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Threads 1561 to 1590

If You Do Use Casey.....
Posted by James Totten on 14-Jan-2005 14:22:17 (#11774)

Can they detect it electronically, as in walking past you with some sort of moniter?

Probably
Posted by hinoon on 14-Jan-2005 19:22:37 (#11777)

But more likely, they'll notice the guy with the smoking socks.

It's really not worth it, particularly since learning to count isn't all that hard. Certainly not as hard as learning to coordinate your toe taps into some kind of code fast enough to keep up with the game and not look like you have had one too many drinks.

My favorite Casey story *LINK*
Posted by Sonny on 14-Jan-2005 20:00:58 (#11778)

> But more likely, they'll notice the guy with the smoking socks.

I always liked Uston's story about the youg girl (was is Keith Taft's daughter maybe?) who was wearing a Casey ("George" back in those days) and had smoke coming out of her skirt. Hilarious!

I'm sure the newer versions are more sophisticated than that, but why bother? Advantage Play is just as lucrative, often easier, and completely legal. In fact, you might even win a lawsuit or two againt the casinos!

-Sonny-

highest SCORE?
Posted by mark on 14-Jan-2005 18:41:52 (#11776)

what system has the highest SCORE for 6 and 8 deck shoes, DOS, and S17.
thanks!

Suggestion...
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Jan-2005 11:38:42 (#11782)

I suggest you pick up a copy of Donald Schlesinger's book "Blackjack Attack, 3rd edition" -- available through the bookstore on this site (see the left panel). He has pages and pages of data that answer this question in detail.

The top systems are AOII, UBZ, HI-OPTII and Halves. You can really just pick one. I use Halves.

--Mayor

I will check it out. thanks! *NM*
Posted by mark on 15-Jan-2005 12:39:00 (#11783)

Question for BJRM Users
Posted by MJ on 14-Jan-2005 21:01:07 (#11779)

For those of you that have BJRM, I was wondering what the index numbers are for splitting 10s vs 5 and 6(for 1, 2, 6, 8 decks)with the KO system. I think it should be in Systems 101. Thanks to anybody who can help me out!!

-MJ

For 1-2D split XX va 5-6 @ +4 *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 16-Jan-2005 18:21:25 (#11786)

Value of "BJ Insider Newsletter"???.....
Posted by phantom007 on 16-Jan-2005 22:18:04 (#11788)

A year or so ago, while stumbling through the internet as regarding BJ info., I came across a new publication called "BJ Insider Newsletter", published by some guy named Henry T. Since this was free, I subscribed.

Received and enjoyed several issues. However, after a few months, this site switched to PPV, i.e., Pay-per-view.

Now, I get only "teasers", i.e., pay the fee and read what some Pr#ck named "Eliot Jacobsen" says about BJ Variance, for example.

My Question to the Board: Is this info. worth $19.95/year?

Thank you in advance for your responses.

phantom007.

BJ Newsletter
Posted by Sun Runner on 17-Jan-2005 11:04:16 (#11790)

I don't know Henry T. but his reputation is good I think.
He was/is involved with Golden Touch Blackjack and Scoblete, which I find curious, but to each his own.

As to your question directly, almost anything is worth $20 a year and it probably has a money back guarantee. However, if you don't have $1.65 a month to see for yourself .. you probably can't afford it.

is it worth it?
Posted by KennilworthKid on 17-Jan-2005 11:51:26 (#11791)

I subscribe and I think it is worth it. For only $20 a year you get some conditions reports of Las Vegas and Atlantic City, Barfarkels journal, and an occasional statistical analysis. Most of the material is available elsewhere, but I like having another source of information to confirm/contrast against other sources. At $20 it is worthwhile to me.

Definitely worth it
Posted by Barfarkel on 18-Jan-2005 02:44:23 (#11800)

Those of you who haven't yet subscribed to the Blackjack Insider Newsletter, might now want to go ahead and do so, just to read Henry Tamburin's current article Inside the Blackjack Ball, which is in the subscriber-only half of the newsletter.

Max Rubin has allowed Henry to post the 31 questions used in this years'preliminary round test. The four highest scores advanced to the Final Table. Answers will be published in next month's issue. Here's the intro and a few of the questions:

For the written test, Max flashed 31 questions on a screen and we had 20 seconds or so to write down our answers to each question. The test sheets were collected and redistributed among the attendees for grading. Max was kind enough to allow me to publish this year�s questions, which you�ll find later in this report (I�ll publish the answers in the February issue of BJI). Give the test a try and see how you score against the world�s best players (remember 20 seconds per question and you can�t use a calculator).

9. Fill in the Blank. You�re standing outside a 6/5 single deck blackjack game at Bally�s. After one round with only one player on the game, the count goes to +4 and no tens or face cards have shown up yet. They allow mid-deck entry so you sit down, bet $700 money plays and get a snapper. The other player has a pair of fives and the dealer has an ace up. If you play the hand right and the dealer has a nine in the hole, how much money, net, will you have won at the end of the hand?

15. Fill in the Blank. Say you�re playing Mindplay, which I know you wouldn�t, and that the game is point 2% off the top. You play for six hours; you average 75 hands an hour with an average bet of exactly $200. You play perfect basic strategy. The comp ratio is 30% of the casino�s EV. Within one dollar, how much did you earn in comps?

Great issue this month. Many other excellent articles as well, such as the From the Inside article by "The Suit," a pit boss. I also have Part 2 of my November Las Vegas trip in there. Eliot has a good article as well. Henry has another article entitled Inside the World Series of Blackjack. Good tournament article by Ken Smith as well. IMHO the Blackjack Insider Newsletter is the closest thing now comparable to Snyder's old BJ Forum.

Cheers,

Barfarkel

Best place for card counting in Atlantic City
Posted by airasia on 17-Jan-2005 02:17:15 (#11789)

I'm a beginning card counter that has just acquired the skills but has not actually played in any casinos yet. I live closest to Atlantic City, but I've heard that the rules aren't that great there. So where in Atlantic City should I play if I really want to play seriously and win, or even make a living? Or if not AC, where should I try to play without getting caught? What are the best places for card counters in AC and in general? I'd appreciate any feedback.

My Recommendation
Posted by Radar on 17-Jan-2005 12:46:44 (#11792)

" I live closest to Atlantic City, but I've heard that the rules aren't that great there. So where in Atlantic City should I play"

Forget it!

On the east coast, Mississippi has the better games. Yes, it costs $$ to travel there, but with no casino experience and 8 deck games, your ev will be miniscule in AC. The added ev you'll pick up at the better games will offset any expense money you pay. You can get RT tix to Vegas/MS for approx $250 or less anywhere on the east coast. Why would you NOT want to play the better games with better expectations?

And, hey, don't forget the frequent flyer miles and comps! Mississippi has the most liberal comp policies anywhere...that, too, adds to the bottom line.

My two-cents and I have been wrong before. (only once that I can remember though)(TFIC)

Good luck and keep us posted as to your progress.

Radar

comps
Posted by stainless steel rat on 17-Jan-2005 13:51:36 (#11794)

Things have tightened up quite a bit, at least at places like the Beau. I don't follow the "who owns which casino" trades, but something changed at the Beau in the last year or so...

Mississippi and Vegas
Posted by airasia on 17-Jan-2005 14:44:39 (#11795)

What makes Mississippi and Vegas rules and conditions so much better than AC? Isn't it still 6 decks in most places? The Borgata in AC is all 6 decks if I'm not mistaken. And how do you avoid being caught in places where the conditions are so good? I know that in AC they can't bar you for counting, but other places they can, right?

Here's why
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 17-Jan-2005 17:40:52 (#11796)

Reason #1- high table minimums. If you're a beginning counter you don't want to practice on a $25 table, and that's what most of the 6D tables are in AC.

Reason #2- Crowds. Bad counts you can make disappear right away by Wonging out (you need to know all about Wonging to play AC profitably) But good counts disappear fast when the table is crowded. Also when you Wong out you will find it difficult to get back into a table.

Reason #3- No surrender. Late Surrender is worth only 0.08% to a Basic Strategy player by it increases the win rate for a counter who uses 6-10 Surrender indices by up to 40%, after you re-Kellyize your spread. So you don't want to play a shoe game without Surrender without a really good reason. If it's a local game, yeah, that's a good reason.

So if you must, try the 6D games at the AC Hilton. The penetration isn't terrible, nor the crowds, and you can usually find a $10 table.

AC low limit 6D
Posted by jp on 18-Jan-2005 08:49:31 (#11801)

AC Hilton has about 5 tables on the main floor with 6D. During the weekend/peak times, the minimums start at $25. At other times, a few of the tables will have $10 minimums. At certain times, they will offer $5 minimums as well - generally during the week at times when they are not busy, such as the graveyard shift.

Borgata has a pit of about 10 tables that offer 6D games with minimums that range from $5 to $15. Most of the time they start at $10 or $15. On weekdays and non peak hours, they offer some $5 tables. These games use automatic shufflers. They also allow for players to be "grandfathered," which means that if they were playing on the table and the minimum is increased, they are permitted to continue playing at the lower minimum. I am not aware of any other casinos allowing for this in AC anymore.

Resorts has $25 minimum 6D games during the week in their high limit pit.

Showboat has $25 minimum 6D games during off peak periods in their high limit pit.

**************************************
*** Other low limit games - NOT 6D ***
**************************************
AC Hilton has a number of 8D $10 and $15 minimum games. They also offer $5 minimum 8D games at certain times.

I generally avoid Tropicana, but IIRC, they have 8D $10 and $15 minimum games.

Trump Plaza has a low limit pit of 8D games. The minimums generally start at $10 or $15. During weekends and peak hours they increase many of the games to $20 minimums. They offer some $5 minimum games at off peak hours.

I haven't played in Caesars much recently, but I remember them being mainly an 8D $15 minumum store.

The Claridge has 8D $10 and $15 minimum games. They also offer some $5 minimum games at off peak hours.

I haven't played in Sands much either, but last time I was there, they had 8D $15 minimum tables.

Resorts has a number of 8D $10 and $15 minumum games. They offered 6D $10 and $15 games for one week, but then changed them back to 8D games. I believe it was during some promotional weekend.

Taj Mahal has 8D $10 and $15 minumum games. You can get $5 minimum games during off peak hours (generally during the week days).

Showboat has 8D $10 and $15 minimum games.

Borgata is primarily a 6D store. They do offer one pit with 8D games. I don't know what the minimums are there since I avoid that pit.

I have only been to Trump Marina a couple of times and it was during the weekend. IIRC, they did have some $15 minimum games. I suspect that they are similar to the other Trump offerings, but don't quote me on that.

I haven't been to Harrahs in about 3 years, so I don't know what they have to offer. I would imagine they offer poor games like their other stores.

Additional reasons
Posted by Sonny on 18-Jan-2005 14:47:52 (#11806)

Vegas has plenty of $3 and $5 minimums,and they sill offer a few good single- and double-deck games for low stakes. In my opinion, it is the perfect place to practice.

-Sonny-

ADMIN. ?....What is with the Highlights????
Posted by phantom007 on 17-Jan-2005 22:07:16 (#11797)

Checking into CC.com tonight, I noted that certain words in multiple posts are highlighted, i.e., Underlined in Yellow. Moving my cursor over the "Yellow-underlined" word "Casino" gives me a pop-up to Casino888.com...clicking that box takes me there....and when I "x-out", I go back to OBLIVION, not CC.com.

Likewise, the word "Vegas" in some posts takes me to "travel deals".

Even CC.Com Online Store is effected/affected/infected....Software is highlighted, and gives me info. on some new MSN Software.

????....Is the problem on MY end, is this intentional on the part of this site???

phantom007.

I had this problem before
Posted by suicyco maniac on 17-Jan-2005 22:57:22 (#11798)

and after some virus scans it went away...just my experience. SM

you have been hijacked
Posted by The Mayor on 17-Jan-2005 23:33:19 (#11799)

This is certainly not a problem with cc.com.

You have what's known as a browser hijacker on your computer. They are tough to get out. I've had them a couple of times and each time my a.v. software did not catch them. I now fiercely protect against spyware and hijacers. Even so, I got another one in October 04.

Best luck!

--Mayor

Advice to all: get rid of Internet Explorer
Posted by BlackJackHack on 18-Jan-2005 09:19:49 (#11802)

One piece of advice to all: get rid of Internet Explorer. Most browser hijackers are designed with MSIE in mind, since 90%+ of Internet users use that browser. If you switch to an alternative broswer, you will not get hijacked.

I use Mozilla Firefox (free at www.mozilla.org). Not only is it hijacker-resistant, but it is a superior broswer in nearly every respect -- it blocks popups and permits "tabbed" browsing.

The source of these programs
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Jan-2005 10:38:43 (#11803)

Malicious spyware seems to arise mostly when we visit online casinos (and their affiliate sponsors), adult sites, go looking for crackz/serialz/mp3z, click on certain internet links that the search engines think are valid, click on links in some emails, and all the other things we do.

I seem to have a new ad-jacker (a hijacker that advertises a product or website at random times). This is a small thing, and I am going to blast it with my spyware.

You know, this is ALL Bill Gate's fault. He designed this crappy software, made sure there would be little or no competition, then charges us to fix it by forcing us to buy these 3-rd party products. Linux and OS-X have no such problems -- they are completely safe.

Then again, maybe people could just be nicer and not set out to infect our computers at every click of the mouse.

--Mayor

I found a possible source...
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Jan-2005 10:51:39 (#11804)

The people who host the monthly poll (Bravenet) have been so kind as to put adware into our computers. There is a simple fix (at least it worked for me).

(From Tools / Internet Options) Delete all cookies.

--beware, you will have to type in your passwords and account names to all online accounts that "remember" you.

You could probabaly delete the specific cookie from Bravenet, but you have to know how to do that.

It is a good idea to set your brower to not accept third-party cookies. You can also set it to not accept any pop-up ads.

--Mayor

Bravenet be gone?
Posted by LVBear584 on 18-Jan-2005 14:04:31 (#11805)

The people who host the monthly poll (Bravenet) have been so kind as to put adware into our computers. There is a simple fix (at least it worked for me).

I assume you will be getting rid of Bravenet?

Yes ...
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Jan-2005 15:59:09 (#11807)

Bravenet violated my "law" of cookie spam. They will be no more (shortly).

ad ware
Posted by pooker101 on 19-Jan-2005 09:00:26 (#11815)

I have to agree with a previous poster GET RId OF IE.
Mozilla will eliminate 99.9% of your problems period. It's a great program I recomend it to everyone. Also two free programs Spybot Search and Destroy. Or for the more technical savvy Hijackthis. Both should be easily found with a google search. Just to show how effective Mozilla is though. Before installing it I would scan and remove spyware from my computer every two or three days since then I havent used either of those programs. It's dreamy

Survey Idea
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 18-Jan-2005 18:44:54 (#11808)

Eliot,
I have an idea for a survey. It seems a lot of the participants in the message boards may not read as many blackjack books as I feel they should. I get the impression that some visitors read a few websites and get the 'jist of what card counting is, but I don't think they realize what sort of study others have invested. I am curious as to what the average number of blackjack books read by the group is. A survey such as this might show the newer players that reading a book or two is only the beginning on the road to blackjack excellence. Or it may prove that I have in fact wasted some free time reading upwards of 25 books on blackjack.
Just a thought

over 60
Posted by suicyco maniac on 18-Jan-2005 19:35:41 (#11809)

I must admit I try to read everything I can on the subject (respectable books anyway) and I have learned something from almost all of them but there is so much more that you learn by just playing that you cannot learn from the books and frankly I wouldn't want anyone printing the info anyway. SM

Nice idea, but...
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Jan-2005 19:53:45 (#11810)

I just nixed the survey software. It was a freebie by a company called Bravenet. Unfortunately they were putting adware on our computers, which was unethical (at least). So, until the next (kinder/gentler) survey software comes along, we will be surveyless.

As far as your point, I quite agree. But I think that 1 book is all that's really needed to make a winner. I am reminded of the saying from Chess -- when the Chess master was asked how many moves he thought ahead: "just one, but it's the right one." Read, study, practice, and learn one right book and you are fine.

As for me -- too many books. Where does blackjack end and gambling begin? I've read poker books, roulette books, books on cheating, books on being supervisors and security, books on comps, books on "other methods" of beating blackjack, etc...

Now the question is, what is the one "right book." That is, if you want to tell someone to read exactly one book, no more, and have that person get as good as possible, what book is it? My money is with Professional Blackjack, by SW. Others might say KO, or Blackjack for Blood, or...

--Mayor

I could be wrong but......
Posted by suicyco maniac on 18-Jan-2005 20:27:48 (#11811)

.....I seem to remember having a certian friend that runs a certian BJ webpage who seems to know a thing or two about programing and could probably write his own survey program....or I could be wrong :-) BTW haven't heard from you in a while Eliot but I had that talk with my friend and we worked something out and since then we are doing alot better. SM

Wonging without getting noticed
Posted by airasia on 18-Jan-2005 22:53:01 (#11812)

OK, I'm sure this is probably an obvious answer to most of you people, but as I said in a previous post I am new to card counting; I've only mastered counting and most of the important strategy variations and haven't even played in a casino yet. I was wondering how you can "wong" in a casino without it being obvious that you are waiting for a better count to re-enter the shoe? And what places will you wong and have the easiest time not getting caught?

wonging
Posted by Gibbs1 on 19-Jan-2005 01:17:20 (#11813)

When I started to backcount shoes, I also felt a bit self-conscious. One way to deal with the self-consciousness is to find a table with someone of your ethnic, age, or gender demographic. Stand near that person and pretend like you're friends without talking to him. The person probably won't notice or care since he's facing the other way, but to the pit personnel, it seems like you're just hanging out with your friend. Eventually, you'll stop feeling out of place, and it be easy to backcount in any situation.

If possible, stand so that you're facing the table next to the one you are counting. Try to look interested in what's going on in this table, and occasionally glance over to the other one.

Also, you can do the cell-phone trick, where you pretend like you're talking on your cell-phone as you count the cards on the table. Feel free to leave the table in a negative count under the pretense of having to make a phone call.

Making a living playing blackjack
Posted by airasia on 19-Jan-2005 12:36:52 (#11818)

If you still can, how many of you do? And where do you play?

Yes, but not me.
Posted by SammyBoy on 20-Jan-2005 15:45:06 (#11840)

There are pro's out there playing full time and making a living. The Mayor has an interview in his book with LVBear, who is a full time pro in Vegas.

My guess is you have to be willing to play many different places at different times of the day, being very careful not to wear out your welcome.

seems like a tough life *NM*
Posted by wongout on 21-Jan-2005 22:07:12 (#11856)

tough life
Posted by eyesfor21 on 22-Jan-2005 10:17:15 (#11858)

Yes,travelling,getting free food,beautiful gals,lovely hotels,
and making tax free cash: boy its rough !

"Tax free cash"? Where?
Posted by LVBear584 on 22-Jan-2005 21:51:26 (#11866)

...making tax free cash ...

How can it be tax free? Being a skilled player does not mean you become a tax criminal. I believe the vast majority of skilled players accurately report their incomes and pay their taxes honestly. Why would you think otherwise?

legally tax free under 10k win per session
Posted by eyesfor21 on 22-Jan-2005 22:35:10 (#11867)

-according to my cpa that does my books.
I have never received tax forms from any casino when I win, because
they do not know if you lost the night before.

Sure if you want to get technical and declare all you can,
and you can even declare loses too.

Casinos and the IRS know its a complicated task.

Your CPA is advocating criminal behavior
Posted by LVBear584 on 23-Jan-2005 11:57:12 (#11869)

The lack of a reporting requirement for the casino does not make the income "tax free." Your CPA obviously knows this, and is either twisting his statement for whatever reason, or you have a terrible misunderstanding of what he said.

Casinos and the IRS know its a complicated task.

What�s complicated about keeping an Excel spreadsheet, or even a paper log of session results, and a daily diary of expenses? Record-keeping is a requirement for all businesses; advantage play is no different.

Not reporting your profit from casino games on your tax return is a crime. It�s that simple. Casino winnings are no different than any other reportable income. Sure, most recreational players, and even some part-time pros, may break the law and hide the income from the government. That doesn't mean it's not a crime. The excuse of "Well, everyone else does it" won't fly if you are the one audited. Your CPA won't be the one paying the fine and/or serving the jail time. I recommend you check with him again, and/or get an honest CPA.

Taxes
Posted by Chancer on 23-Jan-2005 12:39:39 (#11870)

If you were to become a resident of the UK, you wouldn't have to pay any tax on any gambling winnings. I think most high level players go down this route......

then you should legally declare comps
Posted by eyesfor21 on 23-Jan-2005 15:22:04 (#11873)

here is what a tax agency says regarding gamling laws and rules
re taxes:

Gambling wins/losses can be reported only in the year they occur.
Bingo and slot wins over $1200 require a W-2.
Keno wins over $1500 require a W-2.
Horse, dog, lottery, jai-alai wins over $600 require a W-2, but only if the win is at least 300 times greater than the amount wagered.
Wins on table games require no W-2, but the casino collects taxes on wins of $5000 and over making the casino a de-facto government tax collection agency. If you have real large table game winnings I would change only amounts of less than the amount stated above each trip to the casino cage.
Here is a good one: comps are taxable income and need to be included in reported winnings. Believe me, the Feds will check,if they can check wins they
will check comps.
Non resident aliens pay 30% tax of their winnings up front but blackjack, craps, baccarat, big 6 and roulette winnings are excluded and are instead reported on form 1042-S.
Gambling losses can only be offset against gambling wins and only in the year they occurred. And never against ordinary income.

that may be technically accurate.
Posted by gehrig on 25-Jan-2005 11:30:14 (#11911)

a "benefit" such as a free room, may have a taxable value. logic would suggest that if the donor, the licensee, declares that "comp" to be an "expense", then the recipient might need to declare it to be a taxable event. i'm not certain that the tax gatherers worry small "comps". but surely such "comps" as autos, luxury suites, shopping sprees at high end venues, should be accounted for by both parties.

could be that with the gaming industry's crusade for accurate comps on even table game play, coupled with decreased memory costs, that we see tidy, detailed, complete, "p&l" statments for each player. so far, only win-loss statements are available to slot players, on request. player tracking/evaluation software in use mostly provides "p&l", but without low value comps. the next small step is to add in all comps and make these reports universally available to the player and the tax gatherers. likely were even those current, year end statements to be automatically sent to the homes of players, there'd be some sparks.

One small correction...
Posted by Geasy John on 25-Jan-2005 15:50:22 (#11913)

I believe any slot win of $1,200 or more requires a w2-G (not OVER $1,200).

hey bear
Posted by wong out on 24-Jan-2005 20:55:10 (#11896)

ok; is it an easy way to make a living?? inquiring minds want to know!

wong out

Not easy. Many hassles and much time spent in unpleasant, hostile environment
Posted by LVBear584 on 25-Jan-2005 01:55:32 (#11904)

ok; is it an easy way to make a living??

It depends on what else you have done or are able to do. Your age, work experience, life expectations, family situation, need for health insurance, and other factors must be figured in. There is no simple answer. For some it is the most enjoyable and best-paying thing they have ever done. For others, it is drudgery; they hate going to casinos, and do it only for the money with no enjoyment.

It is easy compared to, say, construction work or other hard physical labor. It is stress-free compared to what I imagine an air traffic controller, brain surgeon, or nurse goes through every day. But advantage play is hard compared to some middle management position in a do-nothing government agency or a large corporation, where you have to do little more than show up, attend a few useless meetings, and line up at the feeding trough on payday.

It depends on your own temperament, too. I despise casinos. Almost all full-time or serious part-time players despise casinos. I despise them more every day. Therefore, I enjoy taking their money more than I used to. But I don't need to and am not willing to put in as many hours as I used to.

If you'll post something about your life situation, without giving up enough information to identify you, I'll be glad to make more comments or suggestions.

re: tough life
Posted by wong out on 23-Jan-2005 21:44:15 (#11877)

"Yes,travelling,getting free food,beautiful gals,lovely hotels,
and making tax free cash: boy its rough!"

Problem is travelling sucks when you have to do it frequently to stay in biz and ahead of surveillance. Free food is ok; not sure whether gamblers attract more beautiful girls than other folks - everything else you mention is tough not easy. Specifically:

Tax free - not in the US;
Lovely Hotels - dicey at best - if using a mailer from a previous play then ok; if playing on a current trip and staying at their hotel - you also run a real isk of transferring hotels unexpectedly at 3am;

Now lets look at some of the downsides:

-no health ins;
-no sick days;
-no 401K;
-no vacation days;
-no perks (stock options, frequent flyer miles, no eating out on a vendor's tab;
-frequent barrings if you play high enough to earn a decent wage;
-variance (shouldnt bother you if properly financed but if not then watch out!);
-if playing full time may have to compromise game quality to get the hours in;

Bottom line if smart enough to make a living at BJ; then you are probably smart enough to make more doing something else. I know a few high stakes pros and their life is anything but easy (and they would tell you that). The reason that that they do it is because its the best way that they figured out how to make a living.

To each his own but be forewarned its not easy....

wong out

wong
Posted by eyesfor21 on 23-Jan-2005 22:07:32 (#11878)

I was just mentioning a few of the positive points of course
there are negative, none of the points you touched on are
negative for me though. Most full time players have other
entrepreneur projects they do to compensate. The biggest joy
is personal freedom and the ability to have peace of mind.

who says you have to be smart
Posted by airasia on 23-Jan-2005 22:25:23 (#11879)

It doesn't exactly to take smarts to play winning blackjack and make a living I don't think, it just takes the acquired skill of counting and strategy adjustments which most people can pick up after lots of practice. So I don't really agree with that statement of "bottom line, if you're smart enough to make a living playing blackjack, you could probably make more doing something else."

Dedication
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 24-Jan-2005 10:24:12 (#11886)

If you have the "dedication" that it takes to become a professional blackjack player, chances are you could earn more money doing something else (with less effort). But I think "smart" is a good word. Consistently earning money at blackjack is not just about practicing the system. Implementation is the key. That is where the smarts come in.

re: smart
Posted by wong out on 24-Jan-2005 20:50:14 (#11895)

I didnt mean that you had to be smart to play a winning game of BJ. I think that anyone of avg intelligence can pick up this +1, +2 thing easy enough. I said that you had to be smart to make a living at it. I agree that it takes dedication; perhaps I should have said that you have to be smart to make a "decent" living at it.

To earn a long term living wage at this game; requires some degree of smarts. You are running a small biz and if not careful can easily go into the red (even if winning at the tables); and you have to be smart enough to move around to stay ahead of the heat but not move around so much that your ev suffers due to reduced hours or increased operting expenses.

like i said to each his own; but it seems like a tough life to me for a relatively small amount of money.

wong out

9 vs 7 indices
Posted by JR on 19-Jan-2005 17:12:54 (#11825)

Not a big deal, but the indice for 9 Vs 7 on this site is 4, but in Professional Blackjack it is 3. How come? Thanks in advance.

I use...
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Jan-2005 18:55:56 (#11828)

9 vs. 7 is +7 (in Halves).

Posted are the indices generated by a sim using Wong's own PBJA software. I don't think the difference in EV between doubling 9 vs. 7 at +3 or +4 Hi-Lo will buy you a cup of coffee over a lifetime.

--Mayor

Use +4 *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 19-Jan-2005 20:24:27 (#11831)

index differences
Posted by jp on 20-Jan-2005 04:52:48 (#11836)

+4 is the risk averse index for 9 vs 7. It is the "safer" index since risk is factored in. There is a table in _Blackjack_Attack_ with some risk averse index numbers. I don't know if there is a table with more numbers available.

+7 for Hi-Opt II *NM*
Posted by Sonny on 20-Jan-2005 19:26:41 (#11841)

+8 for ZEN *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 20-Jan-2005 21:19:00 (#11842)

ZG..Trueing to 1 deck? *NM*
Posted by Cyrano on 21-Jan-2005 17:42:27 (#11851)

Yes, (RA) *NM*
Posted by zengrifter on 22-Jan-2005 01:37:56 (#11857)

+7 for AOII as Well *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 21-Jan-2005 17:22:37 (#11849)

new places possibly for bj
Posted by eyesfor21 on 19-Jan-2005 17:56:34 (#11827)

Virgin to Offer Gambling on 'Superjumbos'
no word yet if it will be double deck.

By LAURENCE FROST, AP Business Writer

TOULOUSE, France - High-paying passengers aboard Virgin Atlantic's Airbus "superjumbos" will be able to work out in the gym, get a makeover, gamble in a casino then head to the bar for some cocktails before easing onto a double bed.

Virgin boss Richard Branson made the announcement Tuesday as he attended the official debut of the new A380 at Airbus headquarters in Toulouse, southern France.

Some of the Boeing 747s in Virgin's existing fleet are equipped with double beds for first-class passengers and bars where travelers can stretch their legs while sipping a beer.

But Branson vowed to extend the concept when Virgin takes delivery of its six A380s beginning in 2008.

"We plan to have a gym area for our passengers to stretch and work out during the flight," Branson said. "We're going to introduce a beauty parlor, we plan to have a casino."

The A380 can carry 555 passengers in a three-class cabin � one-third more passengers than a 747 � with a lower operating cost per seat as well as much more cabin space left over for other amenities.

Airlines with upscale business models are likely to equip the plane with fewer seats to leave more space for lavish facilities and first-class berths.

At the other end of the scale, a budget carrier or charter operator serving busy holiday routes would be able to seat more than 800 passengers comfortably in a single coach-class configuration.

Most of the airlines that have ordered the A380 so far are keeping mum about what features they plan to offer on board.

Qatar Airways said Tuesday its A380s would seat just 490 passengers, but gave no details of its planned cabin layouts. Geoff Dixon, CEO of Australia's Qantas Airways, said its superjumbo cabin designs would be unveiled in the next few weeks.

With seats for 500 passengers, Virgin's A380 would be slightly less spacious than Qatar's.

Getting 86'ed
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 19-Jan-2005 20:22:54 (#11830)

"Sir, I'm afraid we're going to have to ask you to leave the casino. Everyone else, please be seated and fasten your seat belts."

Very unlikely they'll have any table games onboard- the dealers will have to be union guys and the cheapskate airlines won't want that. It'll be just machines.

leave it to Branson
Posted by eyesfor21 on 19-Jan-2005 20:51:43 (#11833)

1. This guy is the Donald Trump of England,
he doesn't do anything cheap
2. The have many bjack tables on cruise ships , no reason the huge
oversized airbus will not have bjack tables.

Looking forward to doubling down on hard 12's baby!

Branson
Posted by blueeyedsamurai on 24-Jan-2005 15:30:07 (#11890)

I would be amazed if his super jumbo's end up with gyms.I doubt the gym idea because the facilities needed to clean up afterwards would take up too much room, weigh too much and have no way of turning a profit. Perhaps a small exercise room for Upper Class but definatley not Premium & Economy.

The casino is a maybe but I can not see it happening.

Remember when the 747 first came out the bubble on top was a restaurant, before the airlines realsied it was more profitable as seats.

No doubt these super jumbos will have some 'roam around' space so that the airlines can limit the liability they could face thorugh court action related to DVT.

Thanks Eliot......
Posted by suicyco maniac on 19-Jan-2005 20:49:58 (#11832)

.....for keeping me up til 8AM. Yesterday after a night at the tables I arived home about 6:30AM and in my mailbox was my copy of blackjack in the zone....Oops I mean the blackjack zone (sorry just had to say it). I spent the next hour and a half reading the whole book. My first surprise was that I got copy #37. I figured I would be way way way further down the list then that...but even more surprising was seeing that you mentioned me in the acknowledgements and ya you are right I don't understand how or why..its clearly not because of all my bitching and moaning :-) Anyway I must admit I didn't learn much from the book as it is obviously geared tword new players and not tword hardened counters as you cleary state "if you are an expert... counter... don't wast your time get back to the tables" but like I said in another post I almost always learn something from every book I read and last night I learned there have been 14 perfect games in baseball (not exactly earth shatering BJ news but knowledge none the less) Thanks for everything you have done for me and congrats and much sucess on your book. Very well written and easy to read. Take Care SM

One more thing
Posted by suicyco maniac on 19-Jan-2005 21:03:36 (#11834)

In Appendix A "Top web resources"...........why the hell didn't you list cardcounter.com? SM

Why...
Posted by The Mayor on 20-Jan-2005 08:38:20 (#11837)

It was there, then I took it out. I advertise it several places in the book, including on the inside of the back cover. It just felt ever so vain (if you know what I mean).

Also, as for the 14 perfect games, that is not *for all time* that is for the last 100 years. 1905-2004. "The Baseball Zone" ... reaching the long-run in baseball.

I Wondered the Same Thing...
Posted by SammyBoy on 20-Jan-2005 15:41:56 (#11839)

Why you did not mention cardcounter.com. I can understand your feelings and I probably would have felt the same way, but it should be there, and I think someone should have overruled you on that one. :-)

Shows how close I follow sports eh?
Posted by suicyco maniac on 21-Jan-2005 06:35:41 (#11844)

Overall a very good book for the begining player....I will be looking forward to your second book you were thinking of writing if you ever get around to it....I love the idea. SM

Ditto
Posted by hinoon on 22-Jan-2005 23:33:24 (#11868)

I just wanted to mention the two parts of the book that I really enjoy:

I really love Chapter 6, Zen and the Art of Blackjack. It sets the tone and is very well said. I'd read it before when it was posted in your online articles, and am happy to have it in print. It's a good mantra for getting into the "zone" and particularly for controlling one's emotions after a bad bout of negative variance.

The other thing that caught me by surprise is the back cover. No, not the accolades from Wong and the rest....but rather the stylish little trail of stardust that follows over from the city skyline on the front. Very subtle and classy.

Of course, that's not to say the rest of the book isn't enjoyable, those are just the two things I've caught myself reflecting on more than once after finishing the book.

Good stuff Eliot.

Blackjack software
Posted by BJack700 on 21-Jan-2005 08:42:26 (#11846)

Was wondering if anyone could direct me to where you can get blackjack software that allows you to set the deck manually to different sizes? I've searched everywhere, but to no evail. Or what are the best programs available to practice your counts. I'm still not quite to intermediate status. Thanks!

easy
Posted by stainless steel rat on 21-Jan-2005 14:52:19 (#11847)

CVBJ (www.qfit.com). You can play anything from 1deck to 6decks, you set the penetration, you set the rules you want (DAS/NDAS etc) and play away. Set your counting strategy and the program will bug you if you make a wrong play based on the count and the indices you are using, it will bug you if you make the wrong bet, etc. It drills to test your strategy, playing indices, ability to count correctly, ability to count a whole table at one time, ability to back-count two tables at a time if you are really good, etc.

It's a blast. After a couple of months I have all the speeds turned up wide open and I keep up with no problem. When I started using it, after counting for about 3.5 years, full speed was impossible...

WSOBJ 2
Posted by KevinBlackwood on 21-Jan-2005 17:31:00 (#11850)

My first round match against Hollywood Dave Stann and tournament expert Joe Pane at the World Series of Blackjack will air tonight on the GSN network. It also will repeat again on Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday.

You Did GOOD! *NM*
Posted by Radar on 22-Jan-2005 11:34:45 (#11859)

Saw you on the airplane last night!
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 22-Jan-2005 20:58:36 (#11865)

I was on JetBlue and they offer DirecTV. It was great! Especially those players teaching the public about playing progressions and DD on 12. It didn't seem like they were making it totally clear that what you do in a tournament is nothing like what you do in a real game against the house.

The only part I didn't like was the implied statement that a card counter can count and talk and act like an idiot at the same time. My specialty is singing loudly while the dealer is dealing. Good thing they didn't show anybody drinking like a fish, that would give away all my secrets.

Good play!

shuffle tracking?
Posted by mark on 21-Jan-2005 18:44:18 (#11852)

which book would you recommend for shuffle tracking:
blackjack ace prediction or shuffle tracking cookbook?

You want the cookbook
Posted by Myooligan on 22-Jan-2005 11:38:35 (#11860)

BJAP covers a few shuffle tracking concepts in passing, but it's really geared toward ace location. Also, there's currently a lot of controversy regarding the accuracy of BJAP (see blackjackforumonline.com, whereas the Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook has weathered the test of time.

Shuffle Tracking
Posted by Sonny on 22-Jan-2005 12:16:04 (#11861)

> which book would you recommend for shuffle tracking:
> blackjack ace prediction or shuffle tracking cookbook?

I believe that the cookbook has much more explicit information for tracking specific shuffles whereas Ace Prediction gives mostly the methodology of recognizing insufficient shuffles and determining their weaknesses. I would recommend the cookbook if you just want to learn how to track a particular shuffle, but if you want to know to track certain cards through a shuffle or know the secret �sweet spots� you should read Ace Prediction.

-Sonny-

The Current Hot Topic *LINK*
Posted by Titaniumman on 22-Jan-2005 15:06:02 (#11863)

Arnold Snyder has written an article in the second edition of the new free electronic Blackjack Forum in which he points out serious flaws in McDowell's book. I have provided a link to the article.

On this page, there is a thread down below on this.

There is also discussions of this on Arnold's site and on BJ21.com Greenchip.

thanks for the link
Posted by mark on 22-Jan-2005 20:37:35 (#11864)

Thanks alot!!I went to that link. I'm guessing he doesn't recommend McDowell's book:)
while in the link I saw an article, "special report: the best count
system". there is 100 systems listed in that article and a handful of
the systems that have a BC of 1.00. I know that criteria was only 1 deck,
but is that even possible with a multiple deck game?

link to best count system
Posted by mark on 23-Jan-2005 15:29:38 (#11874)

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/hundred.htm

Good question *LINK*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 25-Jan-2005 20:56:55 (#11922)

ST Cookbook and BJ Ace Prediction are both highly valuable books. Neither is perfect. Completely ignore the recent comments on BJ Ace Prediction. The negative posters have ulterior motives and their math is not close. I know pros that use concepts from both. These are complex areas of advantage play. You cannot expect a complete recipe for success in print. But, you can gain important concepts from both books.

norm

Norm, I am not a math whiz like you
Posted by Sohrab on 25-Jan-2005 21:35:54 (#11925)

but what Snyder wrote about Aces book sounded plausible to me. Can you tell us where he is wrong? It would really help me and others I think.

Math *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 26-Jan-2005 07:25:23 (#11934)

Several of the assumptions are incorrect in the recent posts on BJAP 'math.' I leave it to others to consider whether this was careless or malicious. But if anyone actually believes knowing the location of that many Aces will gain you nothing more than simply counting, then why do they even bother with BJ:-)

A little "non-expert" analysis of my own...
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Jan-2005 08:59:03 (#11936)

I am not at all an expert at Shuffle Tracking, but for fun I recently wrote my own code to study the standard single deck shuffle. I'll share some of the results here... though my program is much more specific than what I reproduce here...

If you key an ace (that is, look at the card above the ace in the discard tray) then perform the standard shuffle (riffle riffle strip riffle cut), then what I found out is that 24% of the time the ace and the key were "reversed" by a break, so that the key didn't work (the ace came out first). In the 76% of the shuffles that were trackable (there was no break), the ace appeared after the key within 13 cards almost exactly 80% of the time. The other 20% of the time, the ace and key were separated by more than 13 cards.

Thus:

if you see key before ace -- you have .8 aces in the next 13 cards by virtue of that keyed ace. Of the remaining 3 aces in the deck you can expect .75 of those to appear in the next 13 cards. Thus you will get 1.55 aces in the next 13 cards instead of the expected 1 ace. This is an extra .55/13 = .042 aces per card. Since an ace has an EV of about 50%, keying in this fashion gives an edge of approximately .042*.5 = .021 = 2.1% for the next 13 cards (or until the keyed ace comes out).

You only get this edge when

1) The ace and key are not reversed
2) The key appears early in the shuffle -- say the first 13 cards (so you will have the opportunity to see 13 more cards)

1) happens 76% of the time
2) happens 25% of the time

Thus your actual gained edge by using a keyed ace in single deck is:

(.76)*(.25)*(2.1%) = .40%

Now the house edge at single deck off the top is .18% so by keying a single ace in single deck, you can gain an edge of .40% - .18% = .22%.

By keying multiple aces, or refining the expected range for the ace after the key, higher edges can be attained.

OK, that's my story.

Finally, I want to extend a warm welcome to Norm. His comments about ST books are right on the money. Most books on ST have errors: some intentional, some accidental, some by virtue of incompetence. You have to choose what's valuable and correct and make it your own, but at some point you will have to do your own research (use Norm's software to help).

--Eliot

Thanks for sharing the goods on SD, Eliot! *NM*
Posted by Myooligan on 01-Feb-2005 20:42:03 (#11998)

A counter "comes of age"
Posted by stainless steel rat on 02-Feb-2005 14:42:28 (#11999)

Here is my own "story" about a simple-minded shuffle-tracking opportunity.

A couple of years ago my usual "group" was visiting an indian casino. My brother son and I were playing a 6d shoe that was getting pretty good penetration, and had good rules excepting late surrender which was not available here. We had played for two days off and on, and something kept "tickling" my sub-conscious, but I could not figure out what it was.

Finally, the last morning (we were leaving that night) the following happened...

On two consecutive shoes, the RC hit over +10, and bam, out came the stop card. My brother had looked at me as we were getting beat up betting big and the small cards were flying, running the RC up and running our bankroll down. After the second shoe of +10 and beyond, as I set there stewing, this is what I saw:

The dealer took the remaining unplayed deck (we were getting 5 of 6 decks dealt from this dealer) and stuck them on top of the discard stack. He then took the discards out, broke them into two piles, and started shuffling. He made a grab from each pile, maybe 1/2 deck in each grab, riffled the cards, but didn't "square" them up. He put this "approximate deck" in the center. He made two more grabs, one from each pile, riffled and stacked. He repeated until all 6 decks were nicely riffled and stacked, then he called out "check shuffle" or something like that. The pit boss looked over and said "OK". The dealer squared the cards, offered me the cut card, and it dawned on me... "that last 52 cards had a running count of +10. It is roughly now distributed over the bottom two decks in this pile. I carefully placed the cut card about 2 decks from the rear, to bring that 2 decks of +5 each to the front, and immediately plonked out my big bet. My brother stared, and raised his bet a big with a puzzled look. My son ditto. Needless to say, the first third of that shoe was quite friendly. As the stop card came out, my brother got up to leave and I followed. He asked "what was that all about???" I said let's go up to the room and I'll show you." I did and he said "wow".

Flash forward a couple of months to a visit to vegas. First shoe was similar, good RC, out comes the stop card leaving maybe 1.25 decks left. OK, let's get ready to watch the dealer.

You know the rest of the story. Different process entirely. Dealer took the 1.25 decks left, broke it into three slugs, inserted each at different points in the discard trey. Then two shuffle passes. The first just like the indian store, the second took two grabs and shuffled, put down 1/2 and used that with a single grab from one of the remaining piles, to further dilute those slugs, as if splitting them up wasn't enough. So, for that trip, we relied on counting alone and did OK.

I assume this doesn't reveal too much since the idea is old hat. If you think it does, feel free to bust this post. I was proud of the idea, but the vegas trip quickly showed us that not only had the idea been previously exploited, but that the house had an effective counter-measure.

I have not studied any advanced shuffle-tracking stuff, I don't want my head to explode when playing at the table. But those single shuffles can be murdered, and yes, I have seen one within the last 6 months still..

one more note
Posted by stainless steel rat on 02-Feb-2005 14:50:44 (#12000)

On another visit to the "indian store" I found an 8d game with that same simple-minded shuffle. I missed the stop card insertion trying to find my brother but found him and we sat down to play. Stop card came out, running count was up at +14, and I thought, OK, time to exploit this. Then I looked as the dealer was removing the undealt cards and damn, there was a lot of them. After she did the simple shuffle, she used the width of the stop card (about 2.5") to mark the point from the rear of the pack to where the stop card was inserted. At .6 inches per deck or a little less, we were getting 50-55% penetration. In an 8D game.

next table, please. We did play later and found a dealer cutting off about 1 deck rather than 3-4 decks and did pretty well.

I thought 50% on DD was bad. but on 8D?

Of course they needed it to offset the horrible shuffle.

Crappy penetration
Posted by suicyco maniac on 02-Feb-2005 20:44:22 (#12001)

Can sometimes be a big benifit when tracking. SM

maybe
Posted by stainless steel rat on 02-Feb-2005 22:38:10 (#12003)

the idea will "hit" me at some point. But 50% in 8D was something I couldn't come up with an idea that I could mentally manage. The RC would not likely go very high with that many cards out of play, and using my "highly simplistic shuffle-tracking idea" I end up with a whole shoe with the average count of the last half of the old shoe plus the negative of the RC for the first half, which is probably going to be about zero. :)

In any case, the idea has gotten my attention, and I'm going to start watching shuffles more closely, and am probably going to write a shuffle simulator so that I can understand what is happening to the cards "in general".

Without much thought, I suspect that the ideas of ace-tracking, etc, are a result of the more thorough shuffling techniques that make the old trick I stumbled onto ineffective.

wish I'd started playing 30 years earlier. :)

Why should they?
Posted by Titaniumman on 26-Jan-2005 00:46:41 (#11933)

Completely ignore the recent comments on BJ Ace Prediction.

Norm,

These people are smarter than that. The criticisms about Blackjack Ace Prediction have been backed up with mathematics that many astute members of the blackjack community acknowledge.

Instead of telling people to ignore the criticisms, I strongly think you should be providing evidence, if it exists, to the contrary if you disagree.

Norm, you are no...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Jan-2005 17:04:45 (#11950)

... PROFESSOR! zg

New Vegas & Gambling Articles...
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Jan-2005 19:23:26 (#11853)

... are now posted on the nonBJ board. zg

The Western N Las Vegas...........
Posted by Anthony on 23-Jan-2005 14:40:51 (#11872)

To all single deck players:

You may have seen the picture of the Western and notation about the people that play there, and it's correct. However, it's a great place for the beginners to learn to count and have a low minimums, $3.00 not bad, plus you get paid 3-2.

Of course you get paid 3 to 2 *LINK*
Posted by LVBear584 on 24-Jan-2005 01:01:29 (#11880)

...plus you get paid 3-2

You should not even consider playing a 6 to 5 ploppy ripoff game. Getting paid 3 to 2 on blackjacks is a given, not an "extra." The original poster undoubtedly knows this, but since the post was directed at beginners, I thought that stating the obvious may be helpful. See link below for other games to avoid.

the western hotel casino is in...
Posted by gehrig on 24-Jan-2005 15:51:46 (#11891)

the city of las vegas, not north las vegas. there are one or two worthy games in the city of north las vegas, and of course, several more in the city of las vegas. the largest number of casino licensees are in clark county which begins south of sahara.

Where's the 3-2 games in clark county??????
Posted by Anthony on 25-Jan-2005 09:09:58 (#11906)

Where's 3-2? In Clark County

Being recreational player of the count system playing single deck counting 3-6's adjanst Ten value cards, and keeping a side count of Ace's Where's the games around town that pay 3-2 w/single deck. LVBear woke me up when he spoke about the 6-5 game and that it's not good and 3-2 isn't an extra.

Thanks

get a copy of cbjn for what & where.
Posted by gehrig on 25-Jan-2005 10:51:49 (#11908)

note that "strip" joints for the most part only offer 3:2 snapper pays on shoe games. "downtown" and "neighborhood" joints mostly still have 3:2 pays on pitch games. the grey/indistinct area is on the double deck games which are just starting to enjoy 6:5 payouts.

what's amazing to me is that the las vegas 21 games seem to perpetually hold around 15% +. i wonder just how much more they need to squeeze from the game before the tribal joints steal and permanently keep, erstwhile "visitors". in my many years of operating businesses i learned not to provide shade for a competitor. very rarely did i lose a customer because he "got a better deal" somewhere else. once lost, these customers are tough to get back. if nevada casino hold percentages rise significantly, there is little doubt that the long term effect will be a reduction in visitor-gamblers.

the greater aim within the nevada resort industry is for enhanced revenues from non-gaming sources, viz.: rising room rates; exorbitant "show" prices; new properties with multiple, $50+/diner meals; high-end shopping arcades; "tougher" comps for players/losers. i suggest that the trend toward "tightening" the benefits will long term reduce or at least, "plateau" the usually increasing visitor volume. like a car, without "r's", the horsepower is unimportant; in the gaming biz, without visitor volume, what's the difference how high might be the hold percentage ?

a thread was begun on the lv advisor freebie message board regarding how visitors choose a gaming destination. so far, the responses seem to be related to an anticipation of some "win". when the nevada resort association distances itself from that core business, could be that sizzle alone will no longer sell the steak. like the lady said..."where's the beef ?"

Gehrig, much to think about
Posted by victoria on 25-Jan-2005 17:04:30 (#11915)

I, like all of you, see the poor games in Vegas getting worse. Living in California I know of Indian Casinos where I can get a shoe game that is S-17, LSR, all the expected rules and penetration of 5/6 not unusual. Go to the strip and search and you can find this game but the limits may be a little high for you, or the place watches their games closely. I have found most California casinos do not watch the games or perhaps have the ability to analyse play as well as those in Vegas. They are crowded, loaded with bad players and bad machines, in other words they might as well be printing money.

I wonder if at this point in time, the strip has decided that between vacationers and convention goers who pay high rates, do not know the ins and outs of the games, pay for shows, meals etc etc, that they can now ignore gamblers who want decent rules and fill their places with casino fools. It is fairly obvious that the big corporate places have. If Gehrig is correct and someday the conventions will go elsewhere along with the vacation folks, Vegas may be in for a real recession. Yes, they will have a hard time getting the players back!

Another thought; though we look at blackjack, other games are worsening also. I know that finding favorable pay tables on VP machines on the strip is getting harder to do all the time.

I think the casino business in Vegas has gone through cycles before and this might be another one. At the same time it might never come back and just be either a successful evolution or unsuccessful evolution of the town. Changing it or damaging it beyond repair. For myself, less trips to Vegas makes sense if I can play locally in better games without much heat.

Victoria

One More Try
Posted by SammyBoy on 25-Jan-2005 17:32:49 (#11916)

I'm planning a Vegas trip very soon. I actually kind of wish I were going to Tunica instead. I'm just hoping that I can find enough good games. I know I can find them in Mississippi, but the Mrs. is tired of going there.

Which one?
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Jan-2005 18:45:26 (#11919)

"I know of Indian Casinos where I can get a shoe game that is S-17, LSR, 5/6 pene"
----------------

Which one? zg

For obvious reasons
Posted by Victoria on 26-Jan-2005 00:09:53 (#11931)

send me an email at ros4144@yahoo.com and perhaps we can trade some info.

One thing, the pen is very dealer dependent but there are a few on each shift that offer good pen, the rest are all over the place.

Victoria

LV single deck with 3:2
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Jan-2005 10:54:00 (#11909)

These are the downtown locations with 3:2 on Single deck...

Golden Nugget has one or two tables
Four Queens has a table (I think...)
El Cortez
Western
Las Vegas Club

But, you won't beat any of these games for very much or very long...

WHAT A MISTAKE!!
Posted by EYEinTHEsky on 23-Jan-2005 16:29:35 (#11875)

AHhhhhh, Ive been viewing here for a long time now. Up until 2 days ago, I was a Supv. of a surveillance room, needless to say, I lost my job,,,now, I can use all of this great knowledge I learned, all the countless hours of training, paid for by my employer of course!!! Im sure they already put my picture in the books!!!!!!!

share?
Posted by BJack700 on 24-Jan-2005 07:56:25 (#11884)

would you be so kind as to share some info?

sharing ifo.. *LINK*
Posted by EYEinTHEsky on 29-Jan-2005 13:28:28 (#11974)

Sure, Ill share as much as I can, what do you wish to ask?????????

Welcome to the dark side.
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 24-Jan-2005 10:10:54 (#11885)

Were you like the James Caan character in the TV show Las Vegas? Just kidding. Sorry to hear about the forced change in career paths. Glad to see you step out of the shadows. Good luck with your new found knowledge.

Welcome EiTs!!!
Posted by SammyBoy on 24-Jan-2005 12:40:46 (#11887)

Sorry about your bad break. Which part of the country were you working in?

EITS, drop me a line...
Posted by zengrifter on 24-Jan-2005 16:18:19 (#11892)

... griftzen@yahoo.com

Where I worked *LINK*
Posted by EYEinTHEsky on 29-Jan-2005 13:27:15 (#11973)

I was working in Atlantic City, for a property that only has 3 other properties out in vegas. However, all of the higher ups in my dept. all came from vegas, so I got the best of both education I guess!!!! We'll see what happens, its hard to get a job in any other dept. now that I spent time in the "room"....

My LV Trip
Posted by Beginning Counter on 24-Jan-2005 12:49:06 (#11888)

So last week was my "big" LV counting adventure. I learned a lot and lost very little in the scheme of things. First, my results:

1/16/2005 2D H17 DAS Gold Coast $5 $70
55% Pen, kept good count, $5 tip

1/16/2005 6D H17 DAS Gold Coast $5 $12.50
65% Pen

1/17/2005 2D H17 DAS Gold Coast $5 $27
55% Pen

1/17/2005 2D H17 DAS Fiesta Henderson $5 $38
55% Pen $3 Tip

1/17/2005 2D H17 DAS Ellis Island $10 $75
70% Pen, $5 Tip

1/17/2005 2D H17 DAS Gold Coast $5 ($53)
Drinking

1/18/2005 2D H17 DAS Gold Coast $5 ($90)
Tired

1/18/2005 2D H17 DAS Palice Station $10 ($30)
70% Pen, Not enough Time

1/19/2005 2D H17 DAS Fiesta Henderson $5 ($76)
$4 Tip, Bad Mood

Total ($27)

I stayed at the Gold Coast for the 1st 2 nights and their game was not good. I saw a green chipper get backed off. The pen on 2 deck was 55% at best, in fact 1 dealer wouldn't even get to the cut card, but would shuffle up when she saw that the cut card would hit on the next round! We actually had a dealer at another casino who gave us info on the hole card when he checked his 10 up card. He told us to beat 18, that was great. Now I know that I was well withing standard deviation but I will point out something interesting. I lost 4 times. One was because there was not enough time, fair enough. One was drinking, yeah I know - lesson learned. One was tired and out of sorts and the last was in a bad mood after my first casino poker game. When my mood was off I was betting scared and held back on the betting ramp. I would also lose the count when in an off mood.

On Thursday I went to Death Valley and loved it!

So what have I learned? My guess is that more experienced players will all know these, but as I said before - lesson learned.

1> Don't drink while playing - duh!

2> Don't play tired, angry, or chasing a loss. Even if the loss was at a different game.

3> Be more choosey about games. There was no reason to play at the Gold Coast.

4> Trust the math! I was holding back on my ramp, especially when chasing a loss or in a bad mood. My plan was to bet 1 to 8, but I ended up doing 1 to 4.

5> I need to get a starting bankroll.

All in all my wallet did okay and I learned some good lessons. This was my first experience at double deck and I loved it. Unfotunately Atlantic City and Connecticut do no have double deck. So my practice is back at 6 deck. My plan is to work on a bankroll so that I can approach the game correctly. I also need to increase the length of my sessions. By the way, while in Vegas I picked up a copy of CBJN and their pen values matched what we found.

At the end of it all, I had a great time.

Congratulations...
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 24-Jan-2005 14:50:07 (#11889)

... on a successful first outing. You may also want to note that posting the dates of your trip may not be the best idea. Casino insiders could potentially piece together your trip (probably not a concern with your current betting levels).

You learned some good lessons. All of them very important. I would like to stress being choosey when it comes to game selection. Playing at full tables or with dealers giving bad penetration will kill your edge. I know it is difficult when you make a "special" trip to a place like Vegas. You don't want to get there and not play, but this is essential if the game is bad. Take the extra time initially to find a few good games and bounce between each, during different shifts. Do not overstay your welcome on any of the sittings. This is more easily done in areas where the casinos are within walking distance of each other.

Does anybody know...
Posted by zengrifter on 24-Jan-2005 18:01:31 (#11893)

... about this increased pene at Palace Station? I've been hearing conflicting reports. zg
-----------
1/18/2005 2D H17 DAS Palice Station $10 ($30)
70% Pen, Not enough Time
------------

strange answer
Posted by stainless steel rat on 24-Jan-2005 19:24:05 (#11894)

two people that work where I work went out to vegas about 3 weeks ago (different trips, different conferences, different weeks), both play BJ, both count. After I saw this post, on the way out of my building I ran into them and asked. One said he saw 70-75% pen the other said he saw 45-50%. At the same place. They looked at each other and got into an argument. Neither changed his story.

Moral of this story? No idea. Seems like it might be variable pen...

Nice report
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Jan-2005 08:01:41 (#11905)

Your (1)-(5) cannot be stated often enough. Thanks for sharing them with us. Playing while tired/drunk/upset, not ramping up fast enough, and not having enough of a bankroll is the 1-2-3 punch that makes losers out of winners.

Looking forward to your next report.

Snyder flails BJAP and slays GBV (aka John May) *LINK*
Posted by zengrifter on 24-Jan-2005 23:15:13 (#11901)

EXCERPT-
GBV: Many classic books on advantage play have serious fundamental errors.
Snyder: Case in point, your book[s], where you present yourself as a "professional gambler."
--------------------------------------
Re: GBV's defense of his endorsement of McDowell's book
posted by TheBish on 01-20-2005 20:18

I am replying to GBV’s post of 1/19 (Re: ETFan, MathBoy, Syph, Sohrab et al.) not primarily as a continuation of my review of McDowell’s book, but because I find GBV’s response to my review particularly dishonest. I think his response goes to the heart of what is going on with the endorsers of this unfortunate book, and so it needs a response.

...continued at link -

The numbers I got
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 24-Jan-2005 23:52:41 (#11902)

I tried to run the numbers myself on single-key ace sequencing a while back. In a 6 deck game, I got a number very similar to what I believe McDowell's was; around 13 per 100 or about double the probability of getting an ace at random on the first card only. Since only the first card is affected I declared this to be the equivalent of two extra aces per deck for the player only. Two extra aces per deck doesn't give you a 4% advantage but you're definitely in positive EV territory, and since these two virtual extra aces apply only to the player and not the dealer, it should drive the EV even higher. I reckoned about 2% in a 6D game, considerably less in an 8D game and considerably more in a 4D game, all this assuming you can find a dealer with a reasonably good riffle which I sure haven't been able to do. Requiring 50 to 60 aces per 100 to get 4% advantage I do not understand, because if getting an ace on yor first card gives you a 43% advantage (it's on bjmath.com), then getting an ace on your first card 50-60% of the time is going to give you a Christ of a lot more than 4%.

from an outsider looking in
Posted by stainless steel rat on 25-Jan-2005 10:22:09 (#11907)

There is a lot more to this than just aces and probability, IMHO. There are serious personality issues that I don't begin to understand, don't want to understand, and don't intend to ever try to understand. Best advice is to stand back far enough that you don't get hit with a wild punch.

I didn't understand the 60 aces per 100 math. Assuming a shoe of nothing but aces and 10s, you'd get an A the first card 50 of every 100 times. If BJ continues to pay 3:2, I'd play with that shoe and not bother counting. :)

Say Mayor...
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Jan-2005 20:50:13 (#11921)

...were you one of the "expert-endorsers" of BJAP? zg

Never claimed to be an expert
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Jan-2005 00:06:51 (#11930)

I never claimed to be an expert at S.T., and most certainly am not such.

To quote myself:

"... the information in this book was material I had always hoped to figure out myself some day. Here it all was, laid out in plain and easily understandable terms. The other side was that once out, casinos would take counter measures to insure that these techniques would no longer work. Such information is rarely made public."

I am in the process of figuring it out right now for myself for the single deck game (I wrote some C code)... I have a post that I may make soon that gives up a little of what I have been working on (or maybe not...).

There are precious few experts in S.T., and their most precious gems will *never* be put in a book.

Endorsements
Posted by Sun Runner on 26-Jan-2005 13:19:02 (#11942)

Never 'claimed to be an expert at ST'ing?' That's kind of lame ain't it?

to quote you quoting yourself:

What exactly did you expect the public to think when an implied well known blackjack authority like yourself writes words such as these? Let me tell you what most would think ...

- that you had finally found the (accurate) information you had been looking for

- that these techniques do work and are accurate; so much so casinos will now start defending against there play.

- that such (accurate) information is rarely made public (but now has been)

- that you had read the book, analyzed the book, and found it to be accurate.

So, is it an endorsement or isn't it? I'm not sure any longer!?

I would say that he was in good company...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Jan-2005 17:01:26 (#11948)

... IF John May and the sainted Robo hadn't also endorsed the thing. zg

PS- I bought BJAP (largely on the strength of...
Posted by zengrifter on 26-Jan-2005 17:03:30 (#11949)

... the Mayor's endorsement), but it was beyond my ability to utilize, so I gave it to Barfarkel. zg

A few things
Posted by Sun Runner on 26-Jan-2005 19:59:22 (#11957)

1. Thanks Mayor, for running my comment above as it wasn't directed positively toward you. I respect that. Much more than others on other sites have had the nuts to do.

2. I read the Mayor's full review and I read the language lifted from the review by the publisher and I am left with only one thought .. are you kidding me? The book buying public is getting screwed.

Arnold Snyder apparently really never meant to say all those nice things about Schlesinger's work for all those years .. the Mayor now says hey, I never SAID I was an expert.

Thanks guys.

3. I'm not a math geek (oh really) but I believe BJAP is a lot better than the folks at BJFOL are going to tell you it is but not nearly as good as the endorsers would lead you to believe it was.

Snyder does make an excellent point (no doubt he'll be thrilled to have me endorsing him) about using any advanced techniques like these and that is you had better practice your ass off and never put into play anything you are guessing at. Placing max bets at the wrong time will tear your head off.

4. I'm glad the Mayor and Norm are speaking again. Ain't life grand?!

blackjackforum online
Posted by mark on 25-Jan-2005 16:19:48 (#11914)

I saw a couple of systems on blackjackforum online gambline library with a
BC of 1.00.
1. 2-6= 2; 7= 1; 8= 0; 9= -1; 10-ace= -2

2. 2 and 7= 1; 3,4,and 6= 2; 5= 3; 8= 0; 9= -1; 10-ace= -2

3. 2,3,and7= 2; 4 and 6= 3; 5= 4; 8= 0; 9= -1; 10-ace= -3

how would I set up a playing matric and betting system?
thank you for any input.

Why?
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 25-Jan-2005 17:48:46 (#11917)

Why would you want to play any of those systems? Have you even tried Hi-low? To answer your question, CVData from qfit (www.qfit.com) can generate all the playing indices you would want as well as allow you to tinker with bet patterns to achieve optimal. You really should develop a better understanding of the game before you attempt to play advanced systems. When you do have a better understanding, you will realize that those systems are only academic and have no practical use.

Also. *LINK*
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 25-Jan-2005 18:27:59 (#11918)

The mayor has the indicies for one of your listed systems on this site. Click on the link below.

You should have read the article on bjf, it wasn't recommending any of the systems you listed. It was showing how powerful the Zen is.

Not quite academic
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 25-Jan-2005 19:51:31 (#11920)

The second one described is Halves, and there are quite a few very competent players who use it! The first one (-2,2,2,2,2,2,1,0,-1,-2) I don't know if it has a special name, but I call it "Higher-Lower" because you can double your High-Low indices and play them. But no good reason too as RPC outperforms it, if you want to use a level 2 count.

True
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 26-Jan-2005 10:14:46 (#11939)

Once I realized the mayor had one of those system's indices listed, I figured it must be a "real" system. But for all intensive purposes pertaining to mark's original question, I think he should not waste his time searching for the "ultimate" system with a BC of 1.0

thanks for the advice
Posted by mark on 26-Jan-2005 13:47:00 (#11944)

The Mayor said he used halves and that
is what I have been practicing with.
When I think it about it, it's kind of
silly to worry about a whopping .006%
for BC.
Thanks alot!

BJ Press Release
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Jan-2005 20:58:06 (#11923)

New Blackjack System to Beat the Casinos Revealed

Winning blackjack system revealed by professional card player Andrew Johnson.

(PRWEB) January 25, 2005 -- Professional blackjack player and strategy creator Andrew Johnson also known as AJ just launched his winning blackjack course at http://www.black-jack-secrets.com

He will be teaching how he has been making a fortune literally robbing the casinos legally for years playing blackjack without the use of the now famous card counting strategies which the casinos combat by banning professional players.

Blackjack has long been considered one of the few games where you, the gambler, can achieve an edge over the casino. For some reason the casinos seem to think that after you have mastered the game of blackjack that you, the honest gambler, needs to be penalized. There are very few blackjack players that have the ability and or desire to become a world class card counter. This select group of very few players now have to hide their identity in order to gamble at a casino, playing their favorite game, blackjack

Law-makers around the world are beginning to agree with casino executives that drastic measures are needed to prevent skilful players from beating the game of blackjack.

Blackjack was derived from the French game vingt-et-un or twenty-one. Until about the mid 1950's, it was believed that the game was a lot like baccarat and the house had the edge because the player played first.

In 1956, a paper was published by Baldwin, Cantey, Maisel, and McDermott in the "Journal of the American Statistical Association" laying out a set of recommendations for the play of the game, these recommendations were very close to today's basic strategy.

The following year, they published a manual for the public with this system of play, but it attracted little interest until, Edward O. Thorp(PhD), saw the paper and understood that there were parts of the game that had been missed in the past. The first being that the composition of the deck changed with each card dealt, also, some combinations of the remaining cards favoured the house and others favoured the players.

In 1962, Dr. Thorp published his now famous book, "Beat the Dealer", which contained a simple yet profound message that decks of cards have memory. Each hand is dependent on the makeup of the deck at that time and by paying attention to the cards already played, the player can almost predict what will be appearing in the deck next.

Andrew Johnson has been playing blackjack as a business for over 10 years. He holds blackjack seminars and schools around the world and January 24th he decided to reveal his personal winning system for beating blackjack.

The newly launched website is called at http://www.black-jack-secrets.com and anyone interested in knowing the insider secrets about the game of blackjack and how to profit from gambling should take a good look because AJ is a legend when it comes to professional blackjack!

Article by Bobby, Progamblingnews

"7 REASONS TO LEARN"
Posted by zengrifter on 25-Jan-2005 20:59:51 (#11924)

From BJ Secrets website -

7 REASONS TO LEARN
MY BLACKJACK SECRETS

1. Win more shoes day after day and skyrocket your blackjack earnings.

2. Guaranteed ways to lower the casino edge % without counting cards!

3. Shock the other blackjack players with these insider SECRETS.

4. Learn My WINNING blackjack system.

5. One month from today you can and will be playing blackjack fulltime!

6. Learn how to keep from losing your shirt and start winning shoes!

7. Gain a competitive edge with my insider BLACKJACK knowledge...

(A lot more secrets will be revealed)

*yawn* *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 25-Jan-2005 22:02:06 (#11926)

another great book...
Posted by stainless steel rat on 25-Jan-2005 22:26:52 (#11927)

Wife bought this book "casino gambling secrets" by Marten Jensen, at the recommendation of my sister-in-law. She bought it to learn more about other casino games besides slots and BJ.

Thought I would skim through it and I quickly ran across a "gem" that convinced me the book was going to be my next fire-starter in my fireplace.

section on roulette, betting systems, "a playable martingale".

He points out that if you play 8 rounds starting at $5, you can double up to 640 quickly and lose. 8 losses in a row can occur one in 170 spins according to him. To "cheat the system" he recommends picking a bet like red or black, and watching until it loses 3 consecutive times, then starting to bet on it. He says this is like a 11 round martingale where the first three losses had a bet of zero on them. He says you now have to lose 11 rounds in a row, which will only happen once every 1165 spins.

I thought I would puke when I read that. Why not wait for 10 or 15 consecutive red losses then bet on it as a sure thing?

jeez... I'm not even sure I want to use this in my fireplace...

Winning SHOES?!....
Posted by phantom007 on 26-Jan-2005 09:45:29 (#11938)

Several years ago, a Tunica store had the following promotion in their High Limit Room:

"Min. bet $100. Two Player BJ's in-a-row, i.e., consecutive, and you got a free Rolex, His or Hers, Player's choice."

Obviously, this was an off/on promotion (mostly off)....I personally never got to participate. I suspect this promotion got turned ON when a High-Roller was losing heavily....for example:

-----Dolphin (Small Whale): "Honey, I just lost everything at the BJ table. Tomorrow, we must leave our $750k mansion, and move in to the single-wide in the Trailer Park".

-----Wife: "YOU BASTARD! How could you do this to me?!?"

-----Dolphin: "But here is your FREE Ladies ROLEX!"

-----Wife: "Oh Honey, I LOVE YOU! Maybe I will get a job. We will make it somehow."

-----Dolphin: "Yes, we will. You know those of Nickles you keep in the dresser...can I have them? Little Green Men is overdue!"

Anyhow, FREE SHOES!.....I wear 11D. Where can I win Shoes?

phantom007.

2 Book Questions
Posted by Beginning Counter on 26-Jan-2005 08:29:06 (#11935)

A friend bought me Richard Harvey's "Cutting Edge Blackjack" as a gift. I haven't read it yet. Is there anything valuable in it?

Also, I saw that "Blackbelt in Blackjack" is back in print. Is it worth getting, other than for historical value?

By the way, picked up "The Blackjack Zone". All I can say is that I wish I had this when I first decided to play blackjack!

NO...BOTH...YES!
Posted by phantom007 on 26-Jan-2005 09:23:33 (#11937)

NO.....Harvey's book presents some interesting concepts, such as (paraphrasing) "Full tables are better because you get to see more cards"...all of his claims are based on "preliminary computer studies".

Let's see now, with Casino Verite' (sp?) software I can run something like 600M sims in about the same time that it takes to take a cr#p....my mind is SIMPLE, but it seems like he could have ran a few sims to verify his claims.

Have read most common and some uncommon BJ books in print, and several, several times each....only made it about 30 pages deep into Harvey's....had to be hospitalized for Bulemia! I do plan to finish it the next time I get serious about losing weight!

Just curious???....Is your friend a PC who wants you to play on his/her shift so that their "win #'s" look better???

BOTH....Snyder's work should be considered EXPERT, both for historical info. and current value. There have been some recent "flames" regarding A.S., does not really matter to me....kind of like Bobby Fisher in Chess...may be getting a little older, but I would not stand a chance in "heads-up" competition.

YES....Mayor's work is excellent, and anything he writes about AP and/or associated psychology should be taken seriously!

OTHERWISE....if you are a Beginner, may I also suggest Wong's "Professional Blackjack"....will need to read MULTIPLE times....after my first read of same, due to the "choppy" syntax, I ACTUALLY THOUGHT WONG WAS ORIENTAL! Personal prejudice, but my BJ Bible is Carlson's "BJ for Blood"....this goes with me EVERY casino trip, and usually, when I just go to work. Also strongly suggest
Karlin's "The Book That Casino Managers Fear The Most"...mostly psychology, but explains why us GAMBLER's feel good when we Win, AND WHEN WE LOSE!

Hope this helps.

Good cards.

phantom007.

I live in Las Vegas and................
Posted by Anthony on 26-Jan-2005 12:01:54 (#11940)

I live in Las Vegas, NV and love to play single deck BJ. However, to find a good game in town that doesn't have a 10 minimum, 6-5 pay outs on BJ, Super Fun 21, and I cann't continue to play at the small houses. Also, is Super Fun 21 a better game to play than single deck BJ 6-5 or single deck BJ 3-2.

Thanks for any help you can give!!!!!

Anthony

single decks
Posted by pooker101 on 26-Jan-2005 13:03:32 (#11941)

From what I've read. The best games would be 3/2 single, super fun 21 and avoid like the plague 6/5 single deck. I think I read here somewhere but my memory fails me that the wizard of odds has a basic strategy for super fun 21 thats effective and with a little searching you can find some indices for counting. I've also read somewhere think it was here but... that super fun 21 is beatable but you really need to have a huge bet spread think in the line of 20 or more units. The final thing is superfun 21 is still for the most part considered a carnival game by the pit so it has a lot less heat then say a 3/2 single deck. Mind you this is all hearsay and from memmory.

Single Deck
Posted by KennilworthKid on 26-Jan-2005 13:28:05 (#11943)

3-2 Single deck games are few in Vegas anymore. Northern Nevada (Tahoe, Reno, & Sparks) are where single deck is still offered in good numbers.

Superfun21, according to LVBear584, is not for the casual player and requires a significant amount of scouting to find an advantage situation.

I would read LVBear584 interview at this site, and do searches of his posts here and at bj21.com get some more info on your questions.

good luck, sorry I can not help more than that.

Most ANY game is better than 6:5......
Posted by phantom007 on 27-Jan-2005 09:15:51 (#11964)

well, maybe CSM's are worse, since the game goes much faster, you may lose at a higher rate even if rules make disadvantage somewhat less.

When ALL rules are the same, then the general desirability of games is something like:

---SD > DD > 6D > 8D > Single21 > SF21 >6:5 > CSM's....I left out Spanish21, which can be played for less -EV than CSM's, but requires much further study.

However, since rules are rarely the same, it is not uncommon to find, for example a "juicy" 6D opportunity is the same store that might offer Sh#tty DD rules/pen. Suggest CBJN as a cheap, reliable, and QUICK source of this kind of info.

If I were a LV Local, and especially for SD, I would strive for profit PLUS longevity! Specifically, instead of seeking $5-10. games and trying to disguise a wide spread through various methods, I would play $25-50. games, and spread 2:1, or quite likely 1.5:1 (especially when side-counting A's).

Most stores know than many, if not most "Regulars" at their BJ tables have read a "book-or-two". They also usually know that there ain't that many of us out there who are really good at it.

With lower spreads, you could fairly easily (grammar?) pull off a "double-up" act, or appear as a Novice CC who places Max. Bets at ANY + Count....and who just happens TO GET BJ 1/19th OF THE TIME!

phantom007.

a little confused by the math.
Posted by pooker101 on 26-Jan-2005 16:01:55 (#11945)

Okay so hypothetically ive practiced counting and I am decent. I've run the simulations and from that the math says I can expect to win $10 an hour. I'm in Vegas day 1 of a trip. My first day I plan to hit several casinos and play about 8 hours actually at the tables. So I should expect close to $80 for the day. Given Variance I think it would be fair to assume I would make between $40 and $120. So First Casino sit down and im extremely lucky in the first 30 mins im up $120. Now heres where im confused by the math. If I take the $10 an hour figure I could reasonabbly expect to continue my daily play and end up with another $75 grand total for the day would be $195. But if I look at this with my limited understanding of statistics. I would only have lets say a 15% expectation of finishing the day with more than $120 and a 70% expectation of finishing the day between $40 and $120. And a 15% expectation of walking away with less then $40. Now if I go by the $10 dollar an hour figure I sit at the table and continue to grind. If I go by the $40 to $120 figure I take a taxi to the local strip bar and enjoy the rest of my day in the company of pretty women. Can someone clarify what the correct move would be.

Variance is a much wilder beast!
Posted by Shaggy18VW on 26-Jan-2005 16:33:29 (#11946)

By the end of your life, you should expect to be around the $10 an hour rate. Just a ball park figure, but at the end of 8 hours of play it wouldn't be unreasonable to be up $1500 to down $1000. This is just off the cuff, but my guess is you could expect to be within this range 90% of the time for any 8 hour session.

Thanks but...
Posted by pooker101 on 26-Jan-2005 17:37:09 (#11951)

Thanks for your responses you have clarified for me how off on variance my understanding was.

But if I can I would like to ask again my original question.
Shaggy you wrote that any given day Icould expect a variance of between -1k and +1.5k
about 90% of the time. So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call it a day or should i continue to play. The way I see it only 10% of the time could I expect to walk away with more and 90% of the time I could expect to walk away with less.

Stainless you wrote a variance of -100 to +200 an hour. With those figures when you were up 1200 it seems you were way ahead of the expected variance beast and most likely if you played more you would go down in money. You ended the day up $700 Wouldnt it have been smarter to call it a day at $1200 and not expose yourself to any more scrutiny by the casino emotional turmoil of the variance roller coaster and fatigue from grinding? or by the math were your expectations that you would make more money and it was smarter to continue play.

Always keep playing - you might keep winning!
Posted by Sonny on 26-Jan-2005 19:34:52 (#11955)

> So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call
> it a day or should i continue to play.

You should continue playing. Here�s why:

If you quit playing, you will have won $1500 playing blackjack. Period. You will never get the chance to win any more than that in your lifetime. If you continue playing you are very likely to have several losing sessions, but you will have more opportunities to keep winning.

Scenario:

Two guys sit down at a blackjack table, each expecting to win $10 per hour. Both players win $1500 in 8 hours of play.

Player A is happy with his lucky win and decides to quit forever.

Player B plays for 150 more hours. Although Player B has some terrible losing sessions, he manages to reach his expectation after those 150 hours. He has now played a total of 158 hours for a win of $1580. Despite the fact that he �lost back� most of his lucky winnings from the beginning, he was able to win more than the player who quit right away.

Playing blackjack can be similar to having a regular job (assuming that your boss always pays you way too much, doesn�t pay you at all, and often steals from your wallet). The only way to continue making money is to work. The more hours you work the more money you can expect to earn. The more you work the more likely you are to reach your expected wage. Positive variance can be good, but a serious player is more concerned with continuing to win more money for as long as they can. Would you quit your job and retire just because your boss gave you an extra big holiday bonus?

At least that�s how I think about it.

-Sonny-

You have mythological thinking
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Jan-2005 19:45:33 (#11956)

>So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call it a day or should i continue to play.

Your odds in the future do not change based on what has happened in the past. You have the same odds after each deck is shuffled and begun. Play if you are rested or have the bankroll. Just because you have won a certain amount does not preclude winning more. Likewise for losing.

Did you buy my book? I explain this in great detail in Part 3. I've got a copy right here with your name on it...

-Mayor

thanks
Posted by pooker101 on 26-Jan-2005 21:00:19 (#11960)

Thanks this answers it I think. Ive always had a problem reconciling theese two things but what I think I'm hearing is that trust the 1.5% grind forever part, the
expectation is just that expectation a yardstick of kinda what to expect. As for the book as soon as I come into money its on my list of things to buy.

do not make that mistake!
Posted by stainless steel rat on 26-Jan-2005 20:08:54 (#11958)

You said I could have walked away ahead. It doesn't work like that. For example, if I play 400 hands in a row, and end up +1000 bucks, I could stop and the first session tomorrow might see me lose $1000. Or if I continued playing today I could lose that same $1000. You can't "quit ahead" today and bank that profit. Because you don't start over tomorrow. Your playing time is one long string of shoes that are not related.

That is dangerous thinking, believing you might outwit the goddess of luck. :) She's always there, always ready to press the red button and start a long negative swing, or on occasion, she punches the green button and you have a long positive swing. But whether you play 2000 hands in a day, or 200 hands a day for 10 days, your expected results will be _exactly_ the same..

if your EV is $20 per hour, over the long haul you are going to make $20 per hour. Some days it will be way over, some days it will be way under. But over the long haul, it's going to be $20... you have to trust the math and play the game according to your count and bet schedule...

one more point.
Posted by stainless steel rat on 26-Jan-2005 20:10:26 (#11959)

I didn't play 4 hours in one casino. I use a "one hour rule" unless I am playing a shoe game for fun with family or something. When I play "serious BJ" you'll never see me at a table for over an hour, win lose or draw...

Very astute observation
Posted by Automatic Monkey on 26-Jan-2005 21:48:09 (#11962)

"Wouldnt it have been smarter to call it a day at $1200 and not expose yourself to any more scrutiny by the casino emotional turmoil of the variance roller coaster and fatigue from grinding? or by the math were your expectations that you would make more money and it was smarter to continue play."

That's quite amazing that you'd realize this without being an experienced player. Yes, what everyone here is saying is correct about one shoe not affecting the next (first approximation) and that past performance is no indicator of future results, BUT...

You are not a computer, and the casino is not the RAM inside your computer. You do have emotions (although you must learn to control these somewhat) and you are subject to fatigue. Making mistakes in any human endeavor due to fatigue is like having bad breath- you will be the last one to know. You just have to assume that after 6-20 hours of play your efficiency will go down and there's nothing you can do about it but sleep. And it is true that having an extraordinary winning night could attract unwanted attention and detract from your ability to play in the future, but this is a hard judgment call that only a lot of experience will be able to tell you how to handle.

more..
Posted by stainless steel rat on 26-Jan-2005 23:40:52 (#11963)

I may have done a poor job of explaining that up/down swing. It was over (I believe, I don't have my log here by me) four playing sessions of no more than one hour each, not at the same table/pit, and except for two of the four sessions not at the same casino. I subscribe to the idea of "hit and run" even at reasonably low stakes. Keeps attention down. Keeps recognition down. Even on the MS coast I can play two dozen 1 hour sessions without being seen more than once per day for an hour or less at any one table/casino...

May be a bit of "overkill" but since I want to keep playing down there due to the proximity to where I live, I'll be more cautious...

more like
Posted by stainless steel rat on 26-Jan-2005 16:36:50 (#11947)

-100 to +200. Variance can be wild. _very wild_. I have seen wild runs up and down. For example, in one day, playing DD at 4 different tables, I started at $1000, reached over +2200, dropped to $800, and finished at +1700. Had I been done after the first session, I was well off. After the second I was toast. After the third, I was again ahead. That kind of roller-coaster is not just normal, it is a given.

Strip Bar gets my Vote!.......
Posted by phantom007 on 27-Jan-2005 09:34:43 (#11965)

May I propose that you play in DT-LV, therefore you can walk to the Strip Bar, thus cutting expenses, increasing EV, and decreasing Variance.

During my last LV trip, I saw a billboard advertising something like "Our Strippers come to your hotel room!"

For my next LV trip, trying to figure out how to get my walnut kitchen table shipped to my room while I am there. It needs refinished. Maybe they can strip it while I am at the tables.

ph007.

How could you be mad at a winner?????
Posted by Anthony on 27-Jan-2005 10:31:50 (#11966)

How could you be mad at a winner?????

FOR A LOCAL

You're up fifteen hundred dollars. You walk out the door go home see the familly have a nice dinner and watch some movies. Of course you would like to win a million dollars!!! The sun will go down and the next day when the sun comes up again it will be a new day, a new session, a bankroll with some of the winnings from the day before and some money spent on (hopefully) important things. Remember, your phyical condition i.e. tired, drunk, in a bad mood, or been playing a long time all have BIG effects on your decisions.

FOR THE PERSON OUT OF TOWN

You know that you're only in town for so long; Therefore, you can mathematically only play so long. Then maybe it's better to continue playing, but remember that just as easy you go up, you can go down. Also, are you on the trip because your down to your last 1,500 and you owe the mob 10,000 rents due, and your wife is being a pain in your ass!!! Or, you're worth millions and the 1,500 doesn't make a difference in your life then have fun and play, but don't forget about the swings.

To put it in short: You just have to go with your heart

My "review" of BJAP
Posted by The Mayor on 26-Jan-2005 19:14:55 (#11954)

Because there has been some questions raised about the review process, I have decided to post my full review of BJAP as sent to the publisher, from April 2004. As you can see, I did not catch the 6% error.

=======================================================================

Blackjack Ace Prediction: The art of advanced location strategies for the casino game of twenty-one!

David McDowell

Reviewed by:

Eliot Jacobson
04/27/2004

Within moments of opening this book for review, I was overwhelmed by two conflicting sentiments, both expressed by the same words: �Oh my god, he�s giving away the secrets!�

On the one hand, the information in this book was material I had always hoped to figure out myself some day. Here it all was, laid out in plain and easily understandable terms. The other side was that once out, casinos would take counter measures to insure that these techniques would no longer work. Such information is rarely made public.

Unfortunately, as the book played out, not many secrets were given away. Indeed, the day after finishing the text, I know two more things than I knew before beginning. One secret is that on a 2-riffle R&R shuffle, the expected number of cards between a key card and the ace that follows is three. The second secret is that if one finds such a shuffle, one can generate and expected edge of about 6% over the house. To a card counter or shuffle tracker this looks great, and it is. To a more sophisticated advantage player, this is yet another weapon in an already huge arsenal.

What were the other �secrets?�

The author did a careful shuffle-tracking study of the step-ladder shuffle and two-pass combo shuffle, and demonstrated that in certain exceptional circumstances, this knowledge could be used to track ace slugs. He also presented a careful study of the 2-riffle R&R shuffle. However, this shuffle is easy to predict so there is hardly anything new to offer here.

The author also provided some well known information about the Bee playing deck and the asymmetry of its design (but this is well-worth restating). He did not mention that if one used a cutting device to mark the edge of the ace, then tracking becomes very easy. I think a section on this and other illegal methods is worthy of note in such a book.

The author provided detailed statistical studies that were interesting and accurate, but difficult to read at parts. I never quite know what to do with the huge amounts of such information the experts generate. How does it translate into action at the tables? That�s the only question that matters, and without this answer, the data just hangs there.

One note on technical writing: the author did not seem to have a background in writing m

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