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Threads 451 to 480

Shuffle-Tracking Seminar
Posted by NewToTheGame on 08-Mar-2003 15:03:58 (#3394)

I wanted to throw a question to the board concerning the upcoming Shuffle-Tracking Classes on April 11-13 in Las Vegas. As a newbie breaking into the game, I've been practicing Hi-Lo (20 secs/deck) and am really enthusiastic about the strategy involved within the game. I have 2 1/2 months in my undergraduate life, and as such, don't have a substantial bankroll. I can't afford to play NEARLY as often as I want, but it's all good...I'm trying to soak up everything I can. I can afford the trip, but I'm questioning the necessity at this point in my life. I bought George C.'s manual and have practiced, but the truth is, I think I can elevate it to the next level with this class. I don't plan on making blackjack my career, but hopefully a profitable hobby ;)...

Do the costs justify the benefits? Any recommendations you can suggest would be appreciated. Thanks.

-NewToTheGame

The problem with S.T.
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Mar-2003 15:53:03 (#3399)

The big problem with S.T. is not learning how to do it, it is finding a trackable shuffle. This information is very carfully guarded, and the only way you will find one is if you do the leg work yourself -- or have a very good friend. Also, if you are a "little bit off" at S.T. you will get creamed, but a "little bit off" at counting and you are still playing with a big advantage.

Things to think about...

--Mayor

Re: The problem with S.T.
Posted by phantom007 on 08-Mar-2003 16:55:32 (#3401)

The Shuffle Trackers promote a 13% advantge.

I play at an average of 1.5% Advantage, then tip it away, and wonder why I am not ahead each year.

ST Players bet up during certain "plugs" in the shoe...this is fine...a deck rich in aces is GOOD in a ++ Count, but, IMHO, just increases risk in anegative count.

Fair being Fair, I wanted to take this Course, and WILL, in the near future, take same!

However, I suspect, that, when the Jury is in, CC'ing will usually be superior to ST'ing.

IMHO

phantom007.

Re: The problem with S.T.
Posted by The Mayor on 08-Mar-2003 17:18:11 (#3403)

ST is not a 13% advantage -- that is just not true. Try 3-5% in practice.

For example, if you knew the next card every time (were a perfect hole carder) then your edge is about 13%, but you couldn't make every correct play, so in practice your edge is about 10%.

Re: Shuffle-Tracking Seminar
Posted by Learning to count on 08-Mar-2003 19:22:49 (#3405)

The one thing your missing here is that SF is an advanced technique/art. You have to be an excellent card counter and you have to have experience in knowing the distinct shuffle techniques of the casinos. They all vary. I would not waste money on something you may not be ready for. I would get the AP thing down first then read about advanced techniques then take a class. The main strategy of SF is recognizing the plugs and watching thier placement. The idea is simple enough to realize but understanding takes time and actual use is a monumental task. If you have the cash to invest any class is good but at least have the prerequisites. LTC

Re: Shuffle-Tracking Seminar
Posted by ivy kid on 09-Mar-2003 03:16:46 (#3412)

Hey, 2 1/2 months in your undergraduate life? Me too! Congrats. Any plans? Job market sucks.

Re: Shuffle-Tracking Seminar
Posted by NewToTheGame on 09-Mar-2003 15:10:42 (#3423)

I'm looking to break into equity or equity derivatives trading. I have interviewed with I-banks, and now am speaking with several hedge funds. You're not kidding about this market being crappy, esp. in securities trading. The job search is taking up so much of my time, but persistence is key. Hopefully something works out...how about yourself?

Re: Shuffle-Tracking Seminar
Posted by ivy kid on 09-Mar-2003 17:02:45 (#3426)

Congrats on the interviews! I had interviews at management consulting firms last semester (I'm a humanities, non-econ major, but I have experience running a million $ business), but no luck. It was really frustrating to devote so much time to networking, resumes, cover letters, transcripts, suit jackets and other bullshit, so this semester, I am merely taking classes, having fun, and paying little attention to the future. I figure if I don't have a job come summer, I'll travel, get a BS job for a bit, and then try to apply for real jobs in mid-late summer.

Do you have any good leads at any i-banking firms? Any offers? It's really scary out there. Imagine if you WERE working at Goldman... you would either a)have been layed off or b)not gotten your bonus, which really kills the overall salary.

AOII
Posted by BillyJoe on 08-Mar-2003 22:27:47 (#3408)

Just wondering if anyone here uses or has used the AOII system and how they liked it or how it compared to other systems theyve used....and another question to The Mayor...have you been to Chumash Casino lately and if you have how is the blackjack there? I heard all they have is 6 deck...

Thanks

Re: AOII
Posted by Sonny on 09-Mar-2003 14:42:10 (#3422)

For the past 2 years I have been using HiOpt II, which is almost the same as AOII. I started out with the HiOpt I, but soon found that I was ready to move up to a level 2 count. I think it's a great system, and it is definately right for me.

The biggest factor in chosing a counting system is what will work best for you personally. If you will be playing mostly shoe games, you should think about an ace-inclusive count like Zen. If you will be playing mostly pitch games, you should pick a system with a good PE, like AOII or HiOpt II. If you have trouble with level 2 counts, stick to Hi-Low and use your extra brain power for side counts or more indices. If you can't get the hang of TC conversions, use an unbalanced count like KO or Red 7. There's a count system out there for every type of player, you just need to find yours. What works for me might not work for you.

My advice is to start with something simple and work your way up. If you can successfully use Hi-Low or HiOpt I, then you can move up to AOII and start learning indices. After enough practice, you will find yourself doing it automatically. Once it becomes automatic, you can start adding more indices, or you can play faster, or add some other technique to your card counting arsenal (like sequencing or shuffle tracking). The most important thing is to start with a solid base that you can build on. Most players with change their system once or twice throughout their career. Who knows, maybe I'll be using AOII next week!

As for Chumash, I went there a few times last year. They have only 6 deck games with H17 DA2 and DAS. The house edge is about 0.55%, but the penetration varies so you may have to look for a decent table. Of course, I went on weekend nights so the place was packed. Maybe you'd have better luck during the week.

Good luck!

-Sonny-

Expected win
Posted by Learner on 08-Mar-2003 22:42:52 (#3409)

I have been studying blackjack and card counting for some time now and know I have an advantage over the casino.
Does anyone know how I can calculate my expected win based on my play, rules of casino and betting amounts.
I am thinking there would be some software out there and I would be prepared to pay for it if that is the only way to find out this info.
Much appreciated.

Re: Expected win
Posted by Cyrano on 09-Mar-2003 06:02:16 (#3416)

You should go purchase Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger. There's a chapter that shows you the EV for certain games based on certain popular counting systems. You might also want to check out this site: http://www.bjstats.com/bjbr.asp

There are 2 software packages you can buy that can meet your needs: the first one is Casino Verite's package www.qfit.com; the other one is Statistical Blackjack Analyzer www.bj21.com

BJ for Blood
Posted by Cyrano on 08-Mar-2003 22:58:19 (#3410)

I was reading in BJ for Blood, Bryce Carlson felt that a 1-2 spread was enough to beat the 1D game. and 1-4 was enough to beat the 2D game. This seems a little off, especially for red/green chip level. Maybe in the black chip level this is enough. Would someone like to elaborate? First, is 1-2 enough to make a positive ROI? Second, is 1-2 enough to give you a SUFFICIENT ROI or is the amount less than minimum wage? Does anybody here use the Omega count and if so, what's been your experience with it? Thanks.

I have...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Mar-2003 00:57:35 (#3411)

...some data on flat-betting and 1-2 AOII somewhere, I'll have to see if I can find it. I do have some figures for the system I am currently upgrading to, which is slightly more powerful than AOII. With 4 rounds to 2, H17, DOA, no T splits, my system produces a .40% ROI with a 1-2 spread and a 10% RoR. This is very impressive, and believe it or not, has a higher ROI than a typical system would at a 4.5/6 game, spreading 1-10 and wonging out.

Of course you need to use about 200 indices to see these results, and this is without any cover (which won't be a real factor at the red level anyway), but you get the idea. You really shouldn't even think about executing this scheme if you are employing a system with anything less than an excellent PE.

ANS

Re: I have...
Posted by Cyrano on 09-Mar-2003 05:54:35 (#3415)

ANS,

So what you're suggesting is, I should stick to a system with high PE (as opposed to high BC) and learn more index numbers? I'm actually a little surprised at the results you mentioned on the 6D game, since I was expecting a high PE would perform a little worse than high BC. what's considered excellent PE? 90+? Also, are you using a level 2 count?

slight misunderstanding...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 09-Mar-2003 07:42:34 (#3417)

"So what you're suggesting is, I should stick to a system with high PE (as opposed to high BC) and learn more index numbers?"

C, I wasn't recommending this approach in general, I was merely speaking of the particular case of single deck with a moderate spread.

"I'm actually a little surprised at the results you mentioned on the 6D game, since I was expecting a high PE would perform a little worse than high BC."

Re-read what I said, I think you misunderstood. The particular "typical system" I was referring to has the exact same BC as my system, but an inferior PE.

"...what's considered excellent PE? 90+?"

To say the least, yes .90+ is an excellent PE. More realistically, I consider anything over .58 good, and over .65 excellent. Of course it matters how the PE figure was calc'd, but that's another matter altogether, just use the figures you see as rough guidelines.

"Also, are you using a level 2 count?"

No, I don't believe the jump to level II is worth it (JMO). I use a level I system w/ Ace sidecount.

ANS

I see...
Posted by Cyrano on 09-Mar-2003 17:01:39 (#3425)

Well, I play much more pitch games than shoe games, so it might be well worth my time to learn more index numbers and change to a better PE count. It seems, though, 99% of the time, the TC doesn't go above or below 10 and all of my index #'s fall in that category (about 50 total deviations). There's actually been only one instance where the count was +12 (in the middle of a deal) and it fell back down to a +8 before I could capitalize on it. What's been your experience? Should I go up to +/- 15?

Entry from Mindplay in our guestbook
Posted by The Mayor on 09-Mar-2003 16:55:18 (#3424)

Name: Richard Soltys (Homepage)
Country: USA Date: Fri Mar 7 02:04:12 2003
Comment: Richard Soltys, CEO MindPlay LLC

Go to the guestbook, and click on his name, and an email address comes up. Click on the Homepage link and the Mindplay homepage comes up.

If you have an opinion about his products, explicitly the blackjack equipment, I encourage you to write him a personal letter with you thoughts on it.

Thanks in advance!

--Mayor

Troll
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Mar-2003 08:50:06 (#3428)

Obviously a troll trying to make this board look worthy of a sweep by MP21. Relax. Don't send anything to this guy, or you will get noticed. MP21 is looking for certain things and reports them. You can learn to use that to your advantage, ie comps. I've had PB's miss lots of my action and never got comped for it. Now they have no excuse. Anyone with an IQ of 120 or better can figure out a way to fudge this system.

Can anyone tell me the SD a person is experiencing if they have an IQ of 139? grin

Re: Troll
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Mar-2003 09:25:54 (#3432)

I concur on the troll thing.

As for your IQ, it is just a number and represents very little about your ability to function in the world in an interesting and creative way.

A friend of mine with a 192 IQ joined the revolutionary guard in El Savador in the 80's and spent 10 years there.

A friend of mine with an IQ in the 160's started taking LSD when he was in 4-th grade, and even though he was writing college level essay's at age 10, today he lives in Hawaii and grows pot.

So consider yourself blessed if you are both intelligent and manage a productive and interesting life. But I would rather have the life than the points any day.

And yes, I know my number, and no, I'm not saying.

--Mayor

Re: Troll
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Mar-2003 09:46:16 (#3433)

...And just to further the intelligence stats most insane people have very high IQ's. The fictional character Hannibal Lector is an example of such a personality. I know a lot of highly inetelligent people who are ahead of the game. They seem to have a sixth sense for success. Then I know a few who are socially retartded and lack any common sense.

As far as the mindplay thing f*#@K em. Eventually Blackjack will be a joke in the casino world and it could provide for a loss for the casino corporations. It has happened before and then they will offer good games. I believ in the theory of cyclical historical movement as mans evolves. The one thing that has held true is truth. It will all change and end up the same.

Re: Troll
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Mar-2003 11:58:41 (#3435)

Basically a self unsubstantiating? joke. The IQ/SD thing. It shows you how they can both be useless to those living in the here and now where all bets are placed.

Re: Troll
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 10-Mar-2003 18:57:45 (#3437)

I think big IQ's are like big Penis's all the people saying how useless they are have small ones.

iq
Posted by hammer on 10-Mar-2003 20:22:25 (#3438)

test your wits on the parctice tests,,or if can join the gang..

mensa.org

good times to at the meetings.

Re: Troll
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Mar-2003 21:00:12 (#3439)

I find them both of little practical use. My IQ, and big penis. Now don't make me take a picture of it to prove it to you. How about my book as a backdrop so you can tell it's allllllllllllllllllllllllllllll mine? hahahahaha!!

A bud of mine useta tell me "all it's good for now is peein outa." IQ or truth?

"Count your blessings, name them one by one......."

Somehow, I doub't that is the reason that song was written! still laughing.....

Rob

First-ever trip report, and Qs for the pros
Posted by Lawschooligan on 10-Mar-2003 01:31:34 (#3427)

northern nevada remembrances

I wanted to post my first trip report and get some advice.

So with about 3 months of practice under my belt and a couple of prior trips w/ mixed results, my two newbie counter buddies and I drove up to northern nevada last week, mid-week. From the last trip, I had a free room at casino. Arrived around 10 pm, checked in, 2 hours on SD with decent pen, spreading 5-25. Up 40 units between us.

Then to casino 2/casino 3/casino 4 and up another 30 units. Then to another casino in the wee hours and down at least 20 units, but with comped breakfast. For cover and to rest our brains we played craps and lost another 10 units on that ridiculous game. Interestingly, at this casino we experienced NO heat and spread with abandon -- even with all three of us alone at the same table! One awesome dealer who dealt down to no more than 10 cards, and once literally to the last card. I'd never seen that before. Also, one craps dealer who kept asking if I liked this one cocktail waitress in this creepy leering way. I think he might have been trying to pimp her, which is weird since I'm obviously a low roller.

Back to the first casino for sleep and then another hour, up 20 units. Some stares from the critters. Then back to school in time for class. Overall, we cleared over $700 between us, and no one lost.

Questions:

1. How bad is it to play at the same table as your counter friends? To me, it looks pretty suspicious when each of us suddenly goes from low to high.

2. How can I convince my friend who had a lucky streak on his first trip not to overbet his wad? He was going up to $50, and his bankroll is no more than 1k.

3. We used our real names at all these places. Should we pick one place to flat bet for comps and then go anonymous for AP at other places? How do you folks swing the comps v. advantage play issue?

4. Going to southern nevada for first time in 2 weeks. Recommendations on the strip? downtown?

Thanks all!

Re: First-ever trip report, and Qs for the pros
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 10-Mar-2003 09:14:13 (#3430)

Hey! Glad you did so well.

1. How bad is it to play at the same table as your counter friends? To me, it looks pretty suspicious when each of us suddenly goes from low to high.

Not good.

2. How can I convince my friend who had a lucky streak on his first trip not to overbet his wad? He was going up to $50, and his bankroll is no more than 1k.

You can't. It seems you have already tried, so let nature take its course, then hit him the the I told you so later.

3. We used our real names at all these places. Should we pick one place to flat bet for comps and then go anonymous for AP at other places? How do you folks swing the comps v. advantage play issue?

With $50 bets don't worry about that until you get heat. The become an "under cover brotha"

4. Going to Vegas for first time in 2 weeks. Recommendations on the strip? downtown?

Do a search and you'll find the cheese on where to play.

Re: First-ever trip report, and Qs for the pros
Posted by The Mayor on 10-Mar-2003 10:29:44 (#3434)

>Then to Nugget/Silver Club/Rail City and up another 30 units. Then to Atlantis in the wee hours and down at least 20 units, but with comped breakfast. For cover and to rest our brains we played craps and lost another 10 units on that ridiculous game. Interestingly, at Atlantis experienced NO heat and spread with abandon -- even with all three of us alone at the same table! One awesome turkish dealer who dealt down to no more than 10 cards, and once literally to the last card. I'd never seen that before. Also, one craps dealer who kept asking if I liked this one (hot, russian) cocktail waitress in this creepy leering way. I think he might have been trying to pimp her, which is weird since I'm obviously a low roller.

First rule of TR's -- don't give away explicit information about casinos, or when you played there. Remember, there are many spies!

>Back to btown for sleep and then another hour, up 20 units. Some stares from > Overall, we cleared over $700 between us, and no one lost.

If you won some money, that's great, but really just luck over such a short trip. It is a good thing, because a big loss and your team might have had a really bad time.

>Questions:

>1. How bad is it to play at the same table as your counter friends?

Probably about 5-th in the all-time counter sin list. Above it are things like saying "I am a counter" to the pit boss.

>2. How can I convince my friend who had a lucky streak on his first trip not to overbet his wad?

Don't try and control your friends. It is their life and their money. Suggest good books, but if your friend bet $50, then it is time to ditch him as a team mate until he learns a thing or two.

>3. We used our real names at all these places. Should we pick one place to flat bet for comps and then go anonymous for AP at other places? How do you folks swing the comps v. advantage play issue?

I choose 2 or 3 casinos and play just for comps, everywhere else I am anonymous. At the comp casinos, I don't count agressively (or much at all) and play other games like SF-21, craps, and video poker. A little investment can be worth a TON of comps value.

>4. Going to Vegas for first time in 2 weeks. Recommendations on the strip? downtown?

At your level of play, the strip doesn't offer much. If your max bet is $25, stay downtown. If you want a great SD game, try the Western and LVC. Just don't spread much, even when your max is $25, they watch everyone.

Good luck to you!

And by the way, I am not a pro, but I hope my answers had value anyway!

--Mayor

Re: First-ever trip report, and Qs for the pros
Posted by Imaya on 14-Mar-2003 09:43:18 (#3467)

Interesting post and replies....BUT I don't understand something. We are all here understanding what probabilities are right ? So how can you only think about wasting some money in crap, poker etc ? Maybe I'm lucky because I'm the oposite of gambling...I hate casinos...basicly, I'm a kind of bohemian. Maybe it's why I can easily take their money away and have no discipline problems like having "feeling" while playing.

mindplay21
Posted by Learning to count on 10-Mar-2003 21:19:04 (#3440)

Just saw the mind play system on the travel channel secrets show. They promoted the system table and all as a help for the dealer. They showed how it checks the cards for authenticity and how it can tell what bets are on the table. No mention of its full capabilities. The interviewed dealers said dumb things like "oh the players will love it', "its fun"! It was being tested at the Vegas Hilton casino. They further promoted it like a new slot machine. If you are out there MP21. I hope you hurt the ploppies with your monster that they flee. So you can go bankrupt! LTC

Re: mindplay21
Posted by BillyJoe on 10-Mar-2003 21:27:21 (#3441)

Just saw that show too....I couldnt believe they didnt mention how easy it would be to catch counters by logging every fluctuation in bets....I doubt it will catch on...most people who get comps on tables like to bet the minimum while the boss isnt watching and then when he is bet alot so they get bigger comps while betting less overall...with the new system they couldnt do that anymore.

Give the Mojo to Mindplay21 Baby, Yeah!!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 11-Mar-2003 07:51:38 (#3442)

Righton bro. Like I said in my Troll post below, they can't miss all of the times you have black out because it gets recorded by the program. If you are a counter the PB will normally see more small bets than large, and you can outsmart the people that look at the data, or the program for that matter, and still count your way up the stairway to heaven and get comped PROPERLY for it now.

This guy could teach us a thing or two *LINK*
Posted by GameBoy on 11-Mar-2003 13:50:54 (#3443)

Looking for a laugh?

Look at this poor bastard. I still don't know if this guy is kidding (I hope so) or if he is actually serious.
You be the judge.

Re: This guy could teach us a thing or two
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Mar-2003 13:55:31 (#3444)

A fabulous site, obviously a joke.

Thanks,

--Mayor

Laugh and the casino lauhgs with you
Posted by BradRod on 13-Mar-2003 05:57:53 (#3452)

I've played with people that must have read this article and taken it seriously.

Pro BJ Player on Weakest Link Last Night?
Posted by SammyBoy on 11-Mar-2003 14:56:52 (#3445)

There was a player on the Weakest Link last night by the name of Todd (I think) that said he was a Professional Blackjack Player. Does anyone know who he may have been? After appearing on that show I would guess he will soon be forced into early retirement.

Stating the obvious
Posted by The Mayor on 11-Mar-2003 15:19:13 (#3446)

Anyone who would state in public, showing their face, that they are a professional blackjack player, obviously is not.

John Patrick would do the same, for example.

Re: Pro BJ Player on Weakest Link Last Night?
Posted by Learning to count on 12-Mar-2003 06:38:30 (#3448)

I have met a lot of rich people that play Blackjack for a living who are not counters. They have so much f*%$#ng money that they dont work and they can afford to lose a lot each year. They call themselves professional gamblers. That guy was either retiring or a ploppy fool.

Re: Pro BJ Player on Weakest Link Last Night?
Posted by Cyrano on 12-Mar-2003 06:47:38 (#3449)

I'd bet he was eliminated pretty early.

Re: Pro BJ Player on Weakest Link Last Night?
Posted by SammyBoy on 12-Mar-2003 22:23:18 (#3450)

He was the first one eliminated. How did you know?

Re: Pro BJ Player on Weakest Link Last Night?
Posted by Cyrano on 13-Mar-2003 04:12:19 (#3451)

The stupidity shone through--can't imagine anybody else being dumber.

LSR strategy Qs
Posted by Running Count on 13-Mar-2003 13:06:25 (#3453)

Hello out there in counter land...

So I'm off soon to LV for the 1st time. Planning to do a lot of gawking and touristy oohs and aahs, spread my pitiful reds in the downtown SD joints, and wong my way into some positive shoes on the strip.

The first two I can handle (SD is what I learned on), but I'm new to the whole LV 6deckers thing. I looked up the 4 BS LSR changes, and saw some posts on the Fab4 LSR variations. They said:

14 vs 10 surr. at 3
15 vs 9 surr. at 2
15 vs 10 surr. at 0
15 vs A surr. at 1

My Qs are: (1) is this right? (2) does this mean surr when the count is at or ABOVE or BELOW this number? I assume above, since the numbers make sense that way, but just want to make sure.

Any other advice for a counter new to LV 6deck rules? Recommend a good place w/ $5 mins to start out?

Thanks,

Running Count

p.s. Thanks to Mgmt for editing my previous (too much info) post. I'm registered, now!

Re: LSR strategy Qs
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Mar-2003 18:43:37 (#3455)

>14 vs 10 surr. at 3
15 vs 9 surr. at 2
15 vs 10 surr. at 0
15 vs A surr. at 1

>My Qs are: (1) is this right?

The 15 vs. A and 14 vs. A numbers vary whether the game is H17 or S17, and knowing the numbers for both is important. The numbers look close enough. Remember though to always surrender 16 vs. T, A, and 16 vs. 9 at 0.

>(2) does this mean surr when the count is at or ABOVE or BELOW this number?

Above

>Any other advice for a counter new to LV 6deck rules?

Play two hands if possible. Spread like a fiend if you are playing all, but don't overbet your bankroll. I think you said your max bet is $25, in which case you need to leave tables that have a negative count.

>Recommend a good place w/ $5 mins to start out?

The MGM has lots of playable $5 games, decent games can be found at many other places on the strip, Flamingo also has $5 games later in the day. Downtown, the Golden Nugget has $5 games with LSR.

--Mayor

Thanks! and 1 more...
Posted by Running Count on 14-Mar-2003 12:05:21 (#3469)

I'm getting into LV next Sunday in time for the 2nd round march madness games. any recs on a good sports book near the center strip with comfortable (not too smokey) surroundings to place a small bet, sit, drink, and watch Bball?

Re: Thanks! and 1 more...
Posted by The Mayor on 14-Mar-2003 13:41:55 (#3471)

Palms is very nice. On Flamingo, west of the Strip 1 mile.

Mandalay Bay
Posted by SammyBoy on 14-Mar-2003 14:32:13 (#3473)

Had a real nice sports book when I was there a few years ago.

Re: LSR strategy Qs
Posted by CanKen on 14-Mar-2003 18:32:50 (#3478)

Hi Mayor, glad to see you still have time to participate here.
In your above post you recommend playing two hands in shoe games. I think I understand the benefits of this when you have an advantage, but are you saying that it is good strategy off the top when you are at a disadvantage?
What about the case where the rules say you have to bet twice the minimum on each if you play two spots?

Attributes of a counter
Posted by ZOD on 13-Mar-2003 18:41:25 (#3454)

This question came up in a discussion last weekend: What is the most important attribute of a successful advantage player? Some of the answers suggested were disicpline, caution, acting ability, mathematical apptitude, and an even temperament, among others. Any other ideas?
ZOD

Re: Attributes of a counter
Posted by The Mayor on 13-Mar-2003 18:45:55 (#3456)

>This question came up in a discussion last weekend: What is the most important attribute of a successful advantage player? Some of the answers suggested were disicpline, caution, acting ability, mathematical apptitude, and an even temperament, among others. Any other ideas?

*The ability to go without sleep and still be rational.
*Not being married.
*Large initial bankroll.
*Not have a compulsive personality.
*Enjoy long periods of solitude.
*Be forgiving and patient.

Re: Attributes of a counter
Posted by Felix Rue-de-Guerre on 13-Mar-2003 20:06:32 (#3457)

Beauty and truth

... er... wait

Re: Attributes of a counter
Posted by Learning to count on 13-Mar-2003 20:50:55 (#3458)

raats of ruck!

The #1 Answer is:
Posted by phantom007 on 14-Mar-2003 00:42:13 (#3460)

BANKROLL!

phantom007.

Re: Attributes of a counter
Posted by Alexander Mundy on 13-Mar-2003 22:14:14 (#3459)

The ability to win or lose substantial sums of money over long periods of time and still maintain a degree of emotional equanimity

Most Important Attribute
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Mar-2003 08:31:27 (#3463)

"What is the most important attribute of a successful advantage player?"

I feel that the most important attribute is the ability to find the highest possible expect value for each "play."

Expected value is corelated with the minimum amount of risk and the maximum amount of the reward of each and every bet.

Signs of a counter
Posted by Coug It on 14-Mar-2003 01:11:01 (#3461)

If you are a pit-boss, what is the mental checklist you go through to determine if a player is a threat to the house?

Re: Signs of a counter
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Mar-2003 08:41:46 (#3464)

Does this person ever bet big?
If they do, is it in short spurts?
Are they looking at each card?
Can they play properly?
Do they seem nervous when I talk to them?

Then I walk up behind the dealer and whisper
in his ear "cc shuffle up" and hope you move on.
If I can handle you without getting anyone else
involved I am more likely to get promoted.
"Nothing ever happens of Harry's shift"

If I'm a dealer that wants to become a PB
I'd have you spoted and would shuffle up on
you without my PB whispering in my ear. In
fact, I can make sure you hardly ever see an
A at my table when it is hand dealt.

Re: Signs for ROB
Posted by hammer on 14-Mar-2003 17:06:52 (#3477)

a little too much information here.,

Re: Signs of a counter
Posted by Steve Langely on 25-Apr-2003 19:01:37 (#3931)

What's an "A" ?

An Ace *NM*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 26-Apr-2003 23:28:08 (#3941)

Probability question
Posted by Rutager on 14-Mar-2003 05:03:50 (#3462)

While watching a friend of mine losing his money at a lousy casino game I'd never play because it was negative expectation, my mind started to wander and I came up with a simple probability question that I can't quite figure out. Maybe some of the math experts on this board can answer this question for me.

Let's say you are playing a fair game with a casino (ie- If you bet a dollar, you have an even chance of winning a dollar or losing a dollar.) Say your bankroll is only 1 dollar (1 bet) to start out. Clearly, if you played this game forever, you would eventually go broke. My question is what is the expected number of rounds you'd have to play before you go broke? I suspect it is infinite, but I cannot quite prove why. Any ideas? Just curious.

-Rutager

Re: Probability question
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Mar-2003 09:11:21 (#3465)

"my mind started to wander" That was your first mistake! grin I'm sure one of the math geniuses here can answer your question with a formula. Why don't you take a crack at solving your own problem with the math you already know??

50% on the first play
25% if there is a second play
Now we either have 3 units or 1
If 3 then it is 12.5%
If 1 it's 50%

We should be using the probability to help us decide what to do. The answer to that you already have.......don't play with your own money.

Now, if a tree falls in a forest........

Re: Probability question
Posted by Imaya on 14-Mar-2003 09:30:26 (#3466)

Well as I see, you fear is to be broke right ? I will explain quickly the way I learned. By the way, my teacher is Mr. Brown so if anybody, knows him, let me know, I would like to get news from him. Ok so the minimum requirement is to get 500 times the minimum bet. Where I play it's 5$ so i'm going in with 2500$. I NEVER put more than 5% of my bankroll on one hand. Basicly, I went 37 times (8hours shift) in casinos and the results: down:0 times even:2 times up:35times. I was about 25K over last year...this is not bad for a rookie. I know the probabilities tell me that I SHOULD went down few times but for now, I cross my fingers :)

Re: Probability question
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Mar-2003 09:09:31 (#3489)

The longer you play the more likely your outcome represent the actual EV of the game you are playing, with or without your fingers crossed. A 1% edge.

Re: Probability question
Posted by The Mayor on 14-Mar-2003 10:13:08 (#3468)

Although I don't recall the answer, this is known as the Gambler's ruin paradox. If your bankroll is finite and the casino's is infinite, and you flat bet, then even in a fair game (100% return), you will go broke. The over/under for this is something that is solved using a type of mathematics known as a Markov Process, which is a type of discrete differential equation.

I wish I could do better. For now, let's just say, it is 100% certain you will go broke. Hence the "Gambler's Ruin" paradox.

--Mayor

Re: Probability question
Posted by Rutager on 14-Mar-2003 15:35:07 (#3474)

I am somewhat familiar with Markov Chains. However, I have no idea how to handle markov chains with infinite states. But I'm sure you know far more than I.

And to clarify, I am not saying I want to play an even money game. I'm just curious because my question 'what is the expected number of rounds before going broke' seems to be simple, but I cannot solve it.

Rutager

"Gambler's Ruin" formulas...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 14-Mar-2003 12:27:56 (#3470)

E(n) = expected number of plays before ruin or win limit
n = number of plays
z = initial capital
a = desired final capital (a > z, z-a is the desired win)
p = probability of a win
q = probability of a loss
r = probability of a tie

For an even game (p = q) use:

z(a-z)
-------- = E(n)
1 - r

For an infinite win limit (a), where p < q, use:

z
------------ = E(n)
(q-p)(1-r)

For an infinite win limit (a), where p = q:

E(n) = infinity

ANS

Theoretically Speaking
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 14-Mar-2003 14:19:10 (#3472)

Is your formula saying he will play for an infinity with one unit? I think not. How many units (standard deviations) will it take to protect the player from RoR and allow him to play forever, since we know that with 1 unit he is faced with imminent destruction?

cough, cough, MathProf, cough ;>

Re: "Gambler's Ruin" formulas...
Posted by Rutager on 14-Mar-2003 15:46:20 (#3475)

Thanks for you help.

From the equation you gave:

z(a-z)
-------- = E(n)
1 - r

It is clear that as a-->infinity, E(n) --> infinity. Which seems to support my 'guess' that the expected number of steps before going broke is infinite. This seems very counterintuitive(insert card counter/counterintuitive joke here).

But how did you come up with that formula? Also, how did you you come up with the formula for p < q ?

I wish I still had all my college math textbooks right about now.

Rutager

Re: "Gambler's Ruin" formulas...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 15-Mar-2003 21:30:47 (#3482)

"It is clear that as a-->infinity, E(n) --> infinity. Which seems to support my 'guess' that the expected number of steps before going broke is infinite. This seems very counterintuitive..."

You're right, this may seem counterintuitive to some. What needs to be realized is that the formula provides the *average* expected time to ruin or win limit...an average that obviously has variance. Once this is understood the results become quite intuitive.

"But how did you come up with that formula? Also, how did you you come up with the formula for p < q ?"

The formulas are found in Epstein's "Theory of Gambling & Statistical Logic", which is highly recommended for any gaming theorist.

"I wish I still had all my college math textbooks right about now."

Check out Epstein's book, Griffin's "Theory of Blackjack", and the archives at BJMath.com, I've found just about everything I've ever needed in these sources.

ANS

Theory of Relativity
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Mar-2003 09:18:08 (#3490)

Is a wonderful theory, but too few people will ever need to understand it. If you actually think that you can start off with one unit and play a 50/50 game forever, test the theory, and report your results. I'm sure you will report back that the first time I did it it took x tries to lose my one unit,

the second time it took me x tries
the third time it took me x tries
the fourth time it took me x tries
the fifth time it took me x tries

and you will get an infinite # of failures of the theory before the theoretically possible infinity takes place.

Re: "Gambler's Ruin" formulas...
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Mar-2003 10:22:59 (#3481)

And in general the question is one of the expected return time for a random walk. As they say "you can never go home again."

Thanks for posting the details.

--Mayor

Coupons
Posted by Big Cowboy on 14-Mar-2003 16:21:07 (#3476)

Every once in awhile when there's not much else to watch on TV, I'll watch the Travel Channel when they profile Las Vegas. I do see time given to the virtues of using coupons. When I looked to see what the coupons are for, it does not appear to me that coupons really offer a generous value--certainly not enough to make the casinos quake at their use. I'm just wondering if others explicitly use coupons regularly and also curious to find out what are the best offers out there. Just wondering. I thank you for your comments.

Couponomy...
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 15-Mar-2003 22:08:13 (#3483)

Couponomy is a very big thing, with a large number of practicioners found in the LV area. Though its not nearly as profitable as it once was, even just last year, there is still a decent amount of money to be made and its the only way to go (onland) for someone with an extremely limited bankroll.

The main sources for casino coupons are the Las Vegas Advisor, Casino Player, Casino Perks, The American Casino Guide, and the funbooks found at many gaming properties, but there are coupons to be found EVERYwhere in LV. Hardcore couponeros are also known to utilize trading rings where the value of a single coupon book can be maximized by exchanges between one another.

Many of the coups are indeed free money, but that does not mean they are easy money. Some coupons are restricted to a one per day limit, some once a month, some once a lifetime. Judicial timing of your play to coincide with different pit shifts is one way to maximize potential, but you can see how this can be a hassle. You need to be able to play at all different times, as well as capable of getting to and from the many different properties scattered throughout the city as well as those on the outskirts of town. Transportation is obviously mandatory to realize the full potential of couponomy. Its also easy to see how any kind of longevity is not really practical.

Despite the drawbacks, it is still the onland option of choice for those who, for one reason or another, are on a shoestring bankroll and don't consider the "w" word an option. Even without transportation, I believe its very reasonable to expect to make at least $200/week, and perhaps as much as $500/week with transportation if the player wasn't at all concerned with overexposure.

ANS

Re: Couponomy...
Posted by Running Count on 16-Mar-2003 14:46:24 (#3484)

Other than LV Advisor and the sites that sell coupon books, are there sources online or off that list the good word on free coupons? I found, for instance, a $5 matchplay coupon for the Frontier online, but google searches didn't pull up much else that was helpful.

> Despite the drawbacks, it is still the onland option of choice for those
> who, for one reason or another, are on a shoestring bankroll

That's me! =) Ah, the life of a grad student: Papa needs a fall semester.

p.s. I was playing TX holdum w/ friends last night and couldn't resist trying to double down the 4-7 I was dealt. Too much blackjack.

Welcome Big Cowboy
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Mar-2003 08:28:56 (#3486)

Like that 10 gallon hat ther pardner! grin Coupies can give you a decent edge over the onland casino, but nothing near what the online "coupons" can give you. This is why Adam N Subtractum specifically mentioned "onland." I have the biggest online blackjack team that is specifically devoted to playing pure coupons, or bonuses as they are called online. There is no travel required, just a few minutes to download a casino then travel by mouse to the next site. Many of my team members started off with a small deposit of $100, got that all back on their credit card, and rolled that initial win into the thousands in a period of months all on spare time from home. To top that all off, anyone that uses the coupons that I give them will get 50% of the $$ the casino gives me for sending them a new player. You can play at any casino, but I make it worth our while to play together as a team. We are making blackjack history.

Hi!
Posted by wong out on 15-Mar-2003 09:29:38 (#3479)

Hi Board!

This is my first post and I am testing to make sure that I have the proccedure down right. FYI - I have been playing part time a bit over 10yrs and have been reasonably happy with my play/results. I am looking forward to contribute when I think that I have something to say that matters in the thread. I have lurked on the site for awhile and always liked the format particularly the monthly note from elliot.

good luck to all and hope to have some great threads!

wong out

Re: Hi!
Posted by The Mayor on 15-Mar-2003 10:21:53 (#3480)

Greetings! It is nice to hear your voice here. I am interested in knowing more about you, so anything you want to say is welcome. But, in particular, you played for 10 years. Do you count? What system? What part of the world? You know... the usual "get to know you" kind of questions.

As for my podium, thanks for those kinds words. I am glad to know someone is reading it!

--Mayor

Re: Hi!
Posted by Wong Out on 03-Apr-2003 21:22:09 (#3643)

Mayor:

Sorry didnt see your response. I have been playing abit over 10 years; fooled around with some different counts. Switched to Zen after reading Uston on BJ; not that the count system matters much. Used to play lots of hand helds now play mostly shoes. Like to spread high and take the backoffs as they come. Play is limited to the houses that take high action well but will play anywhere that there is a good game (provided its safe - I'm not playing Russia or Cairo).

The monthly columns are well written, informative and interesting. But I have to admit (I am not trying to start a jihad in the Mayor household) my favorite was the article written by your better half....

Shoving off soon!
Posted by Learning to count on 17-Mar-2003 08:09:17 (#3485)

Hey guys anyone been a Royal Carribean Cruise before. The mexican riviera looks good or Alaska. I was wondering if anyone could fill me in on the conditions in thier casinos and BlakcJack?

Re: Shoving off soon!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Mar-2003 08:33:52 (#3488)

Usually nothing special. 6 or 8 deck with DAS DOA S17 and pene can be from 2 to 1.5 cut off. If you can track and they shuffle like they are also on holidays you may be in luck. Stay sharp and keep your eyes open. Watch out for large floating ice cubes that AREN'T in your glass! grin

enjoy.......

"North, to Alaska, we're goin' North, the rush is on"

Re: Shoving off soon!
Posted by Learning to count on 17-Mar-2003 11:01:34 (#3491)

Hey Rob could you ask around and see if anyone has recently been on a RC cruise. Carnival is 8 deck and norwegion is six. I heard that RC is two and six I just wanted a confirmation on the conditions. Thanks LTC

Re: Shoving off soon!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Mar-2003 11:43:09 (#3492)

I see you have already asked around in all of the right places. A friend if mine is on an RC cruise but he doesn't know blackjack from blackholes. He is basically on his yearly "fatathon" and will come back rubbing his potbelly bragging about how gluttonous he was. I wouldn't want to be on that ship if he ever fires off a wad of fecal plaque which could bounce around in the ships hull like a platter thrown by the USA discus champion until it finds a way out. He would end up being a wonderful snack for a shark or two! ;> Maybe I should call him Jonah? Another victim of the 7 deadly sins.

I'm sure your report will be the latest and greatest one re the RC conditions. I'm sure no matter what you will be facing, you'll have a trick or two up your sleeve to throw at them. Be BOLD, be BRAVE! Go forth and KICK THER'ASSS!!

hoping asss is not a baddd word?

Luck o th'Irish to Yee!! *NM*
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 17-Mar-2003 08:30:03 (#3487)

Re: Luck o th'Irish to Yee!!
Posted by The Mayor on 17-Mar-2003 15:46:32 (#3493)

Me playing a jig:

http://frognet.net/~eliot/flute/Unknown_jig.mp3

Best cheers to you all on this fine green day!

--Eliot

hey that's pretty good O ye Eliot. *NM*
Posted by hammer on 17-Mar-2003 18:16:37 (#3494)

Re: Luck o th'Irish to Yee!!
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Mar-2003 13:12:56 (#3502)

Sounded a little sad for a jig if ya ask me. Was it in a minor key for some reason Elly? I enjoy the sound of the fife and the American battle tunes that sound so well when played on it. I have a fife but have yet to master it. I can play the Yankee Doodle and Dixie, and working on Battle Hymn of the Republic. Love Battle on the Potomac (sp) fur sur. Marine Corps tune by De'Sousa, the list goes on and on.

Re: Luck o th'Irish to Yee!!
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Mar-2003 13:27:39 (#3504)

Jigs don't have a set key, they are in 6/8 time -- any key will do. That one, as you guessed, was a minor key, E minor to be specific. Reels are in 4/4, slip jigs in 9/8, etc. If you are interested, visit www.thesession.org for more information, I post there often.

--Mayor

Question for Mayor, or anyone
Posted by CanKen on 17-Mar-2003 19:00:12 (#3496)

I posted the following Mar 14 in the "LSR strategy Qs" thread. It didn't seem to get tagged as "New", so you may have missed it:

Question for canken? ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 18-Mar-2003 06:33:06 (#3497)

Why have you not signed up on CC.COM? Please be our guest and become a member by creating a profile. It's FREE!

Re: Question for canken?
Posted by CanKen on 18-Mar-2003 13:39:54 (#3505)

Thanks for the encouragement. I'll do it right away. I guess up till now I've hesitated because I didn't think I had much to offer compared to others who post here.

Re: Question for canken?
Posted by Learning to count on 18-Mar-2003 13:57:01 (#3506)

Heck CK I was a ploppie when I started. I was the worst kind I used to use basic strategy and a Martingale to bet with. WHEW! Everyone can learn and every one can teach. The main thing, as the illustrious mayor has reaffirmed, is to take the casinos money away. Welcome to tHe site!!!!!! LTC

Re: Question for canken?
Posted by Hinoon on 19-Mar-2003 13:04:51 (#3507)

Gotta agree with LTC. I'm the worst kind of neophyte, and have been treated with nothing but gentle guidance and solid advice. I typically don't understand half the math that is discussed here, but I'm learning every day. The whole "gambler's ruin" discussion was a real eye-opener to me.

Just by participating within the community, I've gained a healthy dose of respect for the Advantage Players out there, and a new perspective on this whole "game". But don't fear being new/uninformed. These guys will set you straight.

Explaining things in the simplest terms to new players helps reinforce/clarify the complex and often counterintuitive methodology that everyone here is working on mastering. But ya gotta be in it to win it, as they say.

back to the grind

Re: Question for Mayor, or anyone
Posted by The Mayor on 18-Mar-2003 09:12:57 (#3500)

There was a great article by Math Prof on bj21, it won "Post of the Month" which described the optimal strategy for playing the shoe, and argued convincingly that one should play 2 hands (at least) on a shoe game.

Now, to your questions:

>I think I understand the benefits of this when you have an advantage, but are you saying that it is good strategy off the top when you are at a disadvantage?

Yes, but rather than going back and forth between 1 and 2 hands, here is another strategy. Play 2x$10 to 2x$40 on 2 spots, and leave the shoe when the count goes below -1. This is not quite "wonging" where you wait for a table to have a +2 count before sitting down, and I encourage you to "wong" as well. But, the secret, only play with a -1 count or higher, and feel free to table hop. That, combined with LSR and playing 2 hands instead of 1 (which greatly reduces variance) and you will almost have a day job.

>What about the case where the rules say you have to bet twice the minimum on each if you play two spots?

No difference, just do it.

In practice, you want to always play 2 hands or else you will anger your opponents (oops, the ploppies). If your max bet is 1 hand of $50, then with two hands you can play 2x$40 or 2x$35 (this is not quite right, but close), and get more money on the table with roughly the same win rate, but much less variance. Play 2 hands, play that way all the time, but leave bad shoes, don't sit through them. Dropping back to 1x$5 is about a clear a signal to the pit as having a sign that says "counter here" flashing over your head.

I play this way almost all the time (though a different max bet).

--Mayor

Re: Question for Mayor, or anyone
Posted by stevedicey on 19-Mar-2003 18:27:11 (#3509)

dear mr. mayor--hope your doing well. my question. if your
at a three dollar table and want to play all the spots
do you have an advantage or not. regards to you eliot.
stevedicey

Re: Question for Mayor, or anyone
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Mar-2003 21:48:34 (#3510)

If you are counting, or using some other playing method that gives you the advantage (e.g. shuffle tracking), then yes, you have the advantage. Otherwise not.

UK Two hand spread
Posted by Guy on 18-Mar-2003 08:30:56 (#3498)

Hi all,

I have been playing in the UK for about 18 months, recently I have increased my spread and started playing two hands.

Conditions are 6 decks d9,10,11 DAS, s17, no hole card, pen 1-1.5.

Using hi-lo with the top 6 variations, I bet 5 at <+1, 15 at+1, 50 at +2 100 at +3 125 at +4 175 at +5 and 200 at >=+6

I am forced to play through most negative situations because casino typically only has one table and wonging in and out of one table causes heat. I usually only play one hand on counts less than 1 but sometimes have to play 2 because most casinos here insist on a minimum of two hands at the table.

I ran some sims using BJ analyser and came up with expected win rate of about �60 per 100 hands, also estimate I need about �12K bank role.

Can anybody tell me if my sums are right, I've had a poor last 60 hours resulting in a �600 loss. Suspect this is just the god of standard deviation but some morral support would be useful.

Also an easy to use formula for calculating win rate and risk of ruin would be cool.

Thanks,

Guy

Re: UK Two hand spread ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Mangement on 18-Mar-2003 08:53:24 (#3499)

Welcome to CC.COM. We would like to invite you to sign up and create a profile. Join our group! It's free! We are united in playing 21 with skill and knowledge.

another math prof..
Posted by hammer on 18-Mar-2003 11:40:41 (#3501)

You can count on him

Math expert coolly juggles scientific puzzles and six or seven balls

By Bruce V. Bigelow
STAFF WRITER

March 18, 2003

For Ron Graham, life is a balancing act.

After a 37-year career at Bell Labs in New Jersey, Graham joined the University of California San Diego in 1999 as the Jacobs-endowed Professor of Computer and Information Science.

Ronald L. Graham
Age: 67.

Birthplace: Taft, Calif.

Education: Ph.D. in Mathematics, 1962, University of California Berkeley.

Family: Married to Fan Chung Graham, also a renowned mathematician. Has two children from a previous marriage, daughter Che, and son Marc.

Personal: Graham learned to speak Mandarin so well that he can pass himself off as Chinese in telephone conversations. A 1979 paper by Graham described the concept of an "Erdos number," showing how closely a mathematician was tied to the Hungarian genius Paul Erdos. Graham's concept was later popularized by a game, "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon," that tests players' ability to tie any actor to the star of "Diner," "A Few Good Men" and "Hollow Man."

Aside from teaching and publishing research (about 300 academic papers and five books so far), Graham carries a top-heavy load of other professional commitments.

He is the chief scientist at Cal-(IT)2, the vaunted California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology established at UCSD and UC Irvine. He is the treasurer of the National Academy of Sciences, president of the Mathematical Association of America and he sits on the editorial boards of more than 40 mathematics and computer science journals.

As chief scientist at Cal-(IT)2, Graham oversees research into optical computing and next-generation networking technologies � work that is followed closely by Ericsson, Broadcom, SAIC and other telecommunications giants. With his extensive industry contacts, Graham also has been helpful rounding up corporate support for the new center for network engineering that Cal-(IT)2 hopes to announce this year.

It can all be a bit unwieldy at times.

Graham often fields calls on his cell phone as he walks across campus and responds to e-mails with a wireless hand-held device. Yet the tall sandy-haired professor remains unflappable, even serene, amid the cacophony of demands that he juggles each day.

He is fond of saying, "Juggling is a metaphor." Yet, as an expert juggler and erstwhile magician, Graham also takes his juggling literally.

He can juggle six balls consistently, sometimes seven. The world record is 12, although that was for only a dozen catches. Only an elite group of jugglers has mastered nine.

Juggling, at any rate, is an important part of Graham's identity.

He was quick to mention in a recent interview that he is a past president of the International Juggling Association, though that was years ago. The renowned mathematician and computer scientist also is known for his acrobatic feats, which include a triple-back somersault on trampoline and one-handed handstand on a swiveling pedestal.

"Juggling is sometimes called the art of controlling patterns, controlling patterns in time and space," Graham said. "Math is sometimes called the science of patterns."

Understanding patterns has been helpful in his career as a mathematician and computer technology visionary.

Much of his work has focused on applying mathematics in new ways to optimize communications networks. The scope of his career has spanned the days of analog telephony, when voice signals were sent over wires, to the digital age, with ordinary calls and data both transmitted as bits across packet-switched networks.

"At AT&T, we looked at questions like how do you route long-distance calls to take advantage of the fact that there are different time zones in different parts of the country," Graham recalled. "If it's 9 a.m. in New York City and 6 a.m. in Los Angeles, it might be easier to route long-distance calls from New York to Washington, D.C., through L.A."

Today, Graham added, "There are a lot of mathematical questions that come up when you're driving around, and you're leaving one cell site and connecting to another."

The field of discrete mathematics, which has evolved to address a host of problems in networking, is also used now to design the microcircuitry for components on VLSI (very large scale integration) computer chips, Graham said. It has even been applied to create 3-dimensional designs of shafts and tunnels in complex mining operations and in designing the complex network of heating and air-conditioning ducts in high-rise buildings.

In January, the American Mathematical Society cited Graham's work in discrete mathematics when it awarded him the 2003 Steele Prize for Lifetime Achievement. Graham has also received the Polya Prize, Euler medal and other awards for his work in combinatorics, number theory, graph theory, algorithms and combinatorial geometry.

Graham's accomplishments have been extraordinary, perhaps even more so because his origins are so humble.

He was born in Taft, Calif., southwest of Bakersfield, where his father worked in the oil fields. The family moved frequently between California and Georgia as his father switched jobs, often working in shipyards. Eventually Graham's father joined the Merchant Marine, and he and Graham's mother divorced.

"In spite of everything, nothing can hide (Ron's) brilliance," said Fan Chung Graham, his second wife.

Fan, a frequent collaborator and renowned mathematician in her own right, said: "Many people who meet Ron for the first time guess he's from some big high society or something because he's so good at dealing with people."

Yet neither of his parents finished college, Fan said, and they couldn't help him much financially. He often took jobs delivering newspapers.

Although this young Ron Graham never stayed longer than two years at any school, his aptitude for math and science was obvious. He enrolled at the University of Chicago at age 15, the beneficiary of a Ford Foundation scholarship for gifted youth.

At Chicago, he also enrolled in a school program called Acrotheater, which ignited his lifelong passion for gymnastics, juggling and trampolining.

In 1955, Graham transferred to UC Berkeley, where he majored in electrical engineering. After a year at Cal, Graham was eligible for the draft so he enlisted in the Air Force and was sent to Alaska. He finally got his undergraduate degree in physics at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks.

Graham returned to Berkeley for his doctorate in mathematics, working his way through graduate school by performing with the "Bouncing Bears," a circus troupe's trampoline act.

Today Graham still relishes the balance and interplay between his mental interests and physical prowess.

"A lot of the high-level sports are really in your mind," he said.

That might sound like a sports cliche coming from anyone else, but it acquires a deeper meaning coming from him.

When Graham learned to bowl, for example, he soon rolled a couple of perfect games. He took up Ping-Pong and was crowned the champion of Bell Labs. He also became a better-than-average tennis player and is now a "bogey" golfer who's happy to break 90.

At Bell Labs, where other scientists walked the hallways in a collegial quest for hard problems to tackle, Graham went upside-down, walking on his hands.

"Mathematicians are not usually celebrated for their physical coordination, 'Good Will Hunting' notwithstanding," said Robert Calderbank, a longtime colleague who is now vice president of research at AT&T Labs, successor to Bell Labs. "Ron is exceptional in that regard."

It is worth interjecting at this point that Graham is still juggling � both literally and metaphorically � at 67, an age when many people would be happy to recline into elder statesman status.

That is not Graham's way, however.

"Ron is a unique character, to say the least," said UCSD Chancellor Robert C. Dynes, who recruited Graham to San Diego after working with him in the 1980s when Dynes was Bell Labs' director of chemical physics research.

When a problem looks especially daunting, Graham is fond of saying, "Well, as you know, there are 24 hours in every day. And if that's not enough, you've always got the nights!"

AT&T's Calderbank said Graham's solution to solving complex math problems is similar to the way he mastered juggling and many other endeavors.

"He works at it systematically," Calderbank said. In juggling, for example, "he takes a maneuver and breaks it down into component parts and practices each component until he masters it. Then he reassembles each part and works at that until he can accomplish the whole maneuver."

When Graham began at Bell Labs in the early 1960s, "the partial differential equation was the important thing," Calderbank said. "Today, it's the representation of that equation in the computer that's important. Ron really led that transformation."

It sounds esoteric, but Graham faced some practical problems at the time.

For example, AT&T was required to set tariffs for "private lines" (which typically connected one corporation's various operations) on the most efficient route possible instead of the route that was most convenient to the phone company.

Such problems are variations of mathematics' infamous "traveling salesman problem," which seeks to find the most-efficient route through 50 cities. The possible combinations are astronomical.

Graham found inspiration in a quiet, 70-year-old corner of pure mathematics known as "Ramsey theory" that has to do with identifying unexpected patterns in apparently random mathematical situations.

For example, if someone arranges the numbers 1 through 101 in any random order, Ramsey theory guarantees there will always be at least 11 numbers in an order of some kind, either increasing or decreasing.

Ramsey theory desn't necessarily provide a single solution to complex networking problems. Yet it can provide a solution that falls within the optimal range of possible answers.

Using Ramsey theory to solve networking problems is not something Graham has been doing much lately.

Still, he says there are more than enough important math problems to go around. The hard part these days is deciding which problems are the best ones to work on.

Bruce Bigelow:

Another Genius
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 18-Mar-2003 13:14:41 (#3503)

working for millionaires. Sorry, billionaires.

how many at table to play.
Posted by stevedicey on 19-Mar-2003 18:19:22 (#3508)

i was reading in a bj book that in a 6 deck shoe game thet
you want a full seven players because you get deeper
penetration after the cut card comes out and the dealer
busts more when you go seven spots instead of playing
head to head w/the dealer. any comments.sourse is cutting
edge blackjace. by richard harvey. regards to all.
stevedicey.

Re: how many at table to play.
Posted by The Mayor on 19-Mar-2003 21:50:33 (#3511)

If Harvey indeed said:
"the dealer busts more when you go seven spots"

then I suggest you buy another book.

--Mayor

Harvey is garbage *NM*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 20-Mar-2003 07:34:38 (#3512)

Re: how many at table to play.
Posted by Rutager on 21-Mar-2003 05:22:45 (#3517)

Well, just to be a devil's advocate...

The dealer DOES bust more with more players. The reason is because there are less times when every player busts out and the dealer doesn't have to play his hand.

Of course, this doesn't affect a player's advantage whatsoever and has no real affect on the game. But I thought I'd be the annoying one to nitpick. ;o)

Rutager

Sounds like a Voodoo troll!
Posted by learning to count on 21-Mar-2003 08:35:58 (#3519)

Listen you just had three Masters of the SCIENCE of advantage play try and advise you that the book is trash and the theory is voodoo. If you don't want to believe them that is your right. I suggest you read several of the books listed as resource material at this site and purchase them through a reputable dealer as the LVBear has suggested. After reading these books then try and learn the the theories involved. The problem with gamblers is that they are afraid to learn something new. Granted the theory of card counting was developed by PHD intellects, but there has been thousands of pages, if not millions, of "how to books" and other documents of how to count cards. The first inclination given that a book is full of shite is that they make it seem so easy and they make comments that are based on playing experience and not mathmatical evaluation. A good book to see the mathmatics behind advantage play is BlackJack Attack second edition by Don Schlesinger. It is an incredible source material if not an eye opener education. SO be it! STOP THE VOODOO! SAY NO TO HUNCHES! GIVE COUNTING A CHANCE! LTC

Re: Sounds like a Voodoo troll!
Posted by Rutager on 22-Mar-2003 20:32:20 (#3538)

Geez... calm down...

I was just being a smart a$$ and pointing out that the sentence "the dealer busts more when you go seven spots" is technically true.

However, I am well aware that this has no effect on the game and an author that tries to pass this stuff off as 'stategy' should be chained to a 6:5 bj table and forced to play for the rest of his life.

I've been called a lot of things in my life, but I think it's safe to say that this is the first time I've been called a 'voodoo troll'. :o)

Rutager

Re: how many at table to play.
Posted by The Mayor on 21-Mar-2003 09:42:47 (#3521)

I believe you are right, sir. But the dealer only busts more because he is forced to play out his hand. Of the hands played out, the number is just about the same, regardless.

Richard Harvey books ... *LINK*
Posted by LVBear584 on 20-Mar-2003 13:54:47 (#3513)

... are worthless ripoffs.

Avoid any books by Richard Harvey, John Patrick, Jerry Patterson, and Donald Dahl. Their books do not have mathematically valid strategies, and have a lot of misinformation and superstition.

Legitimate blackjack authors include Stanford Wong, Arnold Snyder, Don Schlesinger, Ian Andersen, Bryce Carlson, Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs. There are several others, but not with books that are currently available.

Here's a link for a source of worthwhile books and products.

Re: how many at table to play.
Posted by Rutager on 20-Mar-2003 21:13:47 (#3514)

I'm used to playing single deck games in the Reno area where the number of players at a table matters a lot.

However, what I don't know, is for a 6 deck game, does the number of people at the table affect your edge very much (other than number of hands per hour)?

The only time I ever really play 6 deck is when I'm am wonging like crazy, so I prefer places that are crowded enought that I can blend in.

Rutager

Northern NV hit-and-run
Posted by Running Count on 20-Mar-2003 21:17:15 (#3515)

A quick LV prep trip took me and a few buds to northern NV for a quick night. Wanted to pass along a couple interesting things...

First, the gruesome report: I'm down 66 units, which isn't much in the long run, but it was psychologically grueling because I lost at least 8 units at every single joint. steady losses worse then huge ups and downs? not sure... Still up overall in my 4-month counter life, though.

But anyway, some odd sights:

<ul><li>A truck stop casino w/ SD, DA2, DAS, LSR, RSA, and 6-card charlie (I swear). And I still lost $40. And the pit boss still breathed down my neck for spreading a measly 2-15.</li>

<li>A woman at a upscale casino who tried unsuccessfully to pry her sister away from the table, screaming "You need to feed your kids, you stupid b___." The sister then stormed off, but not before hurling her cocktail glass at her sibling, shattering it all over the table, other customers, and rug.</li>

<li>Another local joint where they were doing construction during the grave shift and when I asked the dealer how she dealt (no pun intended) with the constant jackhammering, she began to weep.</li>

<li>A gas station put "ARM" and "LEG" in their price chart for premium and superpremium.</li>

<li>I asked the boss at my favorite casino if I could get comped breakfast and he told me my comp account was at minus $55.</li></ul>

As for table conditions, they were average. No fantasic penetration on the SD games, but good rules. Cards never seems to flip my way this time, though. Hoping for more luck in LV.

Cheers in counter-land,

Re: Northern NV hit-and-run
Posted by Coug It on 21-Mar-2003 00:38:21 (#3516)

What town(s) do you consider as "Northern NV"? Sounds like fun.

Re: Northern NV hit-and-run
Posted by Rutager on 21-Mar-2003 05:35:22 (#3518)

Yup, I've been to that truck stop you speak of. Really good rules, mediocre penetration. But I can't pass off as a trucker, so the pit boss stared me down since before I sat down at a table. Plus, everyone will stop what they're doing and stare at you if you try to bet more that 30 bucks.

So I decided it's probably best never to go back and just tell tales of that magical truck stop that had surrender on their single deck game.

Rutager

Question for Running Count
Posted by LVBear584 on 21-Mar-2003 11:29:30 (#3523)

At the low stakes you're playing at, the Reno/Sparks games you referred to are the best in the world.

WHY would you want to come to Las Vegas, where the games are horrible for the level of play you described, other than about three dumpy, downtown stores?

At the level you described, you can play in Reno and Sparks indefinitely. The truck stop is particularly sweaty, as you found out. So are Boomtown, Peppermill, Sundowner, and JA Nugget. But you should be able to play unnoticed almost anywhere else in Reno and Sparks, as long as you don't camp out at the table.

Save your travel expenses, play in Reno and Sparks.

Answer
Posted by Running Count on 21-Mar-2003 17:16:28 (#3529)

I'm going to LV for fun, not profit (but one can hope). Never been there before. I plan to check out the downtown dumps you speak of, but mostly I'll be there to gawk at the gaudiness of the strip and try to wong my way into a couple positive shoes.

Oh yeah, and coupons, coupons, coupons.

Re: Northern NV hit-and-run
Posted by wong out on 22-Mar-2003 17:44:26 (#3536)

Isnt "upscale casino" and reno/sparks somewhat of an oxymoron??

good luck in vegas!

HEAR YE HEAR YE HEAR YE ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 21-Mar-2003 09:04:32 (#3520)

CHECK OUT THE "VALUABLE VEGAS INFO" PAGES. HERE YOU WILL FIND EVERYTHING LAS VEGAS BY STEVE AND EILEEN. VIVA LAS VEGAS BY BILLHERE PUBLISHING. LA TIMES LAS VEGAS SPECIALS REPORT BY PHIL PHELDMAN AND VEGAS LINKS.

ALL THREE SITES ARE LINKED HERE AND ARE VALUABLE RESOURCES FOR PLANNING YOUR VEGAS VACATION. FEEL FREE TO SUBSCRBE TO THEM. THEY ARE FREE. THESE NEWSLETTERS ARE ON TOP OF THE VEGAS SCENE!

Re: HEAR YE HEAR YE HEAR YE
Posted by The Mayor on 21-Mar-2003 09:46:49 (#3522)

Nice addition. A good place for advertising 8-)

Great addition! *NM*
Posted by Adam N. Subtractum on 22-Mar-2003 02:45:02 (#3531)

Its Getting Ugly
Posted by SammyBoy on 21-Mar-2003 14:47:10 (#3524)

I'm now down for the year after getting off to a good start! I've had some really rough sessions the last few weeks. I'm playing a good single deck game with very good penetration and still getting killed. I'm very confident in my counting skills, but I'm getting really bad cards. When I do get that rare 20 the dealer has 20 or draws to 21. I'm getting very few blackjacks, only 3 in about 5 hours of play and the dealer also had blackjack on one of those. I'm beginning to wonder if the shuffle used by the casino I play in is hurting me. It seems like the cards are clumping. My last 3 sessions really have me scratching my head.

Re: Its Getting Ugly
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 21-Mar-2003 15:02:58 (#3525)

You know what you are doing by counting, betting, etc, but often it is the overlooked things that can kill you, and maybe you have spotted it already. You seem to think you are not getting the cards in a random fashion. Clumping is out of the question in a one deck game, and clumping itself is a four letter word. Maybe the dealer is a sharp and he is running you into the ground. Do you always end up with the same dealer? That is a reason that a play log has "Dealer" in it. Why do I always lose when Harry deals and do well when Sally deals?

I thought you were talking about the war with your message title "Its Getting Ugly."

"By the rivers of Babylon......"

Re: Its Getting Ugly
Posted by SammyBoy on 21-Mar-2003 15:19:47 (#3526)

The dealer has not been a factor the last few sessions.

Re: Its Getting Ugly
Posted by Rob McGarvey on 21-Mar-2003 15:27:28 (#3527)

Then it is just the game. The cross hair falls at +1% advantage but anything can happen when you are playing. When we are winning we thing its skill and when we are not we think its ?? Have you changed the size of your bets since your BR took a hit? Your RoR is getting higher if you have not done so. Careful. We should make up a contract that once you start to play BJ seriously you have to go long run. Many a counter has found himself behind by a bunch of G's and thrown in the towel.

Everything means nothing if you don't intend to play for the long run.

Excellent Points, Thanks. *NM*
Posted by SammyBoy on 21-Mar-2003 16:13:41 (#3528)

AGREE!
Posted by phantom007 on 22-Mar-2003 02:09:32 (#3530)

If you are a decent Counter, and are developing "the cards are not falling my way mentality"...as most ALL of us "regulars" have, from time to time, then, quite simply, either:

(1) You are making mistakes...in Counting (rare), Indicies (common), and/or too many camifloge plays (intermediate). For example, for the last 2+ years, I have used AOII-+6/-6 for most of my SD/DD play. About 6 weeks ago, further study revealed that I had been making the WRONG play with 16 vs. Dealer 10 in most + Counts between +1 and +5.

(2) You have not played enough hands!

In your case, I suspect #2 is most likely. By your previous posts, you ain't no amateur! You are simply experiencing the R0R "negative fluctuation".

IMHO!

phantom007.

Re: AGREE!
Posted by wong out on 22-Mar-2003 17:37:18 (#3535)

Sammy Boy:

"I only got 3 BJs in 5 hours". Much too short of a time frame; losing streaks that stretch over hundreds of hours are common enough that every serious player will likely experience one or more. A few weeks ago on my way to "shock and awe" the casino I started off with a shoe where the dealer had an ace up on 9 or 10 of the 1st 13 hands; is there any doubt that things were going the dealer's way through no fault of my own; I think that the dealer had 4 or 5 BJs during this stretch; I hung in there because the count remained positive (guess who got all the low cards?).

BTW - that wasnt my worst shoe of the eve since I lost mostly low bets; I started the final shoe down about 75 units for the evening and pulled almost even during the 1st half of the last shoe. The count jumped through the roof on the 1st deck and kept going up (really a killer but I was making the hands with some nice bets); anyhow the count started falling on the last half of the shoe and I got creamed with lots of 17/18/19s losing to the dealers 20 and occasional snapper. On the final hand I lay out 45 units spread over 3 hands and pulled 3 11's to the dealers 10. Doubled all 3 and spiked 3 aces in a row (now they come out); to make a long story short I took it on the chin that eve. Welcome to 21 land!

You can't let short term results affect your psyche. Play a winning game and keep the spread up and the results will (should) come your way. This is a tough game indeed!

vacation
Posted by Jim on 23-Mar-2003 05:21:26 (#3539)

I was on vacation this past week. Sunday I won 62 units. Monday I lost 58 units. Wednesday I won 74 units. Saturday I lost 70 units......oh well

Re: vacation ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 23-Mar-2003 09:52:19 (#3542)

Sound like the deviation rollercoaster. Why have you not signed up on CC.COM? Please be our guest and become a member by creating a profile. It's FREE!

Re: Its Getting Ugly
Posted by BradRod on 24-Mar-2003 11:29:45 (#3552)

>>>>>>>>> You seem to think you are not getting the cards in a random fashion. Clumping is out of the question in a one deck game, and clumping itself is a four letter word <<<<<<<<<<

Hey Rob,

are there games where clumping may be practiced ? multi deck games ? or is absolutley not done in the industry ?

I have recently discovered a 2 deck automatic shuffler game not far from me. I have not had the opportunity to play 2 deck before and would like to try it. What are the differences in basic strategy between a 6 deck and 2 deck game ? also i observed the penetration to be about 1 deck . is this good for a 2 deck shoe ?

BradRod

Re: Its Getting Ugly
Posted by Cyrano on 24-Mar-2003 12:15:59 (#3553)

Hi Brad,

I'd like to take a stab at some of your inquiries and please correct me if I'm mistaken at any point...

All the literature and websites I've seen suggest that clumping, itself, is something that is not exploitable. What I mean is, if you see 3 10's come out, you can't just assume that a fourth 10 will also come out. However, this doesn't mean that "clumping" doesn't happen. Shuffle-tracking is a derivative of clumping. You follow a "clump of high-numbered cards" through a shoe and a shuffle and try to cut the cards to a place that's favorable to you. Often, shuffle-tracking is employed in multi-deck games (6 and 8D games), though several authors suggest that many casinos have taken steps to eliminate shuffle tracking (by employing a more sophisticated, or as you've pointed out, shuffling machines).

As far as 2D games are concerned, I mainly play 1D games, since as is often the case, 1 and 2D games have similar rules and the addition of the 1 extra deck means I'm losing .38%, assuming Vegas rules (according to "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book"). As far as learning BS for the 2D game, check out this link: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bj21bse.htm . You can use your 6D BS on a 2D game and lose very little in terms of EV--you won't notice the difference. The penetration for the game you mentioned, though, seems poor. One deck dealt out of two is 50% penetration: I doubt many counters would play that game.

Anyway, hope this helps!

-C

are there games where clumping may be practiced ? multi deck games ? or is absolutley not done in the industry ?

BradRod

Re: Its Getting Ugly
Posted by BradRod on 24-Mar-2003 15:53:08 (#3558)

thanks cyrano

your comments made sense to me and thanks for the link. as far as clumping goes though i was trying to satisfy myself that it is not a practice that can be used by the casinos. if a player finds a way to exploit it more power to him / her / me.

given the choice then between a 2 deck game with poor penetration and a comparable rules 6 deck game with very good penetration it seems that the right choice would be the 6 deck game

MEGA BUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!! ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by SPECIAL REPORT on 22-Mar-2003 08:42:17 (#3532)

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Re: MEGA BUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by Learning to count on 22-Mar-2003 08:54:18 (#3533)

The Casinos must be really hurting to let this one go so high! The ploppies will be ravenous to lose more money. "Hey Moe it's Megabucks, give me ten bucks so I can a be a instant millionaire"! This is LV Casino hype! I wonder if the chump is a shill??? I dont trust em anymore...Casinos and their Random Number Generators.

Re: MEGA BUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by The Mayor on 22-Mar-2003 11:05:37 (#3534)

There is a product designed for every appetite. The marketing research that goes in to the creation of these products should stand as a model to corporations of all types ... get people to spend money on something essentially worthless. Brilliant.

--Mayor

Lucky Ladies question- Panama Rick or others
Posted by bjcounter2003 on 22-Mar-2003 19:19:48 (#3537)

Hi:

Wonder if somebody knew the TC at which Lucky Ladies becomes a break-even bet using either the Hi-Opt II or AOII. My guess is about +10 based on the Hi-Lo numbers. Numbers for 2 deck would be appreciated.

TIA,
Bjcounter2003

Re: Lucky Ladies question- Panama Rick or others
Posted by The Mayor on 23-Mar-2003 09:35:14 (#3540)

Are you playing 6D (yes). Are you keeping a sidecount of QH? I don't have the ability to run sims, but for practical purposes, you can go with +10 if the QH are there at their normal ratio, and let it drift down if their are a lot of QH, and let it drift up if you have seen a few QH.

I believe Panama Rick is available at bj21.com if you want him to run the sim for you.

--Mayor

Re: Lucky Ladies question- Panama Rick or others ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 23-Mar-2003 09:49:52 (#3541)

Why have you not signed up on CC.COM? Please be our guest and become a member by creating a profile. It's FREE!

The results you are after!!!
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Mar-2003 16:29:02 (#3559)

I wrote the program, it only took 4 hours today 8-)

Here are the results for Hi-Opt II, 2 decks. Lucky Ladies. You are right, a TC of 10 is just what the doctor ordered.

Anything else I can do for you?

--Mayor

 

Lucky Ladies Report 

******************* 

Number of decks: 2 

Penetration: 66 cards. 

Payoff schedule:  

  Any 20:        4-to-1 

  Suited 20:     10-to-1 

  Matched 20:    25-to-1 

  QH pair:       200-to-1 

  QH pair + BJ:  1000-to-1 

 

 

TC      %EV     FREQ 

0       -32.9   6.07659e+07 

1       -21.83  8.30411e+06 

2       -19.37  6.72695e+06 

3       -16.67  5.19253e+06 

4       -15.18  3.88077e+06 

5       -11.51  3.25061e+06 

6       -9.38   2.59516e+06 

7       -7.11   2.05205e+06 

8       -3.89   1.50108e+06 

9       -0.48   1.33116e+06 

10      1       1.04492e+06 

11      3.87    794465 

12      5.76    305892 

13      9.24    675421 

14      12.09   402465 

15      15.48   316013 

16      21.42   240749

My results for Hi-Lo 6Deck (comare with Panama Rick)
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Mar-2003 16:47:46 (#3560)

Note, I go up a full TC at a time, but these line up pretty well.

 

Lucky Ladies Report 

******************* 

Number of decks: 6 

Penetration: 240 cards. 

Payoff schedule:  

  Any 20:        4-to-1 

  Suited 20:     9-to-1 

  Matched 20:    19-to-1 

  QH pair:       125-to-1 

  QH pair + BJ:  1000-to-1 

 

 

TC        %EV     FREQ 

---------------------------- 

<=0     -28.71%  1.44088e+08 

1       -19.56%  2.3969e+07 

2       -15.83%  1.36156e+07 

3       -11.90%  7.72443e+06 

4        -8.12%  4.50111e+06 

5        -4.32%  2.68146e+06 

6         0.15%  1.4849e+06 

7         4.73%  899719 

8         9.70%  482504 

9        15.40%  259013 

10       17.22%  153672 

11       26.77%  72400 

12       29.97%  27517 

13       33.99%  26059

===================================
Panama Rick

 

0.0	-24.81%	34,029,986	 

0.5	-23.07%	25,757,079	 

1.0	-21.26%	18,823,776	 

1.5	-19.44%	13,957,450	 

2.0	-17.60%	10,484,635	 

2.5	-15.69%	7,833,932	 

3.0	-13.77%	5,761,272	 

3.5	-11.85%	4,481,048	 

4.0	-9.87%	3,317,595	 

4.5	-7.85%	2,498,989	 

5.0	-5.79%	1,885,269	 

5.5	-3.74%	1,397,591	 

6.0	-1.66%	1,035,229	 

6.5	0.50%	797,833		 

7.0	2.72%	578,783		 

7.5	4.91%	417,682		 

8.0	7.08%	313,499		 

8.5	9.27%	221,484		 

9.0	11.57%	170,614		 

9.5	13.93%	105,475		 

10.0	16.24%	84,955		 

10.5	18.73%	60,349		 

11.0	21.26%	41,676		 

11.5	23.71%	26,872		 

12.0	26.24%	19,184		 

12.5	28.61%	13,330		 

13.0	30.95%	8,402		 

13.5	33.51%	5,973

Re: My results for Hi-Lo 6Deck (comare with Panama Rick)
Posted by Learning to count on 24-Mar-2003 20:50:27 (#3565)

Heres another one that goes in my file of Blackjack science. Thanks Mayor I will hold this close to my wallet. I once recieved the queen of hearts pair the dealer had a ten up but turned over 6 then a ten to bust. 125 to one was not bad. I bet the side bet based on advise from his Honor the Mayor. So I can attest to the results at hand! LTC

Re: The results you are after!!!
Posted by bjcounter2003 on 24-Mar-2003 22:34:29 (#3567)

Mayor:

Thanks for your assistance. I have the luxury of playing the lucky ladies on a deeply dealt 2 deck game. I think there's a possibility to really exploit this side bet. Thanks again.

BjCounter

How about The strike numbers for KO!!!!!! *NM*
Posted by Learning to count on 25-Mar-2003 06:51:49 (#3570)

BJ Game
Posted by Ron on 23-Mar-2003 22:04:19 (#3543)

I'm trying to find a BJ game where I can practice and play one to two hands.
The games I find to practice on limit me to one hand. Can anyone suggest a program.

Re: BJ Game ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 24-Mar-2003 05:38:16 (#3544)

Casino Verite is one of the main computer programs and probably one of the most popular. This is made by Q-fit and can be purchased through BJ21.com. THis would be good time for you to create a profile and join the club. Its free and the rewards are great$$$$$!!!!!

Re: BJ Game *LINK* *PIC*
Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 24-Mar-2003 06:22:22 (#3545)

I do not allow BJ21 to sell CV. It can be purchased at www.qfit.com or advantageplayer.com, gamblersbook.com, conjelco.com, and bjrnet.com.

Norm Wattenberger ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by Management on 24-Mar-2003 06:30:10 (#3547)

Sorry Mr. Wattenberger we were mistaken. Thanks for comming on and posting! We would be honored if you would create a profile and place your link to your web site there.

Re: BJ Game
Posted by Guy on 24-Mar-2003 08:57:27 (#3549)

Casino Vertite, qfit.com is excellent.

Guy

Re: BJ Game
Posted by panthercounter on 24-Mar-2003 14:51:21 (#3557)

Casino verite is great for training. You can practice counting, betting strategies, etc. A must have......

Re: BJ Game
Posted by Learning to count on 24-Mar-2003 20:45:45 (#3564)

Hey Cuz thats my copy of CV your using! Practice hard. Verite is a definite must for anyone serious about this thing we do! We need to have a CC.COM gambling degenerate fiesta in vegas this summer anyone interested. How about some ideas!

Re: BJ Game
Posted by panthercounter on 24-Mar-2003 22:13:23 (#3566)

We need to have a cc.com convergence on the Western and the El Cortez. Nothing better than the hot desert sun and the winning of black jack hands.

Re: BJ Game
Posted by hammer on 25-Mar-2003 10:08:26 (#3573)

That would be fun tons of great players at the dump. The ec will be
scrambling kicking out all, but we will out number them.
Lets do it.

Re: BJ Game
Posted by Stephen Bauer on 24-Mar-2003 20:41:31 (#3563)

Ron,
You might as well just go ahead and get the CV software. Its' expensive but there is no other program that gives you the same flexibility. No matter what part of your game your developing. It has many options that a young counter may not have even considered, which will be there when you find out later that you need it. I have 5 different blackjack programs on my computer, but when I go to practice I always find myself bringing up CV.

Stephen Bauer

Re: BJ Game
Posted by Ron on 25-Mar-2003 13:06:43 (#3578)

I already purchased it yesterday. It�s the best training program I�ve seen so far. Thanks for the help in finding it.
Ron

Ron we need you to support the cause! ADMIN>AdminPost
Posted by management on 25-Mar-2003 13:36:47 (#3580)

Join CC.COM and ally yourself with the movement! We aim to win! Card Counting is the way to do it and CC.COM is the site to help. Join it's free!

Expected win rate
Posted by Guy on 24-Mar-2003 08:56:20 (#3548)

Hi all,

Can anybody tell me, if I play one hour with one hand (IE 100 hands) and expect to win X if it is true to say that if I play one hour with two hands (IE 200 hands) that my expected win rate is 2X, assuming of course I bet the same amounts at the same counts in both cases?

Guy

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Mar-2003 09:36:10 (#3550)

This is false. The reason is "covariance" -- the two hands are not independent. They both win/lose together quite often (e.g. if the dealer busts they both win, if the dealer gets BJ, they both lose).

The correct "equivalence" taking covariance into consideration is that 1 hand at $30 is the same as 2 hands at $20 each.

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Guy on 24-Mar-2003 09:56:52 (#3551)

Thanks Mayor,

Sorry if I'm being thick with this.

I can understand how covarience effects the SD and therefore the optimal bet for size of bank roll.

But am struggling with how the number of hands in play effects the expected win/loss rate per hour of play (not per hand).

For example if I flat bet $10 using just basic stratergy I would expect to loose at about 0.5% per hand or 5 cents per hand, right. So if I play two hands would I not expect to still loose at about 0.5% 5 cents for each hand ?

You comments greatly appreciated.

Guy

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Mar-2003 18:00:25 (#3561)

The circumstance of playing two hands at once against the same dealer hand is not the same as playing two hands on two different tables. In the second case they are independent events, in the first case they are not. That's all there is to it.

--Mayor

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Cyrano on 24-Mar-2003 12:37:29 (#3555)

I'm not sure I follow, Mayor. Perhaps I've misunderstood, but it would seem to me that the win rate would exactly be 2X. However, the deviation would be less than what the 2X deviation would be, since covariance is not a function of win rate, rather, a function of departure.

In the example you've given, I would contend that if you doubled 1 hand at $30 to 2 hands of $30, it's effectively the same as betting $60, with the win rate of $60. The only difference is, your fluctuations would be lower than the normal 1 hand of $60.

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by The Mayor on 24-Mar-2003 18:05:11 (#3562)

If you play 2 hands of $30 -- then

1) The two hands will win/lose together quite often based on the dealer's result (not the players). This is covariance.

2) The composition of one hand will affect the odds for the other hand. This is another aspect of covariance. For example, playing two hands in single deck, suppose you are dealt 7-7 to both of your hands against the dealer's T? Are you going to catch a 7? THis is an extreme example, but it underscores the hands effect on each other.

--Mayor

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Cyrano on 24-Mar-2003 23:04:58 (#3568)

I don't dispute what covariance is. A covariance of 1=the results are locked, where a covariance of 0=the hands are independent of each other (p. 202 of Professional BJ). 2 hands at the same table lies somewhere in between, according to PBJ, somewhere between 0.4-0.5. However, this does not impact EV--only volatility. Perhaps this site would explain my position better: http://www.customstrategycards.com/online_bj-br.htm --"When more than one hand is played concurrently, all the player hands hinge on a single dealer hand. The statistical measure of this relatedness is termed covariance, and it causes a substantial increase in volatility for each additional hand played."

I don't quite understand your second example, since your win/loss are not dependent of how many 7's you've used--it's dependent on what the dealer draws.

If you play 2 hands of $30 -- then

1) The two hands will win/lose together quite often based on the dealer's result (not the players). This is covariance.

--Mayor

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Guy on 25-Mar-2003 04:17:04 (#3569)

I Feel like I'm getting a bit out of my depth here, but for what it's worth here is my two penneth worth:-

I think I have read that other players at the table and their actions will not effect my expected win rate, if this is true how can a second hand played by myself have a different expected win rate than a hand played another player at the table, surley the cards don't know who's brain is making the descisions ;-)

Clearly I'm missing somehting here ?

Guy

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Cyrano on 25-Mar-2003 10:16:46 (#3574)

Extra players do not have an effect on your advantage (you will still win, say, 2 bets/100 hands played). They do, however, have an affect on your win rate, since you won't get in as many hands/hour (instead of playing 100 hands/hour, you're playing 50 hands/hour, it will take you twice as long). Hope this makes sense.

______

I Feel like I'm getting a bit out of my depth here, but for what it's worth here is my two penneth worth:-

Clearly I'm missing somehting here ?

Guy

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Guy on 26-Mar-2003 05:11:58 (#3585)

Thanks Cyrano,

So we seem to be agreed that the expected win rate per hand stays constant regardless of the number of concurrent hands being played, what does change however is the Standard Deviation and therefore the optimal bet compared to size of bank roll.

This is what I had initially supposed and had been playing on that basis, I was looking for somebody to confirm my assumptions which you have, thankyou.

Guy

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Hinoon on 26-Mar-2003 20:31:19 (#3598)

Just a quick not to say that this whole thread is an example of why this is one of the best places to learn BJ. Civil discussion, thorough answers, and accessible language. I learned a lot from this thread.

Thanks to all of the contributors.

Re: Expected win rate
Posted by Guy on 27-Mar-2003 04:54:20 (#3602)

Thank you!

Guy

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