) is necessary to get an edge at craps. Having the dice stop on axis is not necessary to get an edge.

Also in this chapter, Wong describes the difference between primary hits and double pitches. A primary hit is two rotating faces landing, which started out in identical positions in the shooters hand when he first set them before throwing. For example, if you use the Hardways Set, in which you hold the dice with say the threes up and the fours facing you and the rotating faces are 2, 3, 4, and 5, with the ones and sixes on the side faces, in the final result when the dice land, the primary hits are 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 and 5-5. Using the same Hardways dice set, a double pitch is having the dice land on 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, and 5-2.

In Chapter Seven, entitled Money Management, Wong discusses how to estimate your advantage. Under the sub-heading Estimating Your Edge, he states the following:

You need to express your edge on a per-roll basis to find your optimal bet size. If you keep your rotational axes parallel to the felt and select your tables carefully, you enjoy an edge of several percent on your place and odds bets, and all those bets on average require several rolls to be decided. An SRR of 1:6.5 gives you an edge of about 1.2% per roll on place bets on six and eight, slightly more on odds bets, and less on buying four and ten and placing five and nine.

Chapter Eight is my favorite. In it, Wong describes the Dice Challenge of 2004, in which he and several members of his BJ21.com Green Chip website set up a test. Stanford and a partner, Little Joe Greene, would throw the dice 500 times, with observers recording the results. In 500 rolls, a random shooter should throw 83 sevens. Wong set the over/under number at 79.5 sevens, and booked all the "under" action he could get that he and his partner would throw 79 or less sevens in those 500 rolls. He had six bettors wagering on the "over" from $100 to $1000 per point. A thousand-per-point bettor would owe Wong $2,500 if they threw only 77 sevens – two-and-a-half less sevens than the over/under line. For another example, Wong would owe each of those bettors $3,500 if he rolled 83 sevens, which would be three-and-a-half sevens over the limit.

As it turned out, Wong and Little Joe Greene threw only 74 sevens in those 500 dice throws, winning $15,350. Although only 500 rolls are not mathematically significant, Stanford and his partner put their money where their mouth was, and backed up their claim with action. This had the effect of establishing a great deal of credibility for the concept of controlled dice shooting. When you also factor in Stanford Wong's built-in reliability and integrity, this Dice Challenge served to change many minds about the capability to get an edge at the game of craps.

Wong on Dice is definitely a book that serious craps players should read. Even if they are not willing to put in the time and effort to learn the proper techniques of dice control, betting and casino comportment, the material presented in this book is an eye-opener to anyone considering ways to improve their chances of winning consistently at craps.

A man robbed a casino of $2.4 million and then...
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Jul-2005 15:31:06 (#13567)

... (posted at ZenZone) zg

You've been playing blackjack in a particular casino for over 10 years...
Posted by Greasy John on 21-Jul-2005 16:29:05 (#13568)

the rules are very favorable. Pitch. You've won a pretty good amount of money betting quarters with a resonable spread. You've been getting comps. Did I say Vegas. How long will they tolerate this madness? Don't lay much negative EV cover. Deck neutral, bet whatever. Do you keep playing this store, or do you just fade away? If it was just the friendly tap, okay. Flyered? Griffin? Black Book? Do you keep playing? Hmmmmm?

You are pretty well imprinted...
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Jul-2005 17:03:24 (#13569)

... on management. Nonetheless, just give ita a few months rest and try your least known shift(s) with a persona change* zg

*persona change: see ZG Interview
http://cardcounter.com/Interview_Zen_Grifter.htm

Greetings Blackjack Buddies
Posted by BradRod on 21-Jul-2005 20:00:51 (#13571)

I recently played for nearly 30 days straight in Budapest, Hungary. Went down about $6500 on the second day and was not able to recover the rest of the time there.

Since returning I am up over 30 k in about 90 hours of play. What a game !!

Anything exciting happen here while I was away ?

Glad you are back
Posted by The Mayor on 22-Jul-2005 11:59:40 (#13577)

>Anything exciting happen here while I was away ?

Yes, ZG posted a picture of a monkey drinking its piss, and I had to bust his post - first time I busted *any* post here in a very long time 8-)

It sounds like you play large stakes -- I'm guessing a $300-$500 max bet. I'm glad you are able to put down that kind of cash and keep it up, through the bad times and good. That shows a very disciplined and skilled player. I wish you much more success!

--Mayor

Re: Glad your....
Posted by BradRod on 22-Jul-2005 18:31:30 (#13583)

Thanks,

I remember Zg has a tendency to get a little randy at times.

Yes that has been the range of my maximum bets.

In Budpaest the exchange rate is approx. 200 Forints to the dollar. And there were tables where the minimum bet is 200 Forints for a 6 deck, hand shuffle, 90% avg penetration. s17, split up to 3 times, das, aces only once and one card on each. There was practically no upper limit. I thought I could play forever under those rules. ans I did but just could not get antwhere with it. Very frustrating. On the way back I made up about half my losses in 6 hours on a layover.

There may have been some language, cultural, and monetray difficulties in Budapest ( Its a little scary and tough to keep track of things when you are playing in units of 100,000 and millions. Hopefully that is somethiong I will need to get used to.)

I would like to go back there. I think there are some very good games in Eastern Europe.

I think you may have mistaken me for...
Posted by zengrifter on 23-Jul-2005 16:21:29 (#13584)

... the late Rob McGarvey. zg

"I remember Zg has a tendency to get a little randy at times."

Oh yes, my mistake
Posted by BradRod on 23-Jul-2005 21:32:13 (#13585)

I do remember him fondly. A real fighter even though he did not always get it quite right.

I thin I welcomed you back upon your return from your hiatus before taking one of my own. How have you been ?

Good thank you...
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Jul-2005 14:07:37 (#13595)

...be sure to check out the new board 'Zen Zone'. zg

Will do
Posted by BradRod on 25-Jul-2005 21:55:05 (#13601)

You are always the source for interesting links and articles.

Howdy
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 28-Jul-2005 01:06:50 (#13631)

Good to see you posting.

Do you still play in the Midwest markets? You will only find me in one of two places around here anymore, and then, not very often. I have sworn off grinding nickles out of those 8-deckers long ago.

Returned from Vegas/Reno yesterday morning. Just about break even for 20 hours of play.

-Felix

This has been happening a lot lately
Posted by zooner on 22-Jul-2005 10:17:26 (#13572)

Hi everyone,

I'm wondering if there's something I should be looking out for during positive counts that would tell me to run. I was playing yesterday and was holding my own for a while. The next shoe (4 decks 80%pen, 3 other players at table), the count goes positive after about 3/4 of a deck out - and I quickly jump onto 2 squares, betting 70% on each of what I would bet playing heads-up. The counts stays above +2 for most of the rest of the shoe. Guess what happened? I dropped $800 in that one shoe, I think I pushed one max bet-lost the rest. I had a lot of 18's and 19's but the dealer kept pulling 20's and 4 or 5 card 21's. I just kept thinking that I have to trust the math, bet appropriately, don't panic, the dealer cannot keep this up. Well, he did, and I was done for the day. What I'm wondering is if there is another 'rule' I can apply when this sort of thing starts to happen. I'm really trying to play smart and build my bankroll gradually but when this happens, it makes me doubt what I'm doing.

I anticipate the answer to be that this is just normal variance but maybe there's some 'voodoo' I can start using. Thanks all.

Re: This has been happening ..........
Posted by BradRod on 22-Jul-2005 10:49:41 (#13573)

What you are experiencing is a shoe where your count is valid and should be reliable but all the 10's are clustered behind the cut card.

I think that there is no counting system or voodoo that can protect you from this type of situation. I am not skilled at shuffle tracking but if you could somehow see where that cluster of high cards winds up after the next shuffle or two you could re4ally clean up. I have experienced this playing behind a shuffle tracker.

The answer is you are playing for the long run. If you encounter this type of situation and your betting stake starts to dwindle you should play more conservatively until you know you are in the pocket of high cards. I know it does seem to go against the math but it is a matter of self preservation and staying in the game.

also
Posted by stainless steel rat on 22-Jul-2005 10:56:50 (#13574)

It doesn't necessarily mean all the 10's are behind the cut card. With a + count, there is no law that says either you or the dealer gets more of those high cards just because the count is up. I've played many a game where the count was sky-high, yet I got stiffs and the dealer got 20/21's over and over. Even when the count is way +, there is the normal distribution of cards to deal with, you get some, the dealer gets some, and that is what makes variance or flux happen...

What I thought
Posted by zooner on 22-Jul-2005 11:39:33 (#13575)

Thanks, guys. It's just a p*** off, that's all. In retrospect, I am actually proud of the way I played yesterday as I didn't go 'chasing' my losses with big bets in the next shoe when it wasn't called for. And today I don't feel too too bad so I guess I'm learning and will take something away from this. I'll be back at it next week looking for those nice high counts. BTW, the ploppies at the table were doing some weird things, like only hitting to 14 or 15 against dealer's 7,8,9,10. I wonder what would have happened had they played proper basic strategy? The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5, taking an ace on the first 6 (then standing), and a 4 on the second (not doubling, but catching an ace.) Guess what the dealer pulled? A 6-card 21 in a +4 count. I had a good chuckle over that round.

Ploppy plays have no long-term adverse effect
Posted by Easy Money on 24-Jul-2005 10:19:12 (#13586)

BTW, the ploppies at the table were doing some weird things, like only hitting to 14 or 15 against dealer's 7,8,9,10. I wonder what would have happened had they played proper basic strategy? The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5, taking an ace on the first 6 (then standing), and a 4 on the second (not doubling, but catching an ace.) Guess what the dealer pulled? A 6-card 21 in a +4 count.

Just know that in the long run those moves they make whether good, bad or otherwise, will help you just as much as hurt you. The only bad effect they really have on your game, is they eat cards during positive counts and make for less hands per hour on your betting circle.

On shoe games, I personally like having one other player on the table. I use them as card-eaters when I break away from negative counts.

The play was correct
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Jul-2005 11:43:06 (#13588)

>The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5,

This is basic strategy, and completely correct play. If you have some mythology or don't know basic strategy, you are going to be a loser at the tables. It is easiest to blame losing on other people through selective memory, but it is your responsibility not theirs. I wrote a book for you.

Not what I meant
Posted by zooner on 25-Jul-2005 10:21:18 (#13592)

I'm not sure you understood my comment on the bonehead play.

Mayor said: "This is basic strategy, and completely correct play. If you have some mythology or don't know basic strategy, you are going to be a loser at the tables. It is easiest to blame losing on other people through selective memory, but it is your responsibility not theirs. I wrote a book for you."

What I said was: "The bonehead move of the day was the anchor who split 6's against a dealer's 5, taking an ace on the first 6 (then standing), and a 4 on the second (not doubling, but catching an ace.)"

What the player actually did was not correct basic strategy. I know basic strategy and don't hold onto any mythological beliefs when it comes to blackjack. The other thing I know for sure is that anything can and will happen in this game.

I also don't blame others when things go bad. And they don't get credit when things are rocking. I simply pointed it out because I found it interesting, that's all. I do my best to capitalize on mistakes like this by offering to buy the player's split or double-down when appropriate.

But since I came off as such a dummy, maybe I should get the book you wrote for me.

Ahh, sorry.
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Jul-2005 13:45:44 (#13594)

This shows what a lack of concentration can do to the thoughtful response. It was funny because I read your posts from the top, and they all seemed very solid, except that one. I should have figured I was misreading something.

No worries
Posted by zooner on 25-Jul-2005 14:10:11 (#13596)

I can understand how that can happen. So, no problem. And thanks for the compliment. I do appreciate all the feedback. This community is awesome and as a result, my playing is better than ever. BTW, had a session today (good result) but am continually amazed at the plays people make - learn BS is what I want to tell them but I keep my mouth shut so as not to look like I know something about the game. And I may just have to order your book.

get the book...
Posted by Cionnaith on 26-Jul-2005 07:17:30 (#13604)

The Blackjack Zone is a fabulous book. In addition to providing excellent discussion of blackjack, he delves substantially into the psychology of the game, which I have found lacking in most other books. As a psychologist, I certainly appreciate the approach and he does an excellent job incorporating scientifically established psychological phenomena into the play of the game. Finally, he incorporates "life lessons" in his discussions, which is a wonderful addition. This book could actually be marketed in the "self help/psychology" section at the bookstore. The suggestions he makes about life have more validity than most of the books in that section. Hell with "I'm Okay; You're Okay" get the Blackjack Zone :) Thanks Mayor.

It happens to all of us
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 22-Jul-2005 11:51:45 (#13576)

This is the reason why a guy playing a $10 game with a $10000 bankroll has around a 13% chance of losing it all. Variance. It is by far the most difficult thing to overcome in counting.

You're playing a 4D game, which is usually dealt in small markets and is susceptible to advanced techniques like ace sequencing and shuffle tracking. You may want to consider adding a little bit of tracking to your game to help isolate where those aces and 10's are.

The simplest form of tracking is a slug track. When you get the cut card, you will know one place in the shoe to put it when the count at the end of the last shoe was positive, and another place to put it when it was negative. That's it. Nothing else. It gives you only a small fraction of the power of all-out shuffle tracking but it's a good start.

Where Can I Get Info
Posted by zooner on 22-Jul-2005 13:59:22 (#13578)

I could probably add one or both techniques to my game. Any suggestions on available sources of info on these?

A couple of ways
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 22-Jul-2005 15:00:48 (#13579)

If you want to do a shuffle track, here's the most straightforward way. For a 4D game, go out and get yourself 3 decks of cards with one color back and a fourth with another color back. Pretend the odd colored deck is the slug. The next thing you have to do is recreate the house shuffle exactly. Try to compensate for any dealer-to-dealer variation, and you might also want to take note of ways in which the dealer tends to blow the shuffle. When you've recreated the shuffle, look where the odd colored cards are concentrated. Do some figuring and figure out where you would have to cut the shoe to put the maximum number of slug cards behind the cut card on the next shoe, and then the minimum number. Those are the only two points you have to remember. You can also let the odd colored deck represent the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd decks and see where they end up. This is a slightly tougher type of segment tracking because you have to remember what the count was at the beginning and end of some other deck to make it work, but it works the exact same way and some deck other than the slug might have a more predictable distribution for the next shoe, especially if the house uses a plug to return the slug to the discards. For complete shuffle tracking you'll need the counts of each deck and an equation that correlates the count of each deck in one shoe to each deck in the next. I'd recommend the Qfit CVShuffle software if you want to do anything more than the simplest shuffle tracking.

Thank you
Posted by zooner on 22-Jul-2005 15:09:59 (#13580)

Awesome idea. Thank you. I'll start watching the shuffles very carefully next week so I can recreate at home. Thanks for the idea.

Shuffle Tracking WEB RESOURCES *LINK*
Posted by zengrifter on 22-Jul-2005 15:19:15 (#13581)

Shuffle Tracking WEB RESOURCES -

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/playing/tracking.htm

-also the link below-

Not a large enough sample
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Jul-2005 11:45:26 (#13589)

One show or one day is not a large enough sample. Keep playing correctly, that's the only thing you can do. Don't worry about winning or losing. Just play correctly. If you know your play is strong, winning will take care of itself.

what is the 1unit bet ?
Posted by pelasgos on 24-Jul-2005 10:25:09 (#13587)

from the book BJ attack (2nd adition)page 205 table 10.19 for 4/6 das ls game
Don.S. his geving infos about win rate's,sd's and optm bank, but when hi means
400 or 800 units hi means 400 of minimum bets or max?

got to be min
Posted by stainless steel rat on 24-Jul-2005 15:02:33 (#13590)

Historically a "unit" is your minimum bet...

The rarest blackjack play?
Posted by Greasy John on 24-Jul-2005 20:11:21 (#13591)

I've had it happen to me only five times over my playing career. It's when the the dealer exposes his/her hole card. Pg 306 of WGBJB has a chart by which to play exposed hole cards. I've seen it said that you should not split 5s, you should double (when the dealer has a two card 16 for instance). But, it seems to me that IF you were allowed to DAS you would want to split the 5s. Even against a dealer two-card 14 where the dealer has a 56% chance of busting I would think you'd split when playing a DAS game (not taking counting into account). Or does doubling with 5,5 give you a final total that outweighs the final possible multi-hand combinations that splitting 5,5 would produce? Does anyone know for sure?

Not rare
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Jul-2005 13:40:11 (#13593)

>It's when the the dealer exposes his/her hole card.

If this is rare for you, then you must not be looking very hard.

Double 5,5 against dealer stiff totals. Do NOT split.

How about against a two card 16?
Posted by Greasy John on 25-Jul-2005 15:09:10 (#13597)

If the dealer has this two card hand then he/she would have a 61.5 % chance of busting. If the player has the DAS option the player might end up with as many as 8 bets. Even if some of these player final totals are stiffs the player is a favorite to win.

NO! *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Jul-2005 17:26:10 (#13598)

Fake ID
Posted by BradRod on 25-Jul-2005 21:52:18 (#13599)

I have been turning down player cards and comps at many places I have been playing because I do want to have my name be known in case of getting backed off or 1/2 shoed. (That is the worst thing that has happened to me so far in about 3800 hours as an AP ).

The problem of course is that I am giving up on a ton a comps and it also raises suspicion when I am playing for long hours in a place and refuse to get a player card. So I thought I would get an ID for use while playing. I have found a site called - FakeIDGroup.com. Has anybody had any experience with them. Anyone else play under an alias ?

ID's
Posted by BlackJackHack on 26-Jul-2005 03:06:51 (#13603)

Frankly, I'm amazed that you've played for 3800 hours without getting players' cards with fake names on them. It took me a hell of a lot less than 3800 hours to realize their value.

Getting a player's card is the single best cover play you can ever make and it doesn't cost you any EV. In fact, it brings you positive EV (i.e., comps) of around 1 unit per hour (if your average bet is 2.5 units, you play 100 hands per hour, the casino assumes you are an average player who plays at a 2% disadvantage to the house, and the casino comps you at 20% of its expected win, you should get about 1 unit per hour in comps). While, in my view, cover is the more important reason to use a card, an additional unit of +EV per hour is nothing to sneeze at when your expected EV is probably somewhere between 2 and 3 units per hour.

Using a player's card with your real name on it is a dumb idea, for reasons you have discussed.

While I don't think it makes much sense to go into detail on a public board about the process of getting player cards with phony names on them, I will venture to say that if you are not resourceful or clever enough to figure out how to do this, you should not be pursuing advantage play for anything more than nominal stakes.

Until Govt. 'REAL ID' becomes universal...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Jul-2005 14:16:11 (#13613)

... any source of novelty ID is acceptable for obtaining Pcards, but its cheapest to do your own - obtain software, scan real ID, change details, change text & color so not to be counterfit, insert photo, laminate, go. zg

Question for Zen about the fake id website
Posted by MJ on 26-Jul-2005 16:13:20 (#13617)

Is FakeIdgroup.com a legitimate website? What do you think? I am looking to get a fake id myself just for the sake of privacy when I play at the tables. I need a comp card too but do not want to show my real id.

The ID has to look somewhat real no?

By the way I liked your idea of not splitting aces to obtain a "super sequence" for the next shoe. How is it working for you? Thanks.

-MJ

fakeidgroup.com looks legit...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Jul-2005 18:11:02 (#13619)

... BUT WAY OVER-PRICED when you see how easy it is to make the laminated variety at home.

My Ace-prediction methods work great for 2D games, including the not splitting Aces with small bets out against 2-6. I don't think that I could do A-prediction in 6D games. zg

Question for ZG
Posted by Alexost on 26-Jul-2005 21:48:39 (#13620)

Do you straight count and supplement with ace prediction? I'm working on adding ace sequencing to supplement my count game when a sequence-able situation arises. I'm planning on trying this in Reno and downtown vegas, single and double deck. I've read the Cookbook, Shuffle tracking treatise on bjmath, and quite a few posts on the subject. Do you know of anything else out there that has accurate sequencing information? Thanks!

Ace prediction is simple...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Jul-2005 22:58:52 (#13621)

... just note the key card preceeding the Ace(s) and move to 2 max bets right after the key card emerges. zg

More questions-
Posted by Alexost on 27-Jul-2005 01:07:28 (#13623)

Do you vary your strategy depending on the type of shuffle? Aren't some shuffles not worth sequencing?
I know it can be as simple as you're describing but don't we need to keep more factors in mind?

Thanks for you time ZG.

Answer -
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Jul-2005 14:23:36 (#13626)

Q: I know [Ace prediction] can be as simple as you're describing but don't we need to keep more factors in mind?
-------
A: NO, not in 1-2D games. A-prediction is NOT shuffle-tracking.
See this discussion thread - http://www.cardcounter.com/main.pl?read=13343

Still missing something here
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 27-Jul-2005 16:03:42 (#13627)

Saying that the ace will come out after the key card is like saying that a bus will come after the previous bus- sure... but when? Wouldn't it be more efficient to predict the exact location of the ace (4 cards after the key card for two riffles, 8 cards after the key card for three riffles, etc.) and put down a much larger bet on the hand, using multiple hands to steer the ace toward you or away from the dealer as necessary?

Yes, if only...
Posted by zengrifter on 27-Jul-2005 17:58:04 (#13630)

... the riffles were perfect. zg

Helping to decide
Posted by Anon on 31-Jul-2005 08:26:38 (#13661)

see http://www.underground-review.com/F_ID.html

Speaking of ID - about Budapest
Posted by BradRod on 25-Jul-2005 21:53:21 (#13600)

In Budapest, by the way, there are three major casinos with blackjack tables. Many others throughout the city are all electronic. In order to play there you must show a passport before they even let you in the door. But for them "heat" is just what you crank up on those long cold winter nights. I found quite an active community of AP's both local and visitors such as myself. In one place on any given night there could be 2 or 3 AP's active on every table. The rest of the players are tourists with some reasonable idea of the game and then some very patheitc local ploppies.

One aspect of playing there that took some getting used to is the pervasive practice they have of back betting. The felt is marked so that you could have to 2 or 3 players betting on your hand. They do not need to get your acknowledgement or permission to do this. The thinking is along the lines of not messing the flow of the cards. They come to the table in mid shoe or play on multiple tables at one time and instead of opening up a new hand they bet on yours.

One problem with that for me is that smoking is a national religion in Hungary and inevitably I had 2 or 3 heavy smokers surrounding on all sides from behind. Also, particularly the table jumpers would be very nervous types. Clicking chips and muttering non- stop. Very distacting (especially in Hungarian) . Then there would be those that throw down chips to split or double down when that was not my intention as the "owner" of the spot. The dealers there are like automotons. As soon as they see the chips go down - the card is out or the split is done which lead to some argumentative situation. And of course when someone doesnt like the way you played the hand they are not silent about it. If the hand is a winner - particulalry if there were splits or double downs involved. There is a mass of multiple stacks of chips and a rush to grab chips to move on to another table.

In the US most places that I have played allow you to play only up to 2 or 3 hands which must be conntiguous and directly in front of you. There is no limitation in Budapest of the number of spots that you can play nor on the proximity of the spots. I've had players play 1st and 3rd base with the dealer or other player assisting in the movement of chips. One memmorable time was when a local ploppy player at 1st base didnt like the plays that I was making as "3rd baseman" in the next to the last spot. I was of course making him lose. So he opened the last spot next to me. It did not effect my game very much but he soon lost his money at twice the rate he was before and soon gave it up.

The local players recognize and to a degree respect skilled and expert players but being very proud they think that is simply another way to play as valid as theirs as long as it doesnt mess them up and that winning comes down to a matter of style.

After assuring myself that I would not be creating an international incident I found ways of asserting myself in those situations. I was still often hindered by the language barrier.

anybody ever of the 7 side bet
Posted by eyesfor21 on 26-Jul-2005 08:58:47 (#13605)

Just got back from a trip and played a place with
losy rules(Iam mean really bad) but good pen, and a lovely side
bet. Had some fun on this 6 deck game.
u get 1 seven pays 3 to 1
u get 2 seven pays 10 to 1
u get 3 seven pays 300 to 1 unless all same suit then it pays 3000 to
one
My count system had to be in place to take advantage of this
7 side bet..it worket and payed off quite grand.

How does it work ? *NM*
Posted by BradRod on 26-Jul-2005 09:01:27 (#13606)

work the side bet
Posted by eyesfor21 on 26-Jul-2005 09:21:26 (#13607)

You can bet at any time and can also bet in the side
bet at any time= the goal is to get 7's,the payoff
already mentioned.

I got that
Posted by BradRod on 26-Jul-2005 09:31:06 (#13608)

I meant how does your counting system let you anticipate 7's ?

It could be very simple
Posted by blueeyedsamurai on 26-Jul-2005 13:01:45 (#13610)

You could be playing Hi-LO and keep a side count of 7's. When there is a dis-proportionate amount of 7's remaining you make the bet.

Does this side bet on the 7's, make soft doubles more appealling ?? I imagine it does.

the lucky 7 bet beats lucky ladies bet
Posted by eyesfor21 on 26-Jul-2005 13:49:30 (#13612)

how to do it is not the problem..you got to find the
casino offering it.

That pay table seems a little light though
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 26-Jul-2005 14:30:42 (#13615)

The copyrighted version (detailed in The Mayor's book) is very beatable but has higher pays. The problem with it is that it's a $1 sidebet only, and unless you keep a sidebet of 7's for some other reason it's probably not worth it to keep one just for Super Sevens.

They offer it at Foxwoods and I'll play it occasionally for cover. The sidebet pays if you bust your hand or if the dealer has BJ, and if you have two 7's and the dealer has BJ they'll call the floor over and deal you a third card at no risk to the player. I don't know if it pays if you surrender, and I know it definitely doesn't pay if you split. I'm just waiting for the time when I have a huge count, a big bet down with the sidebet and I get a pair of suited 7's against a dealer 6. I'll probably hit it.

7's
Posted by eyesfor21 on 26-Jul-2005 14:49:16 (#13616)

I was betting it on everyones hand,at the appropriate
time perhaps that
increased the chance of getting it. Did Foxwoods also
pay 3 to 1 for just one seven?

Yes, hit two sevens if it calls for with a 6, with a large
bet but heavy with seven left not to sure,thats a good
question .

Highly recommend a trip to Budapest
Posted by Fat Tony on 28-Jul-2005 20:02:26 (#13641)

I currently live in Budapest, and support myself as a professional gambler. Although I started with blackjack, most of my income now comes from online poker. Budapest is a fun city, with a great nightlife, and the most beautiful women I've ever seen. Living in Budapest is like living in a beer commercial, only the girls look better with no plasic surgery. The city itself is beautiful, and very safe.

The blackjack in Budapest is so-so these days(although casinos are starting to offer poker). One casino is ES10, but penetration isn't so good (4/6). Another, no surrender casino, often has peentration as good as 5.5 /6. To play for any decent amount of money (5 euro minimum or higher), you'll probably have to go to the "high-roller pit" and be the only person there, making wonging difficult (you can wong out only so many times before they get annoyed).

About those women..
Posted by BradRod on 28-Jul-2005 22:23:33 (#13647)

Before visitng Budapest I had almost forgotten that it is possible for women to have a little something at the ends of their naturally shapely breasts. It seems like all you see around here anymore are these cups that women wear that don't seem to have the least asssociation with anything anatomical.

As far as the game goes I think you would do well to play in Forints that way you dont have to wong in and out. You can stay in the shoe during the worst of counts at table minimum . There are tables with minimums as low as 200 Forints ( = $1 ). You can play a long time into low counts and nobody will say a thin if you suddenly upped your bet to as many as $5000 Forints ($25 ). There are 1000 Forint tables ( $5 ) with even higher maximums. With the kind of spreads you can achieve why worry about wonging ?

By the way for some reason I seem unable to send any e-mail for now. I was only in Busapest temporarily. Am back in the States now but, I do hope to retutn in the near future. Those women.... mmmmm

Posted by on 31-Dec-1969 18:00:00 (#13609)

ID's
Posted by blueeyedsamurai on 26-Jul-2005 13:07:22 (#13611)

BradRod, quite simply, have you ever thoguht of getting a friend to sign up for a card on your behalf ??

The only casino I know of that puts your picture on a players card is the Palms in LV, otherwise, how would anybody know you are not that person ??

Blackjackhack- None of the players clubs I belong to comp me the equivilant of 1 bet/unit per hour. What clubs do comp at this level ?

You can and should refuse to let Palms use your photo
Posted by LV Bear584 on 26-Jul-2005 14:18:34 (#13614)

The Palms is using the repugnant system of scanning your ID into its database when you sign up for a player's card. If you tell the clerk IN ADVANCE not to do it, they won't do it. Otherwise, it's done with no warning to you.

Wynn Las Vegas is also taking this irresponsible and reprehensible road. JUST SAY NO.

Too late for me
Posted by Soft 21 on 27-Jul-2005 03:11:49 (#13624)

I've already signed up for several of these clubs under my real name, and I think they've scanned my photo. I'm still liked. Should I stop playing under my real name and go through the hassle and potential legal troubles of fake ID's? Feel free to email me with non-public details. Thanks!

Comp Formulas
Posted by BlackJackHack on 26-Jul-2005 17:18:12 (#13618)

I derive the 1 unit per hour formula from the premise that Vegas casinos (and casinos in other locales that comp similarly) typically comp about 20% of their expected win. I can't cite an authority for this 20% figure off the top of my head, but I recall reading this in posts on several boards from persons more knowledgeable about comps than me (for what it's worth, Henry Tamburin says the range is 20%-40% - http://www.casino.com/blackjack/article.asp?id=356).

Of course, they start with the premise that they have a 2% edge against you, which would be true for the average ploppy. If you really have a 1% edge against the house, you'll need to rathole around 7 units per hour, on average, for them to continue to assume you are a typical ploppy over the long haul.

In my green chip days, I usually had little trouble getting comps worth the equivalent of $100 for 4 hours of play (a $79 room, a dinner at a moderate or high-end restaurant, and a buffet lunch will put you well over $100 in value), which would equate to one $25 unit per hour. I generally don't like to put in more than the requisite 4 hours per day at any one casino for the usual reasons.

Results, of course, will vary enormously from casino to casino, and even from PC to PC within the same casino - in some stores you have to fight for a buffet comp after one hour with an average bet of $60 or so. In other stores, I have gotten $75 dinner comps at high end restaurants (think monstrous $45 steak at 9ine at the Palms - can't tell you whether that would still be doable there) for an hour of such play. Note that they are also more likely to throw these comps at you when you're losing -- losing sessions are good times to be a comp monger.

I now play at the black level, and thus far I have gotten pretty much whatever I ask for. I'm not a real comp whore, however, so I haven't really pushed the envelope to see if I could get $400 in comp value for 4 hours of play (with one notable exception -- a plush Caribbean casino has given me a free room worth over $300 and $150 in meals per day - a free Caribbean vacation beats the hell out of anything in LV). Anywhere in the US, getting a $129 room and whatever I want to eat is a given. At some point, I'll have to try to grab a pair of $95 show tickets or a $150 massage and see what happens. When I'm by myself, which is usually the case, I don't want to waste valuable playing time with Celine Dion or Cirque De Soleil, or even with a 7-course meal that takes 90 minutes. I'll need to bring the wife (who, unfortunately, DOES enjoy expensive stuff) in order to really push the envelope.

Regionally, my experience is that comps are easiest in Mississippi (comp heaven for green chippers). LV is next, and AC a bit harder (but improving significantly since the Borgata opened and created actual competition). Generally speaking, you have to play big and lobby hard for your comps in the Caribbean, but it's worth the effort if you can make it happen.

Even Rarer!
Posted by Greasy John on 27-Jul-2005 17:10:13 (#13628)

You have 5,5 vs dealer 10. TC is now -6 (let's say). You hit and draw another 5, hit again and draw an ace. Hit again and draw the last 5 in the deck. final hand, 5,5,5,5,A.

Greasy John

How about this one....</

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