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Threads 91 to 120

Boundary cases I: min spread for 1 EV?
Posted by Kurt M. Rufa on 13-Nov-2002 00:39:40 (#602)

Hi, folks. This seems to be a perfectly lovely board and site, and I hope to be gaining the benefit of reading discussions here for a long time to come.

This may be a faq-y type of question--if so, please hook me up.

First, goals, philosophy, longwindedness:

I don't see myself ever betting much more than red-chips because the mechanics of what's going on is more interesting to me than the volume.

I'm not interested so much in counting so much to make money but rather as a technique to reduce the cost of sitting at a blackjack table. I figure that at $5 flat bet, 100 hands an hour, the $500 of action at (say) a half a percent costs $2.50. Canon on tipping as dealt on this site is $4/hr.

Now, $6.50/hr for entertainment isn't bad, and for the $2/hr in cocktail waitress one actually gets refreshing beverages, so my area of interest is in the $2.50/hour given to the casino, and the $2/hour sent the way of the dealer. I figure that my presence in the casino is relatively little marginal cost for them if I behave myself . This is important to me apropos enjoyment and relaxation. I want to be knowing in my heart that I'm completely blameless of 'abusing' them any more than someone going into a mall to window shop who buys nothing is cheating the mall.

I'm in the casino to purchase volatility with small amounts of money in a fun environment. I just don't want to pay nearly as much as they want to charge me for it.

Also, I like craps, I find craps fun, and I know full well I'm losing 7 cents when I put $5 on 'pass'. At the pinnacle of things, I'd like 2-3 hours of slight-advantage blackjack to offset an hour or so of slightly too large disadvantage craps. (Moreover, at craps I can enjoy a wider array of refreshing beverages, because I'd have to be fairly trashed not to properly bet pass, max odds, and be sure I got paid.)

So, there are a few tiers to my goals:

1) getting rid of the $2.50/hour (playing an even game)
2) getting inflow of $2/hr (tipping the dealer)
3) getting inflow of $3.50/hr (tipping the dealer and a little to buy some more relaxed, less
intellectual volatility at the craps table)

I have absolutely no illusions that I'm close to getting to any of these levels right now, but
I imagine knowing where one's headed is a good first step. Possibly more important is the notion that I'm probably not likely to be playing super-regularly - why go to all the trouble for these theoretical considerations when over my lifetime they may well be swamped by variance? (time to dig out the Chi-squared test? How many hands would it take to have 95% confidence that a time series is a result of playing at 0.1% advantage rather than minus 0.4?)

Well, I'd like to play the game as well as I know how, and in my case playing it as well as I know how is more measured by *engineering the random process* than by *maximizing the EV*. I figure most serious people do this kinda thing to some extent anyway (by Kelly betting or whatever).

Right now I'm learning basic strategy for ye olde 6 deck shoe game (RSA, DOA, DAS) that they have in Detroit (it's either that or csm, apparently, and green minimum most of the time too according to a counting ex-officemate :( )

Second: The main question on my mind now

On this kind of 6 deck shoe game, what is the *minimum* spread necessary to overcome the house edge, (assuming no getting up to check the bathroom whenever the count gets very bad (wonging out?)).

I really don't want to have to worry about being noticed, for various reasons, and staying in the basement with red chips seems the best way to do it. I realize the answer is going to depend on the counting system picked, too. Having read an article in the book (a collection of papers) called _Finding the Edge_, I have gained the impression that for most systems the spread is responsible for maybe 70% of the deviation in EV, and basic strategy variations the rest.

So, what kind of ballpark for the spread is needed to meet my (relatively modest) goal? What tradeoffs for counting systems and BS variations are available?

I've got a lot of other questions but the road of clue acquisition is long and twisty, with routes best plotted in real time... so I'll leave it for now at just this one.

Greetings, Kurt
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Nov-2002 09:27:23 (#604)

Welcome to this board, I hope your questions will be answered by others, but I'll take a first stab.

You posed a very interesting question, "what is the minimum spread necessary to be playing an even game."

Let me begin by saying that this is a bad idea. As long as you are simply playing a break-even game, gambler's ruin is sure to wipe you out. You must play with an edge to avoid gambler's ruin. That said, if you play with the smallest of edges then even a huge bankroll will not avert gambler's ruin. You need a decent bankroll, a decent edge, and a "risk" of losing it all that you are comfortable taking. Only then can your spread be determined theoretically. And the spread will say something like "if you spread x-y then your hourly earnings are EV with a standard deviation of SD, giving you a risk-of-ruin on your bankroll of BR of ROR%"

Also let me say, that for red-chippers on a shoe game, if you spread $5 to $20, no one will even look at you. You can do it forever, and this spread certainly gives you a very slight edge. But if you "wong" (only enter shoes at a positive count +1 or higher), then you can simply flat bet and be playing with an edge! If you "wong-out" (always leave shoes that go below -1 in TC) then you can play a 2-1 spread and have an edge. These are the minimums, in my opinion, without doing the mathematics to verify them.

Again, nice to see you here,

--Mayor

Re: Greetings, Kurt
Posted by Kurt M. Rufa on 13-Nov-2002 15:21:29 (#610)

I do know about gambler's ruin. Random walks on a 1D lattice are recurrent, which is why... on 2D, as well, but just barely. 3D ones are not. So if you're a drunken bear you eventually will get back home, but a drunken bird is lost forever.

I'm a continuous kind of guy, so I'd write it as a PDE; something like u_t = K u_xx + R with initial condition u0(x) = delta(bankroll) and boundary condition u(0) = 0. For R zero, sure, L1 norm of U = 0 as time goes to infinity... I'm not precisely sure how to set K and R in the right units, but I'm quite sure that the solution to a PDE like this'll give the right continuous approximation of the discrete random walk. It'd be fun to figure out the proper way to model blackjack outcomes with PDEs (if possible); I do know that in a lot of similar situations this is faster and more accurate than Monte Carlo methods (simulation).

But just as one can think of one's BJ playing as one continuous session, I can think of my bankroll as not being one fixed number. I'm not in this to make money, or have a vanishingly small risk of ruin in the long run, because in the long run I'm dead anyway. Another way to reframe my point of view is that I'm more interested in minimal volatility in the short term (smaller spread, I'd imagine) without negative drift.

It is heartening to hear that 1-4 spreads aren't considered a threat. To expand my question, I wonHow well can one do with basic strategy variations alone? I'm sure that's come up, in light of Atlantic City...

Basic Strategy alone
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Nov-2002 09:49:50 (#639)

In Single Deck, you can get a marginally winning game by varying strategy alone. But in multi-deck games, strategy variations are a very small part of the game and will not bring you up to an even keel. Best to test the waters by spreading as much as you can until you start to feel the heat. Spreading is where the money is -- everything else is just fluff.

I appreciate your strong mathematics background, and encourage you to seek your answers to your purely mathematical questions at bjmath.com -- the world's top BJ theoreticians are waiting to answer you there.

Best regards,

--Mayor

Single Deck - Doubling A,8 V 6?
Posted by SammyBoy on 13-Nov-2002 09:01:58 (#603)

I did this the other night at a local casino and the dealer pointed out to me that I had a 19 and was I sure that I really wanted to do that. I said yes, she looked at me like I was stupid and then dealt the card. I ended up with an 8 for a total of 17 and she ended up making 18. Does anyone know the EV of standing versus doubling? Thanks.

Re: Single Deck - Doubling A,8 V 6?
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Nov-2002 09:29:20 (#605)

For a single deck, H17 game:

standing on A-8 vs. 6 earns .446 units for each unit bet.
doubling on A-8 vs. 6 earns .466 units for each unit bet.

Thus you are giving up .020 units, or 20 cents on your $10 bet
by not doubling.

...the cost of cover...

--Mayor

Re: Single Deck - Doubling A,8 V 6?
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 13-Nov-2002 09:31:41 (#606)

In H17 SD game, double A,8 vs 6 is basic strategy. When the dealer gave you the stupid look, you could have said "Don't you even know the basic strategy for the game you deal?" LOL!

The EV is:
A,8 vs 6 stand .447
A,8 vs 6 double .466

If you are lucky enough to be playing a S17 single deck game, double is the correct move if the count is positive. (In fact, if you only double this hand in positive counts in the H17 game, you are better off.)

Rational for my response.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 13-Nov-2002 09:36:28 (#607)

You have a dealer working against you. She is questioning the plays you make. You want a dealer to deal the cards, not second guess and call attention to you sometimes not making the 'correct' ploppy play. Especially in single deck where a lot of play variations are made.

Sometimes a smart remark at the beginning of a session lets a dealer know, "Keep your mouth shut and deal" and you don't have to be yelling "Checks Play" real loud if you want tips.

Re: Single Deck - Doubling A,8 V 6?
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Nov-2002 09:46:48 (#608)

You said something very interesting -- that one should only double A,8 v. 6 in positive counts. I want to second this.

The point is that while this move generates a little more EV, it definitely adds a lot to your SD. Thus, what we want is to wait until we get a little more EV, thus reducing the ration EV/SD to a manageable quotient. This is what we really want in life. For example, a job with a steady paycheck has a SD=0, so the ratio is infinitely positive. That is the best source of income. The more SD you have with respect to your EV, the larger the bankroll you need and the wilder will be the fluctations.

This concept generates what are known as "Risk Adverse Indices" -- meaning one should make the play not just when the EV says to, but rather wait until the ratio of EV/SD says to.

--Mayor

Re: Single Deck - Doubling A,8 V 6?
Posted by SammyBoy on 13-Nov-2002 10:36:00 (#609)

Thanks for the replies! The game is S17 and the cut card is placed anywhere from 50% to 60% deep. They've always dealt 2 rounds to a full table (7 players), I've had 3 rounds dealt a few times with 5 players, but of course it only happens in negative counts. It was tough to get a seat the first few times I went, but I believe most of the ploppies have moved back to the 6 deck shoes. Too much shuffling for them I guess. I've been able to spread 1 to 4 with no heat. I made a few cover plays each session the first few times I played there (when pc's were watching), but do not anymore. I will continue to play there in short durations until I get that tap on the shoulder. There are 2 other places nearby that have single deck, but one has a $25 min and I don't know about the other. I don't have the bankroll (yet) to play quarters.

Another question on LVAdvisor
Posted by Count Luckula on 13-Nov-2002 15:21:30 (#611)

I just joined the LVA (full membership) and I am going to try to take advantage of the free night at the Stardust in the near future. I am wondering how I should go about another membership. Somebody suggested to just get the online membership for the 2nd membership. Also, if I decided to get an additional membership, does this present any problem with getting two free nights at the Stardust. My plan is to go with a friend who will also be a LVA member and we alternate free nights. Has anyone tried this?

Re: Another question on LVAdvisor
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 13-Nov-2002 15:55:20 (#612)

"I just joined the LVA (full membership) and I am going to try to take advantage of the free night at the Stardust in the near future. I am wondering how I should go about another membership. Somebody suggested to just get the online membership for the 2nd membership. Also, if I decided to get an additional membership, does this present any problem with getting two free nights at the Stardust. My plan is to go with a friend who will also be a LVA member and we alternate free nights. Has anyone tried this?"

I haven't tried this yet, but I have stayed at the Dust. Last time I was there it was in the tower. Previous to that they used to shell out their stacked motel rooms for free. Knocked down now. I think you should have no problem as long as you book the rooms separately under different names. Also use the BJ coupies that offer better BJ pay-offs while in town. I think I will order one myself and see if I can get them "counter" fitted....wink

Another Single Deck Question
Posted by SammyBoy on 13-Nov-2002 16:02:21 (#613)

Lets say all 4 aces come out on the first round. The running count is lets say 3 with a little more than half the deck remaining giving us a true count of about 5. Is it worth playing the next round? At what count would it not be worth playing with no aces remaining? Thanks.

Re: Another Single Deck Question
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 13-Nov-2002 16:09:48 (#615)

With no aces left, keep playing if you have a true count of +3 or more.

With a high positive count, yet -4 in Aces having been played, there are a lot of Ts left in the deck. An 11 or 10 would be a nice hand for a double down.

Re: Another Single Deck Question
Posted by SammyBoy on 13-Nov-2002 16:23:47 (#616)

Thank you!

Re: Another Single Deck Question
Posted by phantom007 on 16-Nov-2002 03:27:50 (#652)

Though with all of the A's gone in this SD game, many would suggest avoiding your maximum bet, since the absent A's will have a -8 effect on the Count for betting purposes.

Better Count to Use in 1D,2D
Posted by branmuffin on 13-Nov-2002 22:15:28 (#618)

On Casino Verite's SCORE calculator:Poor/Fair SD H17 Spread 1-4 ..the last count type is
HiOptII full for playing,RPC for betting.
What is RPC..I assume running point count but dont know.
and If you want to find more info. on HiOptII ..is it possible without buying HO2 for 40 bucks or whatever it is.

If some one knows this count can you tell me how RPC adds to EV?I know it does not add much ..just curious.

I am preparing for playing SD in MISS. I know HiLo and will use that in good multi-deck games but I am thinking about using a different count for SD and DD for better Playing Efficiency.

I got my choices down to Halves full indexes,AO2 full indexes w/ace side count or lastly HiOpt2 w/full indexes and ace side counts(or without ace side counts ..still very high SCORE )

Is the added difficulty of an ace side count worth the trouble .Any other thoughts on comparing the practicality and playability of these 3 systems.
Thnx for any help
Lee

Re: Better Count to Use in 1D,2D
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 14-Nov-2002 09:32:21 (#621)

RPC stand for Revere Point Count. See the book, "Playing Blackjack as A Business" by Revere, for particulars.

The tag values are:
-2 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2

How you would use this count in conjunction with Hi-OptII
0 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 -2
using only one brain is beyond me.

I would suggest that the Hi-OptII playing / RPC for betting selection is only there for theoretical purposes.
The Hi-OptII count is the highest two-level playing eff. count, while RPC is the highest two-level betting corr. count.

As far as your asking for advice on using different counts for different games (and using full indices),
all I can say is, "GOOD LUCK".

Quick what is the index for
T,4 vs A
A,5 vs 3
here is an easy one: T,3 vs 3

Please give your answers using HiLo S17 multideck and whatever other count you choose from to play SD H17.
Remember you have about 2 seconds to give your answers, the dealer is waiting. (Also, you did remember to add that Ace at 3rd base into your sidecount -- didn't you?)

In other words, it is much, much, much better to do something simple very, very well. As opposed to doing something complicated half-assed (with a marginal gain). Directing your energies towards cover, and your appearance and act in the casino, so you are actually able to play, will have much longer term benefits, than getting .035% more playing effiency over the next 15 hours of playing single deck.

dumbest question ever
Posted by pal on 14-Nov-2002 01:11:25 (#619)

I just got back from my second trip to the casino, first playing basic strategy. For 8D, LS, DOA, S17 what do you do with 8,8 vs 10. this happened a few times, i split, but should I have surrendered?

Re: dumbest question ever--__PW_FORM_DATA_BOUNDARY
Posted by Crazyhandleman--__PW_FORM_DATA_BOUNDARY__ on 14-Nov-2002 06:38:49 (#620)

ummm..the book I have says if double down is allowed after splitting then you should always split. If double down is not allowed, then only split a 8,8 v 10 when TC is < +5 . How'd you do at the casino by the way?
--__PW_FORM_DATA_BOUNDARY__

Re: dumbest question ever
Posted by darksun on 14-Nov-2002 13:48:11 (#622)

yeah I am confused on this one, what is the "order of operations" so to speak...does the pair splitting chart that tells you to always split 8's have more precedence over the hard count chart that says surrender 16 vs 10.

-darksun

Re: dumbest question ever
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 14-Nov-2002 14:34:48 (#623)

Yes. You really don't have 16, you have two 8s. Split them.

Of course, the difference in EV between splitting them, or playing them as 16 and surrendering, is so small that over your lifetime you will earn enough to buy a Big Mac w/fries on making the 'correct' play.

Re: dumbest question ever
Posted by learning to count on 14-Nov-2002 16:17:55 (#624)

Great question actually. You always split them. If you hit them as sixteen you will lose more than splitting them. Also the theory that goes with the stats on this one says you take a breaking a hand of sixteen and create more chances of creating a strong hand pat hands or a chance to double on ten or eleven if you get a two or three. So split em like a log! The ability to splt eights into a better hand also out weighs surrendering them as a sixteen. Split Split split!

Re: dumbest question ever
Posted by SplitFives on 14-Nov-2002 17:54:11 (#627)

Split those eights.

This is one of those questions that arise only when I'm playing or dreaming about playing, and make me feel stupid for not instinctively knowing the answer.
Usually I don't think of 8-8 as being 16, anyway, so surrender would not creep into my brain.

If I split the eights, I avoid the 16 situation entirely, so surrender isn't an issue. The hand really isn't a 16 at all.

It's better to avoid thinking of pairs as hard hands. 8-8 differs completely from hard 16 -- it's another sort of animal.

These kinds of questions are welcome here, in my opinion.

A question of intent.
Posted by Hinoon on 14-Nov-2002 16:21:13 (#625)

Hi...I've been lurking for a few weeks. I feel very lucky to have stumbled upon this community. A little bit about myself; I'm not a Math Prof., I never studied logic or statistics. My brother bit off that end of the genetics-stick. I do however have a passion for bj. I understand basic strategy, and enjoy the process (even through the losses). I'm not quite at the rote-recitation level yet.

Obviously, I'm the guy that you guys are NOT; the ploppie (new term for me) who thinks he knows something. But I'm doing my best to be an educated player. That said, I'm not going to be a "lifer". I've got a decent desk job and it pays the rent. I can have Grifter fantasies till my eyes bleed though :) .

Now, I've done a lot of reading, and up until I found this place, it seemed to me that the counters were playing for comps. They were keeping a low profile, making intentional mistakes, trying to play as few hands per hour as possible in order to abuse the casino's built in comp-schedule. Live like a fat cat in a comped suite, and eat free lobster. The goal was to break even and play 9 hours at a table. Everything I read said, even counting, you can't make money at BJ unless you have a single deck with good rules, and those don't exist anymore. And even if you could make money...you wouldn't want to cause you'd get barred.

But now I find a group of people who, for what ever reason, sound smart and serious, and who don't advocate that kind of playing at all. The story I'm hearing here is that comps are secondary, table play should be limited to one hour blocks, and that basic strategy alone is a losing game.

and the trouble is...I believe it.

So...where does this leave the fellow like me? I make it to Vegas once a month if I can...I don't like California casinos because the nearest one to me plays 22 (!!) instead of 21. Are the two strategies simply a question of intent? A measure of dedication to the Game? Or can I, the weekender, utilize the theories and strategies here to my advantage?

Thanks all for the great info, particularly Mayor. Great articles/essays/examples.

Cheers

Re: A question of intent.
Posted by learning to count on 14-Nov-2002 17:23:27 (#626)

All the great counters were ploppies at one time or another. Memorize basic strategy until it is instinct. Learn a count. I would suggest KO Blackjack because it is simple. Read Read Read. And play play play low stakes at first and then move up. Keep asking questions and communicate. It will come. If you continue to play BJ and lose then you are a ploppy. If you improve your self by leraning basic strategy you are a BS player and when you learn to count you become an advantage player. This is evolution. Take advantage of the advantage. LTC

Re: A question of intent.
Posted by Hinoon on 14-Nov-2002 19:33:45 (#632)

Seems like I'm a BS player at this stage then.

I typically break even, with most of my outings to Vegas leaving me up by a handful of units. Of course, understanding a bit of the statistics...I don't really chalk that up to skill, but rather to the fact that I'm "playing the game" correctly.

Re: A question of intent.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 15-Nov-2002 08:50:53 (#636)

If you are going to Las Vegas once a month, then you are certainly playing enough for counting to be profitable to you. Think of it as a hobby that pays you very well. Also, with such frequent trips, and armed with some knowledge, you can seek out some of the excellent games offered in Vegas.

Greetings
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Nov-2002 09:54:32 (#640)

I really love this comment in your post:

"and the trouble is...I believe it."

Yes, believe it! Single deck is a nearly impossible game to beat, the pit watches it so closely and there are only a couple of venues that you quickly burn out. If you want to play A LOT of blackjack, you have to go to multi-deck games. The great thing is, they are easier to beat that Single Deck!

For example, if you play the great shoe games in Vegas, you can wait in the wings until the shoe is in your favor, thus having the luxury of only making bets when the odds are in your favor! Tell me, is that great, or what?

The strongest teams, the strongest players, the shuffle trackers, the sequencers, all attack the shoes.

But for a pure thrill ride, there's nothing like a few hours of single deck 8-)

--Mayor

Re: Greetings
Posted by Hinoon on 15-Nov-2002 12:36:39 (#643)

Most of all, I think I enjoy the sheer amount that there is to learn about this game. You can play craps or roulette any way you want, but past learning the fundamentals, nothing will give you any increase in advantage. With Blackjack, I'm always improving, always learning.

I'd love a simple breakdown of the most common phrases/strategies that are employed. (As if you don't have enough to do already). I don't have access to the books yet, so it's taken me a bit of time to figure out what people mean when they talk about Wonging. (that's leaving or entering a table depending on the count, right?) No need to go into detail...just an overview.

Now, as for multi-deck shoes being advantageous because you can enter at a high count....wouldn't watching a game without betting draw heat? I've gotten a friendly, "move along or put money on the table." at a $3 table after watching a friend play for two minutes. I suppose that's where the MIT system comes into play.

OK, enough thinking out loud for now, since all of this is probably old hat and obvious to the vast majority out there.

cheers.

Re: Greetings
Posted by Theef on 15-Nov-2002 15:14:10 (#649)

This is new and very interesting to me. I knew single deck was not generally an option for serious players, but I had thought that double deck, not the shoe, was de rigeur instead. I imagined pros only resorted to shoes when they absolutely had to, for instance, when they were burning out even the double deck. I thought a six deck player, even with "Schlesinger-perfect Wonging" (a term I just made up to denote the optimal Wonging technique described in BJA), couldn't get the SCORE of a play-all 1-12 double deck player.

I suppose if you have a huge bankroll (or team bankroll) you can make bets at shoe games that exceed what you could get away with at double deck, and you can make up for the SCORE deficit that way. Is that what you meant? Or does your advice apply to green chippers and below as well?

Re: A question of intent.
Posted by Slowhand on 15-Nov-2002 13:39:48 (#644)

You will find players out there who follow both philosophies, depending on their intent. Personally, I started out as you did, trying to decide which was the current more valid approach. The answer is to use the one that works best for your situation. I now play both at the green and at the black tables, depending on what casino I am in, and what my mood is. I take every comp I can get, and now usually stay and eat for free. Many other players prefer to remain unknown, playing short sessions and never using a players card. You will find a wealth of insight and opinion on this site and other bj sites that will help you tailor your approach.
Good Luck
Slowhand

Significant Other and BlackJack
Posted by darksun on 14-Nov-2002 18:11:26 (#628)

So I count through a deck for about 30 mins a day, play hands on my computer at work for about an hour a day, probably less. I love Blackjack because it reveals little suprises to me the more a learn about it. Blackjack is the only hobby that has really caught my attention since my interest in computers caught my attention 7 years ago.

And what do I get- a girlfriend who calls me obsessive.

i find a great hobby and the verbal fists start flying.

"when is this little obsession of yours going to stop?"
"so are you going to blow our life savings someday when we are married?"

"i'm not addicted, it's a fun hobby" - "see, you are in denial"

oh man...I try to explain to her the philosophy of card counting. If you are going to play, play right, gain the edge in the long run.

Has anyone encountered this? Do I need to dodge the bullet or what?

-darksun

Re: Significant Other and BlackJack
Posted by learning to count on 14-Nov-2002 18:47:44 (#630)

Get a new woman friend. When you start making headway in this game the chicks will be impressed at the tables. Money is a female attractant. She should be happy with you learning a positive art. All kidding aside card counting is a tough business and so is having a girlfriend, wife, or a full family. All I can say I being a veteran of the marriage wars is that if she does not accept your life, lock stock and barrel then you may have to make a choice. Her or the gamblers life. Some guys are lucky they have women who stand or sit next to them at the tables. LTC

The funny thing is...
Posted by darksun on 14-Nov-2002 19:09:47 (#631)

so she calls me obsessive....

we go on this cruise and she is the one with her eyes bugging out as she drops 115 bucks into the slots and checks the machine for lost quarters.

I lose 4 units. =P

Re: The funny thing is...
Posted by learning to count on 14-Nov-2002 21:37:42 (#633)

I have a small group or team if you must name it. Our number one rule is no non-players on a trip. No female distractions either. We dont bring our girlfirends with us. Experience has taught us that a complaining attention seeking female will cause dissention in the group fast. Now during our off party hours if a member needs to get a female fix he's on his own. Any way an old gambler told me if you cant find a woman in vegas then hell drive to Pahrump. You sound like you want to get serious with this count thing. Make the decision. Good luck. Oh yeah hey you were on a romantic cruise so maybe you are the one that is wrong on this one. You obviously invited her on the cruise so you have to take the good with the bad. LTC

Re: Significant Other and BlackJack
Posted by Reddevil on 15-Nov-2002 00:03:45 (#635)

This used to happen to me as well. My girlfriend told me I was obsessed and when we went to Vegas she would get real pissy with me whenever I bought in for more than 60 dollars.

To solve this I made a deal with her. If she wanted to go to Vegas/Laughlin/Tahoe with me in the future she had to learn Basic Stratey and read Blackjack Secrets.

The results were great. The next time we went to Laughlin we played single deck she flat bet and got drunk while I spread 1-5 and she held her cards so that i could see them every hand that she wasnt doubling or splitting. She was happier, had more fun, and even wanted to stay at the tables longer than i did. Instead of being unhappy with me the next day like on previous trips, she ended up being in such a great mood that when we were in Vegas the next night she paid for drinks at the Golden Goose.

I recomend you try to make some sort of similar deal.

Red

My first marriage
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Nov-2002 10:07:25 (#641)

My first marriage ended because of Blackjack. Not by my choice, I was away on a trip and my wife cancelled the credit cards, changed the locks, and told me I was not welcome home again. She filed for divorce a few days later to "protect her and our family from my gambling."

My second marriage is to a woman who says to me, before each trip, "You know the only thing I care about, right? That you come home safely." Once a year I show her my balance sheet -- she never asks how I did when I come home from a trip.

Be careful on this one, you are playing for real here.

--Mayor

Re: My first marriage
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 16-Nov-2002 08:29:28 (#656)

My first one was a little more covert an overthrow than yours EJ. Years later she got wind of my playing and said "He was always good with money." My present wife was sceptical until she saw the $$ rolling in. It helps as EJ says to let her see the results of the time spent away from family. Most of the time I am playing right from the living room with my family all around me. When I get a blackjack it is "tickle torture time," so I make sure that I stay involved with my family by gaming from home where I find I also has the biggest advantage. Who could ask for anything more? Reminds me of a song......

Re: Significant Other and BlackJack
Posted by SammyBoy on 15-Nov-2002 10:58:57 (#642)

That's a very tough situation that I also find myself in. She doesn't mind the time I spend practicing as much though. Our problem is that we go to the casino together and she WILL NOT play BJ. She insists on playing the slots, so we are never ready to leave at the same time. Last night is a perfect example. I'm just starting to get my money back and she threatens to leave me at the casino if I don't leave immediately. It was 4 in the morning so I guess she was entitled to be pissed, but hell, I wasn't ready to quit just yet. ;-)

Re: Significant Other and BlackJack
Posted by MLB Scout on 18-Nov-2002 15:26:10 (#691)

I went through the same thing with one of the girls I date. She never understood my obsession until I started including her in my playing. Now she's part of my cover. She's an absolute knockout, and can smooze and act hammered with the best of them, all the while, keeping a side count or backcounting the next table.

Next up for the princess - Shuffle Tracking..

MLB

My solutions
Posted by ace on 20-Nov-2002 16:43:36 (#752)

When I go out and have a winning trip, I bring home something in the Little Blue Box. One trip to Tifannys is worth 3-4 more trips without any questions asked. Two or three winning trips in a row and I am good for the year.

You think I am joking? Try it sometime. Even if you are only up $200, blow it all on a necklace or bracelet and say "Yeah I was doing so well, this is for you." Never had a problem in 5 years using this system.

Re: My solutions
Posted by MLB Scout on 20-Nov-2002 22:13:55 (#768)

Well, you can keep buying her expensive gifts so you can earn your "Gambling Coupons" if you want. I bet it doesnt help your trip BR much. I strongly suggest including here in your passion of the game. She CAN be useful cover. Besides, when she's hooked, chances are she'll chip into your BR.

MLB

Re: My solutions
Posted by ace on 21-Nov-2002 07:53:49 (#776)

MLB I am actually very happy that she does not enjoy gambling. She has been to Vegas once and didnt enjoy it all that much. Personally, after three years, I like the fact that it is one part of my life she is not a part of. Keep in mind, I dont do this for a living, I do it for fun and to make money. So if spending $200 on a necklace one trip means my BR is ($200) but my home life is not only exponentially happier, but my gambling trips are done with exponentially LESS hassle, that is a win-win-win situation all around for me and certainly the utility I derive out of the expenditure farr excedes the expenditure itself.

Trip report
Posted by learning to count on 14-Nov-2002 18:39:55 (#629)

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHhhhhhhhhhhhhh Las Vegas. This was a real learning trip for me. Not only did I improve on my skills and win real money but I was able to meet the Las Vegas Bear and his towering son. To anyone who is interested The bear is an excellent promoter and supporter of card counting and is a formidible advangtage player himself. My hats off to you Bear for your helpfulness and friendliness to a perfect stranger. I started reading the book you suggested and I am enjoying it. Oh by the way the bear is not russian as his name led me to believe. One day when I return I want to play at the tables with the bear if he will oblige me.

I also met a person of incredible stature and celebrity in the counter world as well as other venues. Thank you xxxxx for lunch and for three hours of an education no Blackjack book could ever offer. I was in awe. xxxxx is one of the legends who like great spies of the cold war will never be known for thier accomplishments and the positive affect to our world. Some are born to be average some above, but xxxxx was made to be looked up to. He is the real thing. You should write that book some day xxxxx! What a life!

I also have to say that the Mayor is a TEACHER; in spanish we say a "Maestro". A master a mentor. Thank you mayor. Your advise turned out to be gold for me. Your right you have to ramp up fast and heavy. I did finally after biting my lip and betting the full potential. Wow twin hearts incredible. And I hit 9-1 and 4-1 several times after. Mind boggling. The Mayor is a MAESTRO!

Day one: Flew in late. Bumpy ride. Went to sleep early and rose early. Headed out to play. Came with 1200 units. First day went well I made close to 100 units. Played mainly shoes. Hi-LO, Ill-18, fab 4, surr 16-9,10,a. bet spread one unit at nuetral, five units at plus 1 tc, 10 units plus 2 tc, 15 units plus 3 tc, max bet 20 units plus 4 tc, two hands of 15 units if plus 5 tc. this after my bet spread was correctly adjusted by the mayor's advise on this site.
I played for several hours no HEAT! Important Learned item: You have to spread to max bet when the time is right or no money!!!!

That night we partied. We ate at Yolies. A Brazilian grill. This is a seven course meal. First bread and salad and assorted veggies, then grill brazillian sausage, then broiled chicken, then pork loin, then turkey, then sirloin, then tri tip, then lamb. All the while downing bottles and bottles of merlot. We had flan for desert and expresso. This all for around $30 dollars a person. Its in the book. Later we went to the Mirage to hang out at a bar there. Whew lots of action there. Very interesting women who leer at you sexually and ask you if you are lonely or need someone to talk to. The only problem I had with them is that they wanted $300.00 to stay. Hey thats a lot of work at the tables. We declined but not after a few laughs and drinks. I told you it would be clean Mayor. More Manana!

More!
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Nov-2002 09:44:08 (#638)

Fun! I want more 8-)

Re: Trip report part two black sunday
Posted by learning to count on 15-Nov-2002 16:17:21 (#650)

Long day on saturday and a long night of partying!. I went to bed at 2am. The other guys crashed later. I dont know if it is my age or I am just not a night owl. Got up at six am Vegas time. Dragged the others out of thier rooms and we went to eat breakfast. The Rio champaign brunch was great but pricey. At 18.50 a piece they better give me a back rub too! The champaign was soso. The food here ranges from american, italian, mexican, japanese (sushi), Barbicue, grilled meats and veggies, amongst others. Oh and the desert bar which I admit is my favorite with the soft icecream machine: hot fudge, nuts , strawberries....:). Well we ate like kings.

We were on the tables by 9am. We played for several hours the first shift on boring nuetral decks. Barely moving to plus 4 or down to 0 or minus 3.Then it happned the counts went sky high. These were high counts at the end of the shoe with less than two decks left. The cut card was deep very deep. I bet my max on two hands with a large side bet. Each bet on each hand totalled $125. Then the worst happend I get 19 and 18 totals the dealer has 20.

The count is still high and I bet big again with the same bet. Boom. I get 17 and 19 the dealer gets black jack...SHIT! The count is still high I bet one hand at 100 with a $25 side bet. I get a five and a six! Its time to double. The dealer is showing a six. Now I stearnly believe that luck is only for those who are dumb enough to consider the big wheel as a lot of fun in a casino. BOOM! I get and ace. The dealer has a five underneath the six and a queen comes out to top that.

$625 clams down the drain. It was like a nightmare. It went so fast. It was sheer nausia and shock that overcame me. I still had a decent count plus fifteen and close to the cut card. I push out three chips on two spaces and lay down a red chip on the side bet. Twenty. Two kings one red one white. The dealer pays me 20 bucks. Well may be I will win some money back. The dealer has twenty too. PUSH! The black cut card come out and the dealer lays it in front of me. I am in disbelief. 700 dollars and a headache. The slot machines are laughing.

The dealer pulls another shuffled deck out of the auto shuffler and plops it down in front of me. I cut and shove a $5.00 chip in front of me and start scanning. The next shoe is uneventful low counts and I lose 9 hands in a row. at least another 200 clams down. Even the centerfold waitress whose smells like a million dollars has little effect when she says "Would you like a another coffee sir". I say "no thanks I probably cant afford the tip". She smiles and walks off.

I am devastated after betting four rounds of max bets two hands each on a super high running count and a fast dealer. The count screamed at plus 31 with less than two decks left. What happened........? Im down over $1000.dollars. That is 200 units gone. I've had it. Emotionally I am waisted. I feel tired and angry. I gather the troops and tell them what happened. Hey this is a small loss for most counters but this the first time that it has been so bad for me. We leave and go to dinner....burger king! I guess I was punishing my self for losing. The other guys go to play double deck I go to bed.

What did I learn: That swings are normal and mine was mild. Bet Big and you risk losing big and finally reevaluate your game at the end of each day. Part three I came back on monday and played for twelve hours. What a come back. Hasta Manana!

revenge
Posted by learning to count on 17-Nov-2002 10:28:11 (#670)

Got up early and met up with my uncle Rick and aunt Diane. We had breakfast at the Bellagio buffet. This and the Rio buffets are the only buffets I like. Ceasars and the Mirage have above average buffet food also. The Bellagio buffet is interesting because they have many European delicasies such as smoked sturgion, three or four kinds of smoked salmon, Squid, and Octopus. They Italion and French pastries, and of course good ole american steak and eggs, sausage, bacon, and other egg dishes any way you like them. The price is stiff though. Hey my uncle and aunt love me. After breakfast we went to the Bellagio exhibition hall to look at Russian eggs. My aunt loves Faberge. To be honest it was interesting because they added a short history of the Russian Tsars and thier way of life.

After this I bid adieu (french for adios) to my uncle and aunt and met up with my freinds. We quickly hit the tables and had mixed results. I battled it out for several hours and I was able to win back enough units to put me within 60 units of my original 1200 unit bank roll. The games were boring to say the least. I played hours of nuetral decks flat betting them most of the time. I would put a five or six unit bets up just to keep the dealer used to bet swings. The decks went high enough 15% of the time and I was lucky enough to win enough to get me back to sanity in my bank roll.

After wards we took a break and went to eat at the Little Buddha restuarant at the Palms. The theme here is Asian with peace and harmony thrown in. Pricey yet appetizing. I tried spiny tuna rolls, spring rolls, a little buddha roll with a Bud light. For the main course I tried a Tempura Ahi Tuna roll which had an incredible taste. It was Sushi type roll with a fried Tempura crust.The Tuna was raw with a Wasabi spice mixture on top. The roll was very good except there are cheaper places to get this type of food in Las Vegas. We hit the tables for a couple of more hours and made 10 units extra.

After wards we played Video poker on jacks or better machines that had a 10/7 payout with perfect strategy play of course. After an hour of this I was up 12 units. One of my buddies hit a straight flush and made a couple of hundred dollars on it. He was betting only three or four coins. Remember to play max bet! After this we went back to our hotel and I dropped a hundred in a five dollar wheel of fortune and half way through I hit a spin and won $500!!! This was the end of my voodoo play for the trip.

What I learned this day was that Black jack is a grind and you have to be able to play through and try and earn as much as possible. I play long hours and when I find a casino I like I camp out. This is dangerous because if you play like a counter you get watched like a counter. If you bet red with a good spread you will get heat. If you have some big wins you get to have long pleasant chats with the Pit Critters. I have been lucky so far because I have a great personality and I can mix well with people. I watch other mousy counters who sit there and look collegiate. They stare at the game like it is going to run away. They bet with the count that I can predict there next bet. They wong in and out so much that it is obvious to other counters. They hover over thier chips like an inmate at dinner. When I hear the dealer whisper to the critters "I think we have a counter" I get nervous. In the end it is always the obvious that gets picked out. This trip I had the dealer explain to me why she thought the guy was a counter. The pit boss added a few of his own ideas what a counter was. I even went as far as to ask him how I could learn how to count. He said it is very hard and only nerds with high IQ'S can do it. HMMMMMMMMMMM.
Well on Tuesday I returned for one last go at it. I figured this would be the day of reckoning or bust. Sorry so long. Tomorrow!

Fun, can't wait for that last day! *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Nov-2002 10:13:09 (#680)

The phoinex rises
Posted by learning to count on 18-Nov-2002 21:17:09 (#702)

AHHHHHHHHH I love Las Vegas. Okay J man my gambling degenerate friend comes in at 6am after tearing up double deck and a game that I would not dare get near. Eight decks dble 9 10 or 11. Why J man why? "Because they were dealing up to half a deck at three in the morning thats why!" Hmmmmmm good point. J man won over 40 units playing the early morning shift. Jman is an old time BJ player freind of mine who remembers the rat pack and saw them. He Plays KO now and plays for up to 15-18 hours a day. What stamina! One day we started at 5:30 am and we played three five hours shifts with one hour breaks for pottie and food runs. I was done by 2:00 am. Jman gets his second wind and vooom up til six am. He says he has a few whiskies and boom he dives right back in.

Well today is D-day and I have until 6am the next day to make my mark. Jman is sleeping soundly snoring and mumbling something about "300 is to much how about 50 for a half hour". ???????

SO I decide I need to buy some souvineers and go see the BJ21 offices and finally meet some honest to goodness legends. Nice place and LVBear is very accomodating. I bought Beyond Counting by james Grosjean and have found it to be very entertaining and educational. In this book Grosjean covers every angle in getting the advantage on a number of casino games beside Blakjack including casino war, video poker, craps, and even the big wheel...etc.. Great book so far. More on that later.

Well after a lengthy time with LV Bear and trading war stories ole Jman calls me on the cell phone and says lets do it. We hit the tables by 12:30 pm. He sits down at a table and starts playing. Today my strategy is this. I have 200 units in my wallet and I am ready for bear. I start by back counting each shoe from the first card and jump in at plus one. I did this at several tables with mediocre success.

I am 20 units ahead. So now I sit down at a shoe game across from J man and we start counting. The dealer was cutting out approximately one deck. This shoe is nuetral to positive plus one to plus two. Suddenly the shoe hits a Plus 9 within a sevral cards from the cut card. I put side bets out and and fifty on each hand. The dealer has 10 showing and I have twenty on both hands. The dealer flips over a six and busts with a another ten. For the sake of cover all I can say is that I am over 80 units ahead. Well we play until midnight and I have basically end the days play with winning every hand but three on the last shoe and walking away with a huge win. 245 units ahead.

We celebrate this by going to another favorite casino and hit thier double deck game and play unitl we break even or are twenty units ahead. Two a m and I cant see the cards anymore. We order a couple of cuba libre's and thank god for LIBERTAD in this country. I'm home now and leaving Vegas was like breaking up with a good woman. There is light at the end of the table though I have my next trip booked and payed for. Hey like fish in the sea there are always geen fields to play in and other women to love. SO a little seperation is good for the soul. AHHHHHHH I love Las Vegas.

Re: The phoinex rises
Posted by ace on 20-Nov-2002 16:13:37 (#751)

Thanks for taking the time to write that, it was very enjoyable to read.

Site Suggestion, Question.
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 14-Nov-2002 22:24:10 (#634)

Hello Mayor,

How about a glossary of blackjack terms on the website? Most of the books I own have them, but they're not very comprehensive because they're either specialized or dated. I've had to look up quite a few of the things the pros have posted over the past few months, and I've seen a couple of other post's asking for clarification on the jargon, too. Well, ok... one of them was mine.

Just an idea.

Also, It would make a great appendix if you were ever to publish a book. Sorry if I'm the 1001st person to ask you this, but do you have plans to publish a book? The essays you've posted look as if they were written with this in mind.

Thanks,
-Felix

Answers
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Nov-2002 09:41:59 (#637)

I thought about a glossary of terms, but there is such a great glossary over at bj21.com, I would always recommend that one. I am not a great fan of reinventing the wheel. Here is the link:

http://64.71.133.211/glossary/

As for a book, I really thought (twice) about writing a book, and even contacted a publisher who agreed to look at my material. However, after discussions with many in the field, it became clear that this would forever have to be an act of love. Even the best books only earn the author in the "hundreds" each year. Only "Beat the Dealer" made a fortune for its author. After coming to this realization, I just decided that I would make my writing available for free.

There were two reasons for the decision to take the "free" route. The first is that it will reach more people in the present format (I believe) than by book. The second is purely selfish. I do have those non-Christian motives from time to time. The power of name recognition gets one in a lot of doors that would otherwise not be open (e.g. political/media). Thus I make my work freely available to garner name recogniztion.

Take care,

--Mayor

Re: Answers
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 16-Nov-2002 08:06:28 (#654)

Agree. And it is much easier to keep things up to date on the web than by pen to paper publishing. With my book I publish in short bursts which are sold off and the data in each publishing is updated. Some of the info I don't like to publish on the web simply because I don't want everyone to know about it, which may also be seen as selfish. Unless you have something out of the ordinary to publish re blackjack, you are reinventing the wheel as EJ has stated, but that does not mean people will not by the book. The wheel has improved if you haven't noticed. Used to look like a bicycle tire, now it is a 17" titanium low profile wide enough to squash an entire cat! ;>

Know the Enemy
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 15-Nov-2002 14:31:03 (#646)

Consider the following scenario:
you walk into a casino, sit down at a table, buy-in, and play a round of cards.

Let us look at it from the Pit Boss perspective (that guy standing at a podium about 10 feet away behind the tables.)

First, how are you dressed?
Are you wearing any jewerly? What type?
What kind of shoes do you have on? Shirt? Belt?

How did you walk up to the table--
Mouth hanging open, eyes looking around at all the flashing lights and ringing bells?
Did you stop a couple feet short of the table and watch a hand or two first?
Did you shove someone aside and start grabbing drink holders when sitting down?

When you bought in, did you try to hand the dealer your money?
Did you throw it into the dealer's area, while the dealer was changing another customer, with a "Me First" attitude?
Did you sit quietly with cash in front of you, until the dealer asked for your buy in?

How much did you buy in for?
Did you present a players card? Hold it up to the dealer and ask if you should give it to him?
Did you toss it seperately from your cash, to the corner of the table where the dealer normally puts it?
Did you just slide it with your cash, or did you even present a player's card?

When you got your chips did you--
reach over the table and grab them from the dealer?
neatly stack them into 15 piles of 3 chips each, and build a cute little pyramid with them along the rail?
try to place them in the slot machine coin bucket you have placed on the table?
take the one tall stack the dealer has pushed over to you, and without counting, expertly cut them into piles of 20 chips each?
place them all in a jumbled pile, stuffing half the chips into your pockets?

When the cards were dealt --
Did you try to pick them up in a face up game?
Peter Griffin in 'Theory of Blackjack' mentions that a novice player looks at his own cards first, and then as an after-thought checks the dealer's upcard. A more experienced player watches the dealer's upcard first. After all, it's not what you have but what the dealer has that counts, right? So where were you looking when the cards where dealt?

Notice -- The Pit Boss has already formed some pretty accurate conclusions about:
Your Income Level,
Your Social Status,
Your Personality,
Your Risk-taking aversion,
Your familarity of casinos,
Your knowledge level of the game,
Your Blackjack skills.

And all you thought you did was play a single hand of blackjack, and the Pit Boss never moved from his podium.

Nice post! *NM*
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Nov-2002 14:46:42 (#647)

Could contribute some ...
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 15-Nov-2002 14:51:56 (#648)

Could contribute some further analysis if you think this is on the right track.

Re: Could contribute some ...
Posted by Slowhand on 16-Nov-2002 08:21:23 (#655)

Please do. That was an excellent analysis. I saw myself guilty of several "tells".
Thanks.
Slowhand

Re: Could contribute some ...
Posted by Kurt M. Rufa on 16-Nov-2002 18:51:20 (#658)

Please, absolutely! I can see how these are relevant questions but I don't know what the 'right' answers are, in some cases.

Building up a few 'example profiles' would be especially keen. Some of the attributes you mention are all associated into particular stereotypes, but which matches with which?

Abraham, YOU PISS ME OFF!
Posted by phantom007 on 16-Nov-2002 21:51:44 (#661)

Mr. Abraham, or should it be Ms., you recently responded to a post wherein you basically accused me of "moving my lips" while counting. Please note that I was not moving my lips, I was still using my fingers!

But with all due respect, this post IS THE BEST THAT I HAVE SEEN AFTER REVIEWING LITERALLY HUNDREDS ON THIS SITE AND OTHERS!

You have nailed me almost to a "tee".

I thought I was being a "ploppy"...I now realize that I was showing the Casino that I was a "Pro".

Thank you Sir/Maam!

Re: Abraham, YOU PISS ME OFF!
Posted by learning to count on 17-Nov-2002 10:40:33 (#672)

I use my toes :)

Re: Know the Enemy II
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 18-Nov-2002 13:33:33 (#684)

Although the Post points out a number of "TELLS", there really isn't any 'right' or 'wrong' behavior (other than the rightness or wrongness of violating procedures or social norms). Many are probably unconscious, and most of them will be seen everywhere, at any casino, at any time, with teams of counters or not even one counter present.

Any Pit Boss with any experience under his belt has seen everything under the sun at least once (and 99% of it he sees over and over again). What some chump thinks is a clever move, or smart remark, the Pit Boss probably thinks "Gee, just another Saturday night". Think about an 'experienced' player, who plays for several hours at a time, several times a week. After a year of this steady playing, his hourly total at the tables probably matches a whole month's worth of an employee's casino time.

DO NOT use the above post's scenarios, thinking you can use them to walk into a casino and fool people into concluding that you have never been in a casino before and know nothing or very little about the game. You are not good enough to pull it off. You will appear to be a person, who has been in a casino before, PRETENDING to have never been in a casino before. This approach will backfire, and bring even more heat upon you.

Someone pretending to be something they are not, is SUSPECIOUS! Something is wrong. Maybe you are a thief, or a cheat. Maybe you are working in conjunction with the dealer (that New Dealer has only been here for a month or two, you know), pretending to be something else, and tonight is the night the big play goes down. At the very least, you are just another one of those pesky counters, playing the stupid "Gee whiz, how do you play this game?" scam.

Only a very good full time pro could pull off a total "something you are not" act. What you can do very easily, is "bend" your actions or mannerisms. Observe others around you, and then look inward, and examine yourself. You might find some things you can avoid or not do as much, and some things you can "play up" or start doing.

Start trying to 'categorize' the other players. Observe how they react to situations and their mannerisms. Figure out what category you want other's to categorize you as, and start emulating those mannerisms. What do they do when they win a hand? Lose a hand? In-between hands? During a shuffle? How do they talk to the dealer during these situations? How do they talk to the Pit Boss? The cocktail waitress?

Here are a few categories to get you started:

Total Tourist -- Has never been in a casino before and knows nothing about how to play. Brought $25 to lose, and after having lost that, will probably never come to a casino again. Not a desirable customer because they hold up play and irritates other players because of lack of knowledge of rules. Will spend more time standing around and gawking than playing. If they do get engaged in a game, good likelyhood they will lose way too much money, get drunk and obnoxious, whine and cry about being cheated, or otherwise become a nuisance.

Neurotic Loser -- Whines when he initially gets bad cards. Whines when he gets good cards, thinking the dealer might have a better hand, or because he can't double down. Whines when he puts more money on the table for a double down. Whines when he gets beat. Whines when he wins a hand, because he didn't bet more. Whines at a push, or a good double, or winning a bunch of splits, or having to split. You get the idea. One would wonder how much longer he would play as much as he seems to hate it, but he actually enjoys the abuse. If he ever gets lucky and actually has a winning session, he will immediately play for larger stakes or bet on some crazy gamble and lose it all. That way he can get back sooner to his crying about his bad luck. Ultimately, trying to make his daily allotment of 'money to be lost' last as long as possible for maximum whining potential.

Regular Joe -- Plays pretty good basic strategy game. Has a monthly allotment of funds set aside to lose. Probably subscribes some form of quit when ahead, up as you win, when you're hot, your hot, when you're not, you're not philosophy. Maybe superstitious or a 'hunch' bettor. Fairly steady in bet amount and total action. Might be playing the comp hustle game. Maybe just killing time doing something, after all, he is only here because the wife insists on him coming while she plays the slots.

You also have the Drunken Girlfriend, I'm Only Here With My Friends, Welfare Check Came This Week, High Roller Needing An Ego Stroke, Retard With Money, Crazy Idiot But He Gives Us Good Action, and about a thousand other categories. Some the casino would rather get rid of, or avoid, and some they fall all over themselves to welcome.

Re: Know the Enemy II
Posted by Slowhand on 19-Nov-2002 07:43:33 (#713)

Thanks for an excellent follow up.
Slowhand

Tournaments
Posted by LIl Casino on 16-Nov-2002 06:51:41 (#653)

Mayor do you know of any sites that list tournaments. BJ Insider use to butI didnt see it on there.Thanks

Re: Tournaments
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 16-Nov-2002 20:47:36 (#660)

What part of the world are you located? I get some info re tournies from time to time I can pass on here.

more basic questions
Posted by pal on 16-Nov-2002 13:03:15 (#657)

I recently read Proffesional Blackjack and Blackjack Attack 2E. Both advocate backcounting but neither specifies exactly where to stand. I am only 5'6 and I have a hard time seeing all the cards especially if the table is full or near full, unless i stand right behind somone. any suggestions?

Also, I only play as a hobby, if all I do is wong in and out at +1, would this mean I am playing an even money game?

Finally, I can count or play basic strategy, I lose the count every time I have soft hand or split or something. any suggestions?

Pal

Re: more basic questions
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 16-Nov-2002 20:46:06 (#659)

"I recently read Proffesional Blackjack and Blackjack Attack 2E. Both advocate backcounting but neither specifies exactly where to stand. I am only 5'6 and I have a hard time seeing all the cards especially if the table is full or near full, unless i stand right behind somone. any suggestions?"

Hi Pal. Both very good books. The answer is where ever you can see the cards from. I am not being smart, and I am also 5'7". I try to stick myself near the end of two table and count them both or look for something to track. You can also try the higher limit tables since you will only be playing with an advantage, tho a small one.

"Also, I only play as a hobby, if all I do is wong in and out at +1, would this mean I am playing an even money game?"

At a multi deck I would suggest you jump in and out at True Count +2 to make sure you have the edge.

"Finally, I can count or play basic strategy, I lose the count every time I have soft hand or split or something. any suggestions?"

Depends where you are sitting. I like first base so I can play, then count the table. You need more practice to make sure that you can do it in your sleep. I know it is just a hobby for you, but like any hobby you get satisfaction from doing it right, even if you only play a bit. Like building a model or something, you want it done right.

Re: more basic questions
Posted by CanKen on 17-Nov-2002 18:45:00 (#675)

As you, and others, have said, the only way to learn to count well is lots of practice. It almost seems that with enough practice the count is kept in one part of the brain while the rest of the brain deals with other matters.

One question though; why do you prefer first base and playing then counting the round, instead of third base and counting all the hands before your play?

Re: more basic questions
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Nov-2002 22:19:18 (#677)

"As you, and others, have said, the only way to learn to count well is lots of practice. It almost seems that with enough practice the count is kept in one part of the brain while the rest of the brain deals with other matters."

You have described it to a tee. It is like driving the car in a snow storm and listening to your sig-other while listening to the radio. In fact I suggest that you practice with the radio or TV on and the kids running all over the house to simulate casino conditions.

"One question though; why do you prefer first base and playing then counting the round, instead of third base and counting all the hands before your play?"

I got in the habit. I am of the impression that the count is always trying to return to zero, Aces to nutral, and will do so asap. I have been told that I am wrong and that sitting anyplace is fine. I have also seen somewhere that it makes no difference where a basic strategy player sits, but that it does for a counter, and that is why I got into sitting at first or left of it. I make my bet decision right after the last hands are counted. I don't have to move my head from left to right while counting, but you don't have to from third either. Third is also a player heat spot as people are usually looking for someone to blame for everything that happens to them, unless it's a GOOD thing....

Where do you like to play from and why? Right after I play my hand I count it, then count the hands as the players hit them in batches, ie, count the cards as one group, not one at a time, making comments like "nice pull" to make it look like I am just a normal guy making conversation, then I count the dealers hand and laugh when he kills us all or go for the high five when he busts out.

Voodoo correction
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 18-Nov-2002 10:22:46 (#681)

>I am of the impression that the count is always trying to return to zero.<
Impressions are one thing, and facts are another. Once the count becomes positive or negative, the tendency is that the count remains the same.

Non-Voodoo part of the discussion - Some of my opinions.
>Right after I play my hand I count it<
You should be incorporating the cards in your hand into the count BEFORE you play it. Play variations are best when they consider all possible exposed cards (so you should be including the dealer's upcard into the count also).

It is unclear if you are describing a face-up or pitch game. In pitch, you have to be careful about what cards you have counted and which you haven't. In a face-up game, then every player's cards should be counted BEFORE you play your hand. This would make 1st base a poor choice to sit, as you won't be able to count all the cards quick enough before the dealer is wanting you to make a decision. Third base is bad, because the other ploppies give the player heat, and you have a limited amount of time from when the last card is exposed to when you need to calculate your next bet. A middle seat is bad, because you run the danger of bobbing your head while counting the cards, looking like you are at a tennis match.

So 1st, middle, and 3rd all have disadvantages. 1st, middle, and 3rd all have unique advantages also. Experience will tell you which is best suited for your style of play.

Re: Voodoo ROBO correction
Posted by zengrifter on 18-Nov-2002 13:11:41 (#682)

ROBO has been assuaged of this particular VOODOO (ie, the count being inextricably drawn towards its return to zero) REPEATEDLY AT CCCAFE and I guess he needed yet another verification of this incorrect assumption. Notwithstanding, this basic tenet - that the count tends to stay where its at is contra-logical and defies the logic of homespun novices, in general (mine included). zg

The count tends to stay stationary
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2002 15:48:09 (#725)

One way of picturing this is that the deck is like an inclined plane. Though the plane returns from its high point to touching the ground, it forever has the same slope. The TC is the "slope" of the deck.

Thanks for the help
Posted by pal on 20-Nov-2002 20:18:15 (#759)

Board,

thanks for all the help. I am still in college, and I don't have bankroll, but I plan to practice until I get out. I've only been to the casino 3 times,
1st, ploppy won a 150 on let it ride
2nd, lost $100 playing with a friend who plays basic strategy.
3rd, won 50 playing basic strategy, I was gonna try to count but I got flustered, i wasn't going to spread anyways.

the dealer and a bunch at the table all questioned me about hitting an A7 (or 18 as they call it) against a 10. I was suprised, b/c I figured all the dealers know basic strategy and expect most people to follow it. One guy was consistenly doubling his 8 against dealer 5 or 6.

So, if I play perfect BS, i'll never play a different game again, and I accept that I am playing a losing game, and I still a ploppie?

Thanks for all the help. Mayor, I read two of your requests, BJA, and prof. BJ, I am looking forward to reading other..

thanks for all the help,
Pal

Re: Thanks for the help
Posted by zengrifter on 21-Nov-2002 01:35:06 (#773)

>>So, if I play perfect BS, never play a different game again,
and I accept that I am playing a losing game, and I still a ploppie? <<
-------

NO, YOU are a BASIC-STRATEGIST. zg

Re: more basic questions
Posted by SammyBoy on 19-Nov-2002 15:44:13 (#724)

You said:Finally, I can count or play basic strategy, I lose the count every time I have soft hand or split or something. any suggestions?

I continuously repeat the count in my head. If the count is +5 I keep repeating in my mind - five five five five. It has really helped me. Also pick up a copy of Sage Blackjack and practice with it on the computer.

Where is ZG?
Posted by phantom007 on 16-Nov-2002 22:17:35 (#662)

ZG has not posted for a week or so. ZG certainly posted some information that was valuable only to the learned few. But he also posted info. that was valuable to the masses of "wantabees" in the BJ world.

So...WHAT HAPPENED TO ZG?

Re: Where is ZG?
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Nov-2002 07:49:32 (#665)

He is back and will be posting here shortly.

Re: Where is ZG?
Posted by The Mayor on 17-Nov-2002 09:43:54 (#668)

He is doing the thang on an extended team trip. Back soon.

Re: Where is ZG?
Posted by SammyBoy on 18-Nov-2002 17:36:03 (#695)

I heard is was still in the back room at Caesars. ;-)

Philosophical question
Posted by Kurt M. Rufa on 16-Nov-2002 22:18:02 (#663)

This is more addressed to those who pursue advantage play but don't make a living at it. I'm hoping to understand people's mindsets---specifically, the sophisticated and disciplined mindsets that frequent this forum---in the hope that this might help in forming my own. I hope this isn't off topic or beaten to death -- if so please consider it instantly moderated by Our Gracious Host.

Would you continue to play even if conditions everywhere were such that you couldn't achieve positive EV at the game? For instance, suppose the whole world was such that you could only enter at the beginning of a shoe, 8 decks, 25% penetration, and you could only bet either one or two units until the deck was reshuffled.[0] Maybe basic strategy is -0.5%; if you play using all the info available you can achieve -0.2%.

Would you still play, at the minimum betting level, at /negative/ ev, just to execute a sort of craft and mental discipline? To know that not only are you playing this game better than 99% of players, but of 99.99% of players? To enjoy the knowledge that you're engaging your mind while playing, in a real, financial, and 'testable' way, a demonstration of concentration where the stakes are as real as the temptations and distractions?

[0] My instincts, yet uneducated, suggest that this will never be a +ev game. If I'm wrong, add whatever restrictions necessary to make it even or less.

Re: Philosophical question
Posted by phantom007 on 16-Nov-2002 22:28:13 (#664)

Yes! Yes! Yes!

Playing even is "good enough" for me, if Comps are included.

Does this help?

No +EV, No Play
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Nov-2002 07:54:42 (#666)

An advantage player looks to invest his her money into the most highly profitable playing conditions for the shortest period of time. Think of it like the % return you get on your bank account. 3% is better than 1%. One month is better than three. No swings are better than 1SD is better than 2SD. I generally work with a double digit edge and like to work with that or better. Anything less is selling yourself short.

Re: Philosophical question
Posted by ZOD on 17-Nov-2002 08:04:32 (#667)

Would I continue to play an even game? Interesting question. But for me, a no brainer. I'm not a gambling addict; I have no need for the rush of the bet. The mental discipline, the "sharper mind", these things are a welcome by product of my play. But the fact is, I play for the score. In blackjack, the score is counted in chips.

It's not that I don't enjoy the game and the travel and the personalities that come along with it. In a longer session, sometimes I even get into this marvelous rhythm with the ebb and flow of the cards...almost a "blackjack high." But these sidelights are not enough to sustain me.

I don't make a living at blackjack. But it's a very lucrative pastime and I've certainly gotten used to the extra money. If the nearby casinos changed their game so that advantage play was nullified, I'd find another hobby.

Best...

ZOD

Re: Philosophical question
Posted by The Mayor on 17-Nov-2002 09:46:26 (#669)

Almost everyone on the face of the planet continues to play with negative EV. So this is not much of a question, it is more a statement of fact. But, learning advantage play is sort of like taking the blue pill (in the movie, The Matrix), you can never go back. For me, I just don't want EV, I want lots of EV, so even games that are weakly positive I avoid.

Life is too short to waste losing money.

--Mayor

Re: Philosophical question
Posted by learning to count on 17-Nov-2002 10:39:13 (#671)

The bottom line is that 8 decks suck. The casinos think that two decks cut off are the norm on 8 decks. Accompany this with lousy rules and high minimums; forget about it! If you have to play wong.

For some reason six deck shoes are great fun. They are long enough to get positive counts that could last through the whole shoe and great for wonging because of the shuffle machines. I get lots of time on six deckers and before you no it they shuffle up quick. I always feel like I back count for ever on eight decks especially if they are positive/nuetral. Save your bottle returns and have yard sales and buy a ticket to vegas! LTC Where is that ZENGRIFTER?

Re: Philosophical question
Posted by SammyBoy on 18-Nov-2002 17:08:21 (#694)

I can definitely say that I would continue to play, but only occasionally. A few hours a year maybe. Since finding a decent place to play SD I won't play the 6 deck shoes anymore. I used to play blackjack just for the fun of it before I learned to count. But losing is not fun. The only fun I have now is walking out with the casino's money.

Re: Philosophical question
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 18-Nov-2002 18:06:14 (#697)

When I was still a BS player I would sometimes also play craps or baccarat as well as BJ. Once there was an evening where I spent about equal time at all three games. When the pit boss ran my players card through the computer he remarked: "Wow, you've really been around tonight!".

About a month ago, at the same casino, it occured to me that if one of their first impressions of me is the play data off the computer, it might be a good idea to make some minimum bets at some other games to make it look like I don't play backjack exclusively.

So, for the first time in the six or seven months I've been counting, I played craps. It goes to show how much my perspective has changed over the past half a year or so. 5 bucks with ten in odds. I used to think I was smart doing this. Hey, no house adavantage on those odds bets, can't do much better than that.

Wait a minute... I'm still losing the same amount on the pass line. All free odds are doing for me is increasing variance. This sucks! I actually felt uncomfortable. It truly bothered me.

So, if the games were ever so horribly corrupted, as Mr. Rufa proposes, I may play once in a while for old times sake. But it may be time for Felix to start studying the stock market.

-Felix

Re: Philosophical question
Posted by SammyBoy on 18-Nov-2002 18:19:07 (#698)

Felix,

I agree 100%.

Incidentally....
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 18-Nov-2002 19:44:49 (#700)

Incidentally, I think this was an exellent post Mr. Rufa.
Off topic?... Definately not.
Beaten to death?... Impossible. This topic deserves at least as much attention as any discussion about hard math or anything else.

To directly answer your question:
I believe the mindset of an advantage player is defined by a certain convergence of values.

Ok, let's see.. It's been taking a lot of elbow grease for me to learn this stuff. Why not spend the time studying for another computer certification? Hummm... probably make as much money, or more, doing that. But it wouldn't be as fun.

Learn how to play Scrabble really well? Uh, well that would satisfy the part of my brain that bought all those "Mighty Brain Teasers" books. A bit like mastubation, though. Counting "X"'s doesn't pay for plane fare to Vegas. Feels good, but no tangible reward.

Hey, how about if I spend the time in strip clubs? The ol' Id will certainly be appeased. But wait... I'm wasting my time here. I've just tucked all of my money and the left side of my brain snugly into that chicks bikini strap!

It seems there are many facets to the psych of an advantage player. Asthetic, financial, and even superficial. We all start with some element that draws us toward adavtage play, and aquire the rest.

-Felix

Re: Incidentally....
Posted by ZOD on 18-Nov-2002 20:13:08 (#701)

Well said. There is the game of "casino blackjack", and then there is "advantage blackjack". I prefer the latter.

ZOD

YOU ARE ALL WRONG!
Posted by phantom007 on 18-Nov-2002 22:23:14 (#707)

If it was an even game, you would still be playing. I would (for comps). And you would too!

I love the game. You do too!

Now, if there were no Comps...maybe, maybe not.

But we do love the game.

Re: YOU ARE ALL WRONG!
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 18-Nov-2002 22:55:51 (#708)

Yes, I love the game.
And if the comps included a chick, a .5% cashback bonus and an evening in Michael Persinger's God helmet. I would play an even odds game.
Six months ago I would have agreed with you whole-heartedly. Now, only half heartedly.

I guess you really can never go back. Those certianly were the good 'ol days... cough, cough... weren't they!

- Felix

sorry, but...
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2002 15:56:36 (#726)

I would not set foot in a casino if I couldn't generate an advantage.

--Mayor

cover play? Mayor etc.
Posted by hammer on 17-Nov-2002 15:51:35 (#673)

We hear about all information on what to do as far as
the pit crew goes
but how do we handle other players that notice us, on our good days??
they yell out comments ,etc.

Hey Mayor,how does your 1st wife feel now,since you are known as one
of the
worlds best?

On good days when we are rolling it in, should we merely quit,
because we have been playing over an hour?? Cash is king.
Answers from the board/Pondering,.,,

Re: cover play? Mayor etc.
Posted by ZOD on 17-Nov-2002 17:10:38 (#674)

It happened to me today. I win three max bets in a row (including a blackjack) and the guy next to me says loudly, "You must be counting cards!" I just as loudly start explaining my "system" which is based on numerology and the general "feel" I sometimes get. Then I pleasantly offer to play with HIS chips for a while so he could see how it works. The floor person (who knows me) just chuckles and asked me if I'm back to even yet. "Almost," I say cheerfully. Everybody laughs.

As far as leaving the table with winnings: I learned early that big wins just draw too much attention. My bankroll was mostly built a few chips at a time, with small wins and religious "pocketing". I like flying under the radar.

Best...

ZOD

Hammer This.
Posted by phantom007 on 18-Nov-2002 22:08:08 (#706)

As to maximum winnings, I must suggest "go with the flow". About a year ago, playing SD, I turned $2,000. into $30,000. If there is NO heat, if you are being encouraged to keep playing (by the PC's), if the Count, and the Cards stay right, then "press"!

Your comments regarding "ex-wife", while likely supportive in intent, may not in reality be so. Those of us who post here think, or at least, hope, that we are among friends. Not all ex-wives are bad. Not all current wives are bad.
We all have our successes and setbacks.

THE ULTIMATE WINNERS ARE THOSE WHO:

1. Are able to press their successes.

2. Are able to survive their setbacks.

AND #2 is usually more important than #1.

Re:phantom.
Posted by hammer on 19-Nov-2002 17:43:18 (#730)

Good advice.
re ex.. Hey I talk with all my old gals, and no hard feelings. Actually
let a few good ones get away,like the ones that swallow.

My ex wife
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2002 12:52:48 (#721)

You said: Hey Mayor,how does your 1st wife feel now,since you are known as one
of the worlds best?

Honestly, I have no idea. I haven't spoken to her in years. And, also honestly, I just hope her life is working for her now. I am not angry at her, nor do I want to rub her nose in it. Quite the opposite, I view her actions as a catalyst for some truly great changes in my life.

--Mayor

M's ex. and cover play
Posted by hammer on 19-Nov-2002 17:40:49 (#729)

Glad things are ok. Just wondering because so few people admit
theyre mistakes in life. A true gentleman or lady admits, and learns.

speaking before of cover play-
I used thi sone recently: warning...its a brave tactic only to be
used by the experienced.
while starting to play , I mentioned loudly that IAM the best and going
to take the cash..Iam a pro..watch out...

Halves Indices
Posted by Furon on 17-Nov-2002 18:51:13 (#676)

Dear Mayor,

Are the indices for halves that you post accurate? I play halves with half deck division and primarily in AC since this is no longer my profession and I am close to AC. Do you have all indices for the game I play? And possible explain the conservatism of deviating from basic strategy the decisions you posted.

Thanks,

Furon

Re: Halves Indices
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Nov-2002 10:08:21 (#679)

You said: Are the indices for halves that you post accurate?

Yes, they were obtained from Professional Blackjack Analyzer, software developed by Stanford Wong. However, you should not that I am using "Halves Doubled" -- namely 1,2,2,3,2,1,0,-1,-2,-2 (and not .5, 1, 1, 1.5...).

You said: Do you have all indices for the game I play?

I could obtain them, but for 8 deck there is almost no gain in moving from 18 indices to a full set of indices. Much more important is finding decent penetration and perfecting your wonging skills.

You said: And possible explain the conservatism of deviating from basic strategy the decisions you posted.

I don't understand what you are asking.

Best luck,

--Mayor

Re: Halves Indices
Posted by Furon on 18-Nov-2002 22:05:45 (#705)

Mayor,

Thnk you for your response. I was a bet tired when posted and realize that you are using whole deck division instead of half. Is there an advantage in multiple decks to use half deck division and what would your adjustment be for betting for each as rich or deficient for betting?

Furon

Re: Halves Indices
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2002 12:48:52 (#720)

If you can use 1/2 deck division in multiple decks, you have a much better eye than me. Here is the problem...

RC = 13, about 4 decks remaining. Hmmm... TC is about 3, maybe a little more.

RC = 13, about 4.5 decks remaining. Hmmm... I'm not very good at division, let's see, how does that go? OK 4 into 13 is 3 and change. 5 into 13 is 2 and change. Let's compromise and call it 3. (This is called interpolation).

And you get the same result for all your troubles at either 4 or 4.5 decks!

--Mayor

IDs and comps, NEW THOUGHTS
Posted by zengrifter on 18-Nov-2002 06:07:44 (#678)

I have posted a response and thoughts about 'Alter Egos'/IDs on the other board! (below) zg

http://cardcounter.com/nonBJ.pl

High Count Loses
Posted by Count Luckula on 18-Nov-2002 13:25:38 (#683)

I was in AC this past weekend playing 8D DOA DAS. As always, the city is loaded with ploppies and very few people who even play good basic strategy along with giving you bad advice. At the first casino, I was playing $10 min spreading 1-10 on a 6.5/8 game. There was about 4 decks left and a running count of +21 (TC +5). I bet $75 on two hands. One hand 8-8 and the other hand 10-4 against a dealer 6. I split the 8-8 and draw a two on the first hand. I am feeling really good about this double and retrieve $200 out of my pocket and place another $75. I draw a ten and the dealer hits the next 8. ANOTHER 8! I split again and draw a 6. The final 8 draws a ten. I now have $150-20,$75-14,$75-18,and $75-14. The dealer flips the hole card and its a 10. Everybody is anxiously awaiting another 10 when it happens...a five comes flying out and suddenly I feel like the guy who loses in a game of three card monty. After losing this hand I was down about 100 units which is where I ended up for the weekend. I did find a game that was 7.0/8.0 pen, but couldn't seem to hold onto the chips after my winning streaks. I had fun regardless of lossing and I am still on the plus side overall so I guess I should be happy that I am winning in the long run.

I have one question, is there some sort of factor you can add into the true count based on the number of decks left. I have a friend who likes to only bet more when there is less 4 decks remaining. What is the proper strategy based on monte carlo runs?

there is NO such formula...
Posted by zengrifter on 18-Nov-2002 13:53:11 (#685)

... and sometimes your trip profit/loss will be detirmined by a single session, or even a single round! zg

Welcome to the game
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 18-Nov-2002 14:01:22 (#686)

One of the reasons I won't play an 8 deck game. There are just too many cards. When you start out with 416 cards (32 of them being Fives), anything can happen. Even if you have a TC=+10, probably there are still about 7 or 8 Fives left to ruin your day. In a single deck game, after the dealer has hit his 16 for 21 four times, he 100% won't be getting anymore Fives. About the only thing that would be of interest in your story is: What SUIT was the Five? ; > )

In answer to your question, Yes, there is a factor depending on the number of decks remaining. It is called the floating advantage. However, this difference is so small, they don't make chips with a small enough denomination, to adjust your bet accordingly. Besides, you would look silly betting $79.995 instead of $80. This floating advantage would only come into effect when you got into the last remaining deck of the 8 deck shoe. Let me know when you find that cut.

Something to consider:
The dealer pulling a miracle play in a high count is all part of the game, get used to it. ANY and ALL of the time you either win a lot, or lose a lot, it will be in a high count. This only make sense, because that is when you have a lot of money bet.

It is almost impossible to lose $200 by losing 200 $1 hands in a row. It is very easy to lose $200 on one high count hand of $200 bet, which you have a 2% advantage on (you will lose the bet 49 times, compared to the 51 times you will win it).

That is why you need a really big bankroll to play this 8 deck game. You have to withstand the 49x$200 losses in order to reap the 51x$200 winnings.

Re: Welcome to the game
Posted by hammer on 18-Nov-2002 16:25:22 (#693)

and do not play more than one hand on 4 or more decks.
and do not play 8decks ever.

Re: High Count Loses
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2002 12:45:43 (#719)

As the number of decks decreases you can very gradually (VERY GRADUALLY) increase your bets at the same TC. Thus a TC of +4 can be used for a max bet with 1.5 decks remaining, when you might have a TC of +5 at the top of the shoe for a max bet. This is known as the "Floating Advantage", and is discussed at length in Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack, 2nd Ed.

--Mayor

Is "Crown Pontoon" Beatable?
Posted by Calib Vincent on 18-Nov-2002 14:02:58 (#687)

Crown Casino Melbourne has recently replaced all red chip bj tables with the new exciting game of "Crown Pontoon" (rules below). At first I thought this was just a shit game, a gimick to make the casino a stack of cash (all the tens removed!!!) under the guise of fun fun fun. But reading the article on Super Fun 21, I'm thinking... could this game be beatable after all???

Any ideas anyone?

Aim of the Game
Crown Pontoon is played like Blackjack. You play against the Dealer.
The major difference is that Crown Pontoon is played with decks of 48 cards with the four tens removed (ie. Ten of Hearts, Diamonds, Clubs and Spades).

As with Blackjack, the Dealer initially deals two cards to each Player and one card to him/herself. You then have the opportunity to draw extra cards and improve your total.

To win, generally your total must be greater than the Dealer's total without exceeding 21.

Like Blackjack, Pontoon is when the first two cards dealt to you are an Ace and a picture card (King, Queen, Jack).

However, with Crown Pontoon, there are numerous other ways of winning.

How to Play
Place your bet in one of the betting areas marked on the Crown Pontoon Table. These are generally referred to as 'Boxes'.

Up to three bets may be placed in one Box. The seated Player controls the box and decides to draw additional cards, split, double, stand surrender or forfeit.

The Dealer will call "No More Bets" and then begin to deal by drawing cards from the Dealing Shoe.

The Dealer deals one card face up to each Box containing a wager and deals a card to him/herself. A second card is then dealt to each of the Boxes.

Players now have the option of drawing another card, doubling, splitting or standing.

To indicate to the Dealer that you want another card, tap on the table with your finger. To indicate that you are standing, signal by using a horizontal waving motion of the hand over the table.

When all Players have completed their hand, the Dealer will draw his/her second and subsequent cards and settle all wagers depending on the result.

Payout Odds
Result Odds
Pontoon 3 to 2
5 cards totalling 21 3 to 2
6,7,8 mixed suits 3 to 2
7,7,7 mixed suits 3 to 2
6 cards totalling 21 2 to 1
6,7,8 same suits (except Spades) 2 to 1
7,7,7 same suits (except Spades) 2 to 1
7 or more cards totalling 21 3 to 1
6,7,8 all Spades 3 to 1
7,7,7 all Spades 3 to 1
All other winning wagers 1 to 1
Super Bonus
Super Bonus
7,7,7 same suit and dealer any 7 $1,000 if bet $5 to $24 $5,000 if bet $25 or greater
All other players who wagered on the round of play in which there is a Super Bonus winner shall receive a Bonus payment of $50.
NB: Super Bonus payouts are made in addition to the Payout Odds.

Unique Aspects of Crown Pontoon
* The Dealer must draw on a soft total of 17 (For example Ace and Six; Four, Ace and Two)
* All Player Pontoons beat Dealer Pontoon
* All Player totals of 21 beat Dealer totals of 2
* Higher odds are paid on some combinations of 21 (refer to payout schedule)
* A Super Bonus is paid for 7,7,7 same suit and Dealer any 7 (refer to the payout schedule). All other Players wagering at the table receive a Bonus payment of $50
* Players may double on any total on two or more cards even after splitting. NB An Ace in the first two cards of any double counts as 1 not 11
* Forfeits are permitted. A Player has the option, after doubling, to take back the double portion of the bet and forfeit the original bet
* Players may surrender half their original bet if the Dealer's first card is an Ace, King, Queen or Jack

Re: Is "Crown Pontoon" Beatable?
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 18-Nov-2002 14:15:13 (#688)

Yes, this game is actually single deck Spanish 21 -- with a few meaningless 'bonus' payoffs thrown in.
Dealer hits soft 17, European No-Hole Card (does the player lose all splits and doubles if the dealer draws an Ace for 21, or just the original bet?)

It can be beat, if they will allow you to vary your bet enough. Can you enter the game at any time, or do they make you wait for a shuffle? How do they shuffle?

You might want to search the web for Spanish 21, to find some hints on basic strategy for the game.

Re: Is "Crown Pontoon" Beatable?
Posted by Calib Vincent on 18-Nov-2002 14:23:19 (#689)

You can Wong in if you're discrete. DA2, DAS but only split to max. two hands. I guess any strategy would involve starting the running count low to account for the missing tens (starting RC of -12)?

How Many Decks?
Posted by phantom007 on 18-Nov-2002 21:36:11 (#704)

Is this game SD, DD, 6D?

Would make a big difference as to "beginning RC".

Re: How Many Decks?
Posted by Calib Vincent on 19-Nov-2002 04:38:49 (#712)

All other games at Crown are 8 decks, there is no exception for Pontoon. My assumption is that the only way to beat it would be to back count and wong in after recuperating a RC of 12. The chances of seeing a high count in this game, however, are no doubt significantly less.

I can confirm for Abraham, however, that you only lose your original bet on a dealer natural (and not doubles or splits) as in European BJ.

Sorry, I thought it was single deck.
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 19-Nov-2002 08:21:14 (#714)

They might call this 'Crown Pontoon' at the Crown casino, but everywhere else in the world, this game is called Spanish 21. Do a web search for 'Gamemaster' and you will find a site that has the basic strategy for this game, and tips on how to beat it.

KO overestimates advantage at the key count
Posted by koko on 18-Nov-2002 15:05:42 (#690)

I did a BE comparision in a Single deck with kO and AO11 with ACe side.
I did it for about 500 rounds . Sometimes when I am at keycount(RC =2) for KO
corresponding AO11 true count is either zero or minus whichh makes me think that KO overestimates advantage. Any thoughts on this or am I doing something wrong?

Re: KO overestimates advantage at the key count
Posted by phantom007 on 18-Nov-2002 21:29:47 (#703)

You are Right, in that you realized that you were Wrong, in which case, of course, you were Right. Comparing Indicies from Counting System A vs. B are rarely comparable/interchangeable...especially if trying to compare an Unbalanced to a Balanced Counting System. As you have discovered, a -2 in one system, might be +1 in another...whether either is "most correct" is rarely important in the short and even the medium-term.

I read a recent post that stated something to the effect that "One is better off playing a Simple System perfectly, than a Complex System with occasional errors. Since I M/L "learned to count" with the AOII, I am reluctant to change it...though I often think about it, especially in 6D games.

In Medicine, there is a blood test called the "Protime", aka PT...it is used to measure the "blood thinning" effect of a drug called Coumadin (warfarin, D-Con). The PT had one BIG problem...in the USA, the PT was calculated using Rabbit blood as Control...in the rest of the world, sheep blood was used. Due to the inherit difference in Clotting Factors present in the blood of various mammals, the problem was that:

"Anti-coagulation studies done in the USA could not be compared to

those performed everywhere else."

So, lots of good science was left to "educated speculation".

THEN COMES THE "INR" = International Ratio.

This "INR" corrects for species differences, and thus the INR, but not the PT used to calculate the INR, can be compared across geographic boundaries with little trepidation.

So, back to the real world, i.e., Blackjack, a similar INR could likely be calculated...however, efficiencies and correlations likely already accomplish the same.

Barfy's September Trip part-2
Posted by zengrifter on 18-Nov-2002 17:59:52 (#696)

From: BARFARKEL@aol.com
Date: Mon, 18 Nov 2002 13:46:25 EST
Subject: link to trip report part 2
To: zengrifter@yahoo.com

ZG:

Are you back from LV yet?

It'll be ok to post this link on CCCafe or Eliot's site if you wish

Here's the link to Las Vegas trip report Part 2 by LV Pro, along with the summary on the main page of the Blackjack Insider newsletter [issue 35].

"We begin issue #35 with the conclusion of LV Pro's latest attack on Sin City and his quest to achieve a $10K bankroll (you'll be surprised at the final tally). This is the conclusion of LV Pro's September trip that resulted in his biggest win ever. Highlights include how LV Pro used blackjack bonus coupons to his advantage; his encounter with a floor supervisor that caught him card counting; more playing adventures with his mentor, "The Grifter"; where LV Pro found a game that paid 2 to1 on blackjacks; how he used "cover parlay betting" to disguise his skills; and how he tried to avoid the "last day jinx" that has plagued him on previous trips. Did LV Pro win enough to reach his $10K playing bankroll goal?"

cheers! Barfarkel

---------------------

Note: LV Pro (aka Barfarkel) is a serious recreational player who started with basic strategy in 1996 and learned the Silver Fox count by the end of 1998. He has been counting since early 1999. After suffering some team losses in 2000 he started playing solo last year, starting with the $2K bankroll that he had left. He slowly built it up with red play over the past year to the present $9.5K level. He gets to LV at least 6 times a year and has some team experience. zg

------------------------------

Las Vegas Trip Report, September 2002� Part 2
by LV Pro, published on Thursday, November 14 2002

Note: For Part 1, see issue #34 of the Blackjack Insider Newsletter at www.casino.com/newsletter/blackjack/archive/).

With three full days left on my trip, I was up $575 after 20 hours of play. My first session of the day was at my hotel�s $10 DD game.

With my favorite dealer on the game again, I went through the first two shuffles without losing a single hand. He was dealing deep, at least 80%. This was the best pen I saw during the entire trip. Since the count didn�t fluctuate too positive or negative, I really never got a chance to put my top bets out. I used my �cover parlay� ploy and just kept chipping up after each win. To not do so while on such a noticeable streak would have been suspicious. I think I got up to maybe $55 as my high bet this session. I couldn�t help feeling a bit guilty and conspicuous, so I quit when my dealer finally went on break. After 45 minutes I colored out with a $350 win.

That�s the only trouble with counting cards. You�re always correlating your bet amounts to the count so when a big lucky streak happens to come along you don�t keep �doubling up� as most ploppies would, unless a rising count happens to coincide with the streak. If the count stays fairly neutral throughout and you�re winning every hand, a counter is more likely to bet the same amount each time. This doesn�t look quite right to the pit, nor does it feel right to most experienced gamblers. Over the long haul though, I know counters will win more than the progressionists who advocate only �up as you win� betting schemes and neglect the primary info of remaining deck(s) composition. Still I felt some regret at not having bet bigger during that incredible little run. Oh well. You can�t have it both ways.

continued here -
http://www.casino.com/blackjack/article.asp?id=1984

Debating "precision" indices -INTUITION!
Posted by zengrifter on 18-Nov-2002 19:19:31 (#699)

Previously I debated precision indices vs intuition with two 'Masters of BJ'- Karel Janacek and Don Schlesinger, here -
http://www.cardcounter.com/main.pl?noframes;read=161
In the current issue of e-businessTECH magazine 'Business_2.0' INTUITION! is revealed for the importand advantage-force that it yeilds in business and gaming, here -
http://cardcounter.com/nonBJ.pl

enjoy, zg

BJ in the Islands
Posted by Count Luckula on 18-Nov-2002 23:12:31 (#709)

I'm planning a trip to Aruba in a few weeks, and even though it's mainly for surf, sand and sun, it wouldn't hurt to play a little and hopefully pay for the trip. :)

I'm wondering if anybody has played there recently and/or has info on any good games there, and also what to expect in terms of rules, minimums, heat, comps, etc.

Thanks.

Re: BJ in the Islands
Posted by lifesabet on 19-Nov-2002 09:23:03 (#715)

I cannot speak for Aruba, but Ive been around other caribbean islands.

From what I've seen in other islands, the rules would make you laugh.
6 deck shoes or more. Cut card about half way through. One card to
the dealer so no peaks, all monies doubled and split will lose to a
dealer's natural. If you can find an advantage among this environment
the rest of the rules are fairly liberal. Dealers stand on all 17s,
you can resplit and double whenever. Bet ranges are quite wide because of
a lack of tables. Good possibility the staff has never seen a counter,
probably because a counter would not play.

Like I said, never been to Aruba, but this seems to be what Ive found
in every 3rd world where there is no competition across the street.
Enjoy the sun, surf and sand. Everyone I know who has been to Aruba
loved it.

-lifesabet

Playing with the Enemy
Posted by Abraham de Moivre on 19-Nov-2002 11:31:16 (#716)

So the when you sat down at the table the Pit Boss was standing 10 feet away, at his podium with his hand on his chin, and he hasn't moved since. He has no idea what you have been betting or spreading, and that is a good thing, because the count has gotten really juicy and you are slamming out the big bets (that dumb pit boss didn�t even look over when the dealer called out �checks play� on your bet last round � he has no idea who is betting the big money).

Of course we get the high count, dealer showing a 6 upcard, play. Either the dealer has a Ten in the hole, and draws a Ten and busts (what else could it be in such a high count?). Maybe it is the old, he actually has a 5 in the hole for 11, draws a 10 for 21, and beats everybody (what did you expect him to draw with such a high count?) How about the classic, he has the 5 in the hole for 11, an Ace gets in the way on his next draw for 12, and then he busts with the face card. (Only seen that one about 1000 times).

But no, this time it is really perverse. The Dealer has a 4 in the hole for 10. He draws a 3 for 13. Then he draws a 2 for 15. By now all the ploppies at the table are chanting �Bust�Bust�Bust�, or �Big Card�Big Card�Big Card�, and a loud cry of �MONKEY� from the Asian player. You are thinking, �Where in the hell are all these small cards coming from with such a high count?� Does it really matter if the dealer finally draws his big card and busts, or if he draws a little card and beats your soft 19 double down? You are in this for the long haul, the long run, an advantage player doesn�t care about the outcome of a single hand.

No, what you really care about is the count. With all those small cards coming out, the already high count is now outrageous. If you won the last hand, you are trying to calculate how much of your winnings to parlay on the next hand. If you lost, you are busily counting a stack of chips, trying to get the next big bet out. Meanwhile on a win, all the ploppies are busy high fiving each other, happily raking in another minimum bet, adding it to their small stacks of chips. If the dealer drew 21, they are still moaning and groaning with each other.

Notice the difference. Every turn of the card is a revelation to the ploppy. If the dealer busts with Ten, you think, �of course�. The ploppy is amazed. He is probably very interested in the outcome of the hand. If he is playing a progression, then it is the most important thing. He won�t know what to bet on the next hand until he knows if he has won or lost this one. If not an outright progression, he is still wanting to know if his �hot streak� is still going, or has it just ended, or has the �cold streak� turned, or whatever. At the very least, is the dealer hot, or is he busting? You don�t care about the hand. The count is what matters, and now you are placing your bet on this next round, based on the count.

Meanwhile, back to the podium with the pit boss. Of course I never looked over on the �checks play� call. Old Joe on third base never bets over $20. The Asian has gone thru his $800 buy-in and doesn�t have a $100 to bet until he buys in for more chips. No, the checks play call was because of that nerdy looking fellow, who hasn�t said a word, stares intently at the cards, and keeps nervously glancing over here at me. What�s this? The dealer made a 5 card 21, everybody is weeping, cussing, pulling their hair, except for that �checks play� guy. He seems to be doing nothing but carefully counting out a big stack of chips for his next bet.

I thought that guy looked like the type when he walked up to the table. He seemed to know his way around the blackjack game when he played that first hand. Thought I had a good player on my hands, now I am 100% SURE I do. Think I better walk on over and watch some action ....

Re: Playing with the Enemy
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Nov-2002 11:52:08 (#718)

You are fabulous, that is all I have to say!

Re: Playing with the Enemy
Posted by Wyrstle on 19-Nov-2002 16:29:51 (#728)

Mayor,

I should think that these posts with Abraham's permission really belong in the essays/archives section. Thay are just great.

Re: Playing with the Enemy

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